Monday, July 4, starts off the wall-to-wall baseball with a game at 11:05 a.m. ET in our nation’s capital. This is followed by a three-game 1:05 p.m. ET slate that in turn leads to the standard evening action. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/4)
Main Slate: New York Mets at RHP Hunter Greene — 4.6 implied runs
The new Stokastic Top Batters Tool is highlighting several Metropolitans in their matchup against rookie Hunter Greene. While the youngster has been racking up the strikeouts with an 11.4 per-nine-innings rate, he also leads the league with 20 home runs and his 9.9% walk rate is not helping his cause either. Even with his 82.3% first strike rate, he still only is ahead in the count 50.5% of the time.
Pete Alonso has mashed same-handed offerings with a .373 wOBA and .254 ISO over the last season and change. Switch-hitters Francisco Lindor and Eduardo Escobar also are receiving high marks. For a full stack, outfielders Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil warrant consideration in this matchup.
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Late Slate: Minnesota Twins at RHP Johnny Cueto — 4.5 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is enamored with Minnesota on the main and late slates. Though Johnny Cueto has been a fun story with his resurgence, the bill is about to come due for the 36-year-old journeyman. Seven of his eight home runs allowed have been solo shots and his 81.4% strand rate is simply not sustainable.
Minnesota is loaded with power up and down the lineup. The obvious options are Brandon Buxton (21 home runs), switch-hitting Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler (just $2,700 on FanDuel) and Carlos Correa (career .278/.356/.480 triple slash). That still leaves Luis Arraez, who leads the league with his .344 average, plus Alex Kirilloff, who was crushing the ball in Triple-A prior to his callup. Gary Sanchez (thumb) has missed a couple games and if he is out, Ryan Jeffers is nearly free on DraftKings as a $2,400 punt catcher. Finally, though it will cost the first base slot, Jose Miranda is a cheap power option, depending where he lands in the order.
Early Slate: Cleveland Guardians at RHP Garrett Hill — 4.7 implied runs
Garrett Hill is making his MLB debut for Detroit this afternoon. The 26 year old was selected in the 26th round of the 2018 MLB Draft. Last year was his first action above Single-A and with only 37.2 innings at Triple-A, Hill looks like a sacrificial lamb at best. All we need to know is that he does not even rate out in the top 40 this season on the Detroit prospect list.
Jose Ramirez received an off day on Sunday, so he should be in the lineup today. We can pair him with lefties Andrew Gimenez and Josh Naylor to form a potent trio. If a full stack is desired, look to whichever Guardian draws leadoff duties between Steven Kwan or Myles Straw.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: LHP Sean Manaea vs. Seattle Mariners — 3.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $10,000
Former Oakland ace, Sean Manaea is no stranger to the Mariners, having battled them many times as American League West foes. The Seattle lineup is, by no means, a cupcake matchup, however it is not one to shy away from either. Across his 14 starts for the Padres, the 30-year-old southpaw has allowed more than a trio of runs on just three occasions. The run suppression along with just over a strikeout per inning make Manaea a go-to option tonight.
Secondary Target: RHP Alek Manoah at Oakland Athletics — 2.8 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel $11,000
After a dominating rookie campaign, Alek Manoah had kicked things up a notch in his sophomore season. Currently, he has a top-five ERA (2.09) with a top-10 WHIP (0.96) while also being just outside the top five in the race for the American League Cy Young Award. The Athletics have been a bottom-five team against right-handed hurlers and they have scored the second-fewest runs in the league this season. Though they are still miles ahead of Detroit, the A’s are scoring nearly half a run less per game than the Pirates, who have the third worst offense.
Early Target: RHP Zach Plesac at Detroit Tigers — 4.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,000 | FanDuel $8,600
Speaking of the Tigers, they have a doubleheader today against the Guardians and Zach Plesac is the lucky winner who will be drawing the Game 1 start. Plesac has been solid, though not spectacular this season, but a matchup against Detroit tends to bring out the best in opposing pitchers.
This year, the Tigers have a 70 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which means they are creating runs 30% less efficiently than league average. While Plesac is mediocre when it comes to strikeouts, the Motor City Kitties have a 24.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers, which is the third highest in the league. If you are not a fan of Plesac, then look to Dane Dunning and Dean Kremer squaring off in Camden Yards as afternoon alternatives.
Additional Opportunities
Dean Kremer looks like a solid option in the player props market with his 3.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. The Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 3.9 strikeouts, giving him a 54% probability of surpassing that milestone. While this is a lower success rate than what is typically highlighted here, keep in mind that in his last three starts, Kremer has 5. 4 and 5 strikeouts while averaging just over six innings. The back half of the Texas lineup is loaded with strikeout potential with Nate Lowe, Kole Calhoun, Brad Miller and Steven Duggar all whiffing above league average.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Dean Kremer vs. Texas Rangers (Early)
- RHP Dane Dunning at Baltimore Orioles (Early)
- RHP Kyle Wright vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Main)
- RHP Hunter Greene at New York Mets (Main SP2)
- LHP Julio Urias vs. Colorado Rockies (Late)
One-Off Hitters
- Isaac Paredes at LHP Austin Davis (Early)
- Kyle Tucker vs. RHP Jonathan Heasley (Afternoon)
- Tommy Pham vs. RHP Taijuan Walker (Main)
- Javier Baez vs. LHP Konnor Pilkington (Main)
- Matt Chapman at LHP Cole Irving (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Keep an eye on the Midwest with potential afternoon rain in Detroit and late evening thunderstorms in Chicago.
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