Monday, May 16, kicks off the week with a rousing 11-game main slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups. Make sure to visit the Awesemo MLB DFS & Fantasy Baseball home page for the best MLB DFS picks and cheat sheets you need to get prepared for tonight’s slate of games.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Monday, May 16
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Chris Flexen — 4.9 implied runs
Last season, Chris Flexen was a feel-good story after Seattle took a chance on him. Flexen washed out of the Mets organization in 2019, getting his outright release after disastrous showings in three different seasons with the big club. The 27-year-old spent 2020 pitching for the Doosan Bears in the KBO, which resulted in his offer from the Mariners. Every time he is on the mound, it is an adventure with his high-contact (81.5%) and fly ball (36.2%) rates. This leads to a lot of warning-track outs, which could easily be home runs against a team like the Blue Jays.
The core four to target are at the top of the order in George Springer ($17), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($16), Teoscar Hernandez ($12) and Bo Bichette ($13). None of their salaries will be prohibitive, and we can even look at catcher Alejandro Kirk ($7) or outfield Lourdes Gurriel ($11) to further decrease the average cost of this stack.
Late Slate: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner — 5.3 implied runs
Despite seeming older than dirt, Madison Bumgarner will be celebrating his 33rd birthday in August. So far this season, he has been successful in limiting power (five doubles and four home runs) and baserunners (1.12 WHIP). However, he is walking a fine line, as his strikeouts are currently at a career-low 5.9 per nine innings.
Los Angeles is loaded with right-handed batsmen that excel against southpaws. Mookie Betts (.199 ISO), Trea Turner (.249 ISO), Justin Turner (.208 ISO) and Chris Taylor (.242 ISO) are all boasting elite power numbers. Lefties Freddie Freeman (.212 ISO) and Max Muncy (.239 ISO) also are elite in same-handed matchups.
Top MLB DFS Target: RHP Luis Severino at Baltimore Orioles — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $39 | FanDuel $8,100 | DraftKings $8,800
All three of Sunday’s recommended pitchers worked out nicely. Today, the approach can be best described as spray and pray. Luis Severino has a nice matchup against the Orioles, who have one of the weakest offenses in the league, and the renovations to Camden Yards appears to have made it a pitcher-friendly venue. Today will be the seventh start of the year for Severino, who made only seven appearances between the end of 2018 and this season. His recovery from Tommy John surgery had several setbacks, which, along with the abbreviated 2020 season, limited his opportunities.
Severino should be in line for 90 or more pitches after throwing 97 and 93 in his last two starts. He also had a dozen strikeouts while logging 9.2 innings in those appearances. If he can neutralize Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander and Trey Mancini, the rest of the projected Orioles lineup will give him access to plenty of strikeouts. The Batters of Birdland have plated only 75 runners this season, and their 3.26 runs per game are the second fewest in the league.
There are two other top-shelf options we can look to, though the way the slate is shaping up makes it hard to allocate too much salary to pitching, as there are a lot of great offensive setups as well as a game in Coors Field. Tony Gonsolin has a good matchup against Arizona; however, his salary leaves no margin for error. Freddy Peralta also projects well, and his 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings are the fifth most in the league. However, Atlanta is not an offense to be taken lightly.
While Sandy Alcantara and Corey Kluber are not on the featured DFS slate, they can be considered in the MLB player props market. There is some value to be had with their strikeout props, and the Awesemo sister site OddsShopper can help easily identify above-average opportunities.
Secondary MLB DFS Target: LHP Zach Logue vs. Minnesota Twins — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $33 | FanDuel $8,300 | DraftKings $7,800
Keep in mind that Minnesota is dealing with a lot of injuries that have stripped the depth from its Opening Day lineup. Carlos Correa (finger), Miguel Sano (knee), Trevor Larnach (groin) and Kyle Garlick (calf) are all on the injured list. Byron Buxton has been a golden god when healthy, crushing 11 home runs in just 85 at-bats. Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler are excellent complements, but that is where the talent runs out for the Twins. Gary Sanchez has struck out in 34.1% of his at-bats, and Luis Arraez rarely strikes out but also rarely gets extra-base hits.
Zach Logue came over from Toronto as part of the Matt Chapman trade, and it looks like he will be sticking in the Oakland rotation. The 26-year-old projects as a crafty lefty with just over seven strikeouts per nine innings and impeccable control with his secondary offerings. That is key because his fastball barely touches 90 mph and righties can destroy that pitch if they have the luxury of sitting on it. The Twins have scored more than four runs only once in their last 11 games. Take a chance on Logue as a second pitcher on Yahoo and DraftKings, and hope the inevitable home run or two come with the bases empty.
Wild Card MLB DFS Target: LHP Wade Miley vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $26 | FanDuel $5,700| DraftKings $4,400
This recommendation is entirely based on the ridiculously low salary for Wade Miley. The veteran southpaw missed the first month of the season with a sore elbow and made his Cubs debut last Tuesday, lasting 64 pitches. If we get 75 pitches, four innings and only a run or two allowed from Miley tonight, he will be a tremendous value for opening up the offensive side of our rosters. Pittsburgh is best against lefties, but it has averaged just 3.5 runs per game, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & Weather Notes for the Monday, May 16 Fantasy Baseball Slate
Tonight, the Cardinals – Mets game in New York is one to keep an eye on with storms in the forecast. There should be plenty of offensive fireworks, so we will need to be lucky with finding the correct pitchers who do not spontaneously combust on the mound.
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