Saturday, June 11, brings wall-to-wall baseball with two featured slates. First, at 4:05 p.m. ET, there is a robust eight-to-10 game slate, with DraftKings (8) and FanDuel (10) diverging somewhat, followed by a five-game slate at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (6/11)
Top Stack: Philadelphia Phillies vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner — 5.3 implied runs
So far this season, veteran Madison Bumgarner has been getting by on guile and luck. Through 59.1 innings he has a 3.64 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. While that is all well and good, it is masking his career-low 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings rate and does not fully reflect the six home runs he has served up over his last four starts. There will be a reckoning at some point this season for the soon-to-be 33-year-old southpaw and a fully healthy Phillies lineup could be the first to exploit all of the many cracks that are starting to show.
It is going to be muggy tonight in Philadelphia with 70-degree temperatures along with 70% humidity. Add in the five-to-eight mph breeze out to right field and things are looking good for home runs. Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm and catcher J.T. Realmuto are the top targets working from the right side of the plate. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber both crush same-handed pitching and it is not like Bumgarner suppresses fellow lefties these days.
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Early Slate: Tampa Bay Rays at RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez — 4.5 implied runs
There are bad pitchers and then there are innings eaters. These days it seems like 30-year-old Chi Chi Gonzalez has finally slipped out of the latter category and into the former. Last Friday, he made his debut for the Twins and was knocked around by the Blue Jays for a pair of home runs with one strikeout in 45 pitches spanning three innings. It will be a surprise if Gonzalez makes it through the fourth inning and the Minnesota relievers are a motley crew who should not be scaring anyone.
This is a nice ballpark boost for Tampa Bay, which is out of pitching-friendly Tropicana Field. They have boppers from the left side of the plate in Ji-man Choi and Brent Phillips along with Randy Arozarena from the right side. For the full stack, we can work in switch-hitting catcher Francisco Mejia and lefty Kevin Kiermaier if he is in his customary slot at the top of the order.
Evening Slate: New York Yankees vs. RHP Matt Swarmer — 5.7 implied runs
All eyes will certainly be on the Yankees with their impressive 5.7 implied run total. This will be the third outing in The Show for 28-year-old Matt Swarmer, who profiles better as an anonymous reliever. In his two starts, he has allowed three home runs across a dozen innings with 11 strikeouts and a trio of walks. Do not be fooled by the 1.50 ERA, as it is missing three unearned runs and also does not reflect Swarmer getting lucky with fly ball outs. Swarmer will turn 29 in September and there is a reason he pitched four years in college with another six in the minors before getting his cup of coffee late last month.
The Awesemo Stack Tool is keen on the Yankees offense tonight and funny enough it is Joey Gallo batting ninth that looks like a perfect differentiation piece. In his last four games at the tail end of the lineup, he has three home runs, five runs scored and six RBI. FanDuel is giving a gift with Gallo at just $2,400 and he also has been assigned a favorable $3,800 salary by DraftKings.
Of course, the true trio to target is Aaron Judge (.287 ISO), Anthony Rizzo (.228 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (.261 ISO) who have all destroyed right-handed hurlers over the last season and change. D.J. LeMahieu and Josh Donaldson can be used to round out full stacks and we can find differentiation with either our pitching or our secondary stack on the five-game evening slate.
Late Slate: New York Mets at RHP Michael Lorenzen — 4.6 implied runs
The new Awesemo Top Batters Tool is liking this matchup for the New York batsmen swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor and Eduardo Escobar are all rated higher in their respective positions than what the average gamer would expect. Michael Lorenzen can be exploited by lefties, as across his last 168 opposite-handed matchups he has ceded a .190 ISO with twin 14.3% walk and strikeout rates. Pete Alonso is above average in all matchups and while lefty Luis Guillorme does not really bring the lumber, he is cheap and can get on base. Plus, the utility infielder should see plenty of “good pitches” as one of the weaker members in the lineup tonight.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: RHP Zack Wheeler vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $10,500
Zack Wheeler has been activated from the paternity list and will be taking the mound against the Diamondbacks tonight. Arizona is actually solid against righties, though Wheeler is one of the best in the game. This season the D-backs have a 24.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers and Wheeler should be able to mitigate their .200 ISO considering over his last 1,000 batters faced his figure is just over half that rate. Wheeler does a fine job limiting baserunners, so even if he leaves a mistake or two over the plate, the damage should be minimal.
