Monday, June 6, begins the new week with the featured slate beginning at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (6/6)
Top Stack: Blue Jays at LHP Daniel Lynch — 5.5 implied runs
This is a nice matchup for the Blue Jays, who strike out at a below-average rate, against a lefty who is a below-average hurler. This season, Toronto ranks eighth with an 18.9% strikeout rate versus southpaws, while Daniel Lynch has an 18.1% strikeout rate himself. The 25-year-old is also allowing 1.29 home runs per nine innings to opposite-handed batsmen, so it is no surprise that the Jays are at the top of the Awesemo Stack Tool.
George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez and Matt Chapman are the core four to target from the right side of the plate. Catcher Alejandro Kirk is far from a discount on DraftKings, but that should keep his popularity in check. On FanDuel, gamers will stay away because he is a catcher. However, he is just $2,800 and likely to be batting fifth in a loaded lineup with the platoon advantage. Bo Bichette is also in play, though with his elevated salary, the prior five Toronto bats have priority.
Late Slate: Red Sox at RHP Noah Syndergaard — 4.5 implied runs
Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Trevor Story and Xander Bogaerts are each ranked among the top three for their respective positions in the new Awesemo Top Batters Tool. Noah Syndergaard is merely mortal these days, allowing home runs in four of his last five starts, along with a 5.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and just 16 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. He is surviving in the games where he is coaxing batters into hitting ground balls; otherwise, he is pitching with runners on base and from behind in the count. Boston is likely to employ a trio of left-handed outfielders tonight, with Alex Verdugo, Franchy Cordero and Jarren Duran all having merit depending on where they are in the batting order.
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Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: RHP Cristian Javier vs. Mariners — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $9,000
Weather could knock out the games in Cincinnati and Cleveland, which would take Hunter Greene, Jon Gray, Cal Quantrill and Madison Bumgarner out of the player pool. After two days’ worth of top-shelf pitching options, the hurlers going today all have similar projections. If we lose one or both of the games in the Midwest, a spray-and-pray approach is probably the best path forward.
Cristian Javier looks like he will be sticking in the rotation, but in his last start he displayed the inconsistent control that has kept him from a permanent starting slot. Over his last four starts he has a pair of multi-walk games, while in the other two he recorded nine strikeouts with only one walk in each. Seattle has cobbled together offensive production against right-handed hurlers, with a 116 wRC+ this season. That indicates they are creating runs 16% more efficiently than league average, which is the eighth-best mark in the league. Their projected lineup has a 24.6% strikeout rate against righties since the beginning of last season, so there is still potential upside with Javier that makes him our “best” option.
Secondary Target: LHP Blake Snell vs. Mets — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,100 | FanDuel $7,500
It is too hard to trust Robbie Ray against the Astros in Houston, even if he is the reigning American League Cy Young winner. That means taking a bit of a discount to go against a frisky Mets squad with the equally enigmatic southpaw Blake Snell, who won the 2018 American League Cy Young award. This will be the third start since returning from injury, though Snell should be able to go 90 pitches as long as he is not run from the game early by New York.
Wild Card Target: RHP Hunter Greene vs. Diamondbacks — 3.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,600 | FanDuel $7,300
Strikeouts have been coming in bunches for rookie Hunter Greene, who would be third with his 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings if he had enough innings to qualify for the leaderboard. However, Greene has issued multiple walks in seven of his 10 starts while ceding multiple home runs in four. This has led to an unsightly 6.19 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. The projected lineup for Arizona has a 24.3% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers dating back to the beginning of last year. There is risk here with the Diamondbacks also having a .211 ISO in the same timeframe. Weather is likely to take this game off the docket, which is a shame.
Additional Opportunities
Blake Snell is a target in DFS because of the way the variables are lining up tonight, but even if we land on him in that format, we can also target against him in the MLB player props market. Currently, he has a 6.5 over/under on his strikeout prop, and the Awesemo MLB Projections have him for 5.3, giving him a 76% probability of failing to exceed today’s threshold. The projected Mets lineup has a below-average 18% strikeout rate against southpaws, and if Snell is his typical less-than-efficient self, he may run up his pitch count before getting to seven strikeouts.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Carlos Carrasco at San Diego Padres
- LHP Robbie Ray at Houston Astros
- RHP Ross Stripling at Kansas City Royals (SP2 for salary relief)
One-Off Hitters
- Corey Seager at RHP Cal Quantrill (Main, weather risk)
- Christian Walker at RHP Hunter Greene (Main, weather risk)
- Jesse Winker at RHP Cristian Javier (Evening)
- Manny Machado vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco (Main, Late)
- Shohei Ohtani vs. RHP Michael Wacha (Main, Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
There are a couple of weather situations that could knock a couple of games out of our player pool tonight. Cincinnati looks like there will be showers from late afternoon into Tuesday. Cleveland is in a similar situation, though there is a better chance the precipitation holds off until late in the game. Both of these games warrant a watchful eye on the forecast as first pitch approaches.
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