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MLB DFS Picks Saturday 7/30: Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks Today

Eric MacPherson



Saturday, July 30, brings a full day of baseball culminating in a nine-game main slate beginning at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.

DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/30)

Main Slate: Atlanta Braves vs. RHP Corbin Martin — 5.9 implied runs

Though he has yet to allow a home run in 18.1 innings this season, Corbin Martin has issued an unfathomable 11 walks and survived with 38 fly ball outs. Crooked numbers are coming and if this game is free from precipitation, being overweight on the Atlanta hitters looks to be a savvy strategy. Prior to this season, in 35.1 innings, Martin allowed 13 home runs, so we know that the Regression Monster is lurking and very hungry.

Atlanta has very few holes in their lineup and even rookie Michael Harris II is crushing at the bottom of the order with a .370 wOBA and .265 ISO in 144 lefty-righty matchups. Stalwarts at the top of the lineup include Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Just think how fierce this lineup will be with a healthy Ozzie Albies who should return to action towards the end of next month.

Late Slate: Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP Glenn Otto — 4.7 implied runs

The calendar flipping over to June was like the clock striking midnight in Cinderella when all the magic vanished into the night air. Glenn Otto has been a veritable piñata over his last seven starts allowing a 6.54 ERA with 50 base runners against just 23 strikeouts in 31.2 innings. On the main slate, gamers will be flocking to the Dodgers, which will leave the Halos underrepresented in tournaments. Even without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, the top half of the Anaheim order is still productive. Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward, Jared Walsh and catcher Max Stassi all look like respectable point per dollar options in the Stokastic Top Batters Tool.

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Early Slate: New York Yankees vs. RHP Jon Heasley — 6.0 implied runs

The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool. likes both the Yankees and Blue Jays with each team pushing half a dozen implied runs in their respective matchups. Ultimately going against Jon Heasley and whatever arms remain in the Kansas City bullpen looks like a slightly better opportunity. However, if the crowd is ending up here as well, then by all means pivot to Toronto for tournament leverage.

Ho Hum, Aaron Judge hit two more round trippers last night including an eighth inning grand slam for his league leading 41s home run. Anthony Rizzo recorded his 24th of the season moving into a tie with teammate Giancarlo Stanton as well as Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt for the seventh most longballs in the league.

Matt Carpenter continues to rake and now he is joined by Andrew Benintendi who was acquired from the Royals a couple days ago. Add in two time batting champion D.J. LeMahieu, cleanup hitter Gleyber Torres and switch hitting Aaron Hicks to round out full-stacks.

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Primary Target: LHP Framber Valdez vs. Seattle Mariners — 3.4 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $10,400

Friday we saw Justin Verlander hold Seattle in check in the sixth installment of that particular matchup. Tonight we get southpaw Framber Valdez who through the quirk of MLB scheduling is facing the Mariners for only the second time this season.

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Valdez is an elite groundball artist with a 69.0% rate over his last 1,107 batters faced courtesy of a negative 4.9 degree launch angle. Even with all of the worm burners, he still has a respectable 21.6% strikeout rate which boosts his fantasy upside. Additionally, the Astros are two-to-one favorites to garner a victory tonight and at a minimum, Valdez should be in line for a quality start.

Secondary Target: LHP Ranger Suarez at Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.8 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,600 | FanDuel $8,400

The true aces saw action over the last 48 hours and now we are looking at the middle to back half of pitching rotations. Ranger Suarez looks like a solid selection in a matchup against Pittsburgh. PNC Park is a slight pitching upgrade from Philadelphia’s home digs and the Pirates have struck out a whopping 25.8% of the times this season against southpaws. Though Suarez does not rack up the strikeouts, he does cobble together just enough to offset any runs he allows. If you are not a fan of Suarez, then the next best options are Sonny Gray and Joe Musgrove facing off in San Diego.

Early Target: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.0 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $10,200

Nestor Cortes is an easy recommendation as the top pitcher for the early DFS action. The Yankees are three-to-one favorites this afternoon and Kansas City is likely to run out three or four “create a player” caliber hitters at the bottom of their batting order. Corey Kluber taking on his old team, Eric Lauer against the struggling Red Sox and Ross Stripling against the woeful Tigers are the other choices on the short list.

Additional Opportunities

Nick Pivetta has struggled mightily over his last four starts and we can look to take advantage of this in the player props market. The Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 4.7 strikeouts, giving him a 67% probability of falling under his 5.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. In in six of his last eight starts, he has recorded five or fewer whiffs and the projected Milwaukee lineup has only Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe with a 25% or higher strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last season and change.

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Other Pitching Options

  1. RHP Corey Kluber vs. Cleveland Guardians (Early)
  2. RHP Dean Kremer at Cincinnati Reds (Late Afternoon)
  3. RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Sonny Gray (Main)
  4. RHP Johnny Cueto vs. Oakland Athletics (Main SP2)
  5. LHP Drew Smyly at San Francisco Giants (Late)

Other Hitting Options

  1. Hunter Dozier at LHP Nestor Cortes (Early)
  2. Rowdy Tellez at RHP Nick Pivetta (Afternoon)
  3. Joey Votto vs. RHP Dean Kremer (Late Afternoon)
  4. Kyle Tucker vs. RHP Chris Flexen (Main)
  5. Wilmer Flores vs. LHP Drew Smyly (Late)

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

Saturday is relatively free from weather other than humidity storms in Atlanta. Most other venues are looking at warm to hot weather which bodes well for offensive production.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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