Secondary Target: LHP Framber Valdez vs. Miami Marlins — 3.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $9,900
Today temperatures should be close to 100 in Houston which means the roof will likely be closed for this matchup. Framber Valdez has been ridiculous across his last 889 batters faced with a 69.2% ground ball rate and an absurd NEGATIVE 5.1 launch angle. Though he has below-average strikeout stuff (20.7%) and an above-average walk rate (9.9%), he gets so many ground ball outs that it is rare for him to spontaneously combust on the mound. Miami has a league-worst 64 wRC+ against southpaws which means they are creating runs 36% less efficiently than league average. Enjoy!
Early Target: RHP Hunter Greene at St. Louis Cardinals — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,300 | FanDuel $8,600
In each of his last eight outings, rookie Hunter Greene has racked up at least six strikeouts. In fact, even more impressive is that he has reached that milestone in 10-of-11 starts. On the season, he is averaging 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings which would place him behind only Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan if he had enough innings to qualify. Though he did not issue a walk in either of his last two starts, he does have seven games with multiple free passes. Home runs are also a risk with a whopping 2.4 allowed per nine innings, though if he keeps rolling up the gaudy strikeout numbers, that can mitigate the damage from a fantasy perspective.
The Cardinals are not an easy mark, so if the popularity continues to surge with Greene, the venerable Adam Wainwright is a perfect pivot move in the same game. Cincinnati is a bottom-five offense against right-handed hurlers with an above-average 22.4% strikeout rate this season. Wainwright still has one of the best curveballs in the game which is truly impressive considering this is his age-41 season.
Late Target: RHP MacKenzie Gore vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $9,200
The Rockies were shut out last night by Joe Musgrove and three relievers who allowed just five hits and two walks while recording 11 strikeouts. This should not be a surprise, as Colorado is a bottom-five offense against right-handed hurlers while also struggling when away from Coors Field. Tonight, rookie MacKenzie Gore will be making his 10th appearance of the season and his ninth start. Over his 48 innings, he has been stellar with a 1.50 ERA and 1.06 while collecting 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings and allowing a minuscule five extra-base hits.
Additional Opportunities
Kevin Gausman wins the lottery for which pitcher gets to face the Tigers. This makes him a nice option in both the DFS and MLB player props market. Currently, he has a 5.5 over/under on his strikeout prop and the Awesemo MLB Projections have him for 7.2, giving him a 76% probability of achieving the over. Though he has achieved this mark only once in his last four starts, this is the perfect “get right” spot.Â
Other Pitching Options
- Lucas Giolito vs. Texas Rangers (Early)
- Kevin Gausman at Detroit Tigers (Afternoon)
- Frankie Montas at Cleveland Guardians (Afternoon)
- George Kirby vs. Boston Red Sox (Main and Late SP2)
- Carlos Carrasco at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Late)
One-Off Hitters
- Tommy Edman vs. RHP Hunter Greene (Early)
- Blue Jays at RHP Beau Brieske (Afternoon)
- Kyle Tucker vs. LHP Braxton Garrett (Afternoon)
- Mookie Betts at Sammy Long (Main)
- Jesse Winker vs. Michael Wacha (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
The Midwest and East Coast each have a few spots worth monitoring, though nothing looks like it will result in a postponed game. Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota and Washington are the venues where forecasts leading up to first pitch will be important for one last look-see.
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