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MLB DFS Picks Sunday 7/10: Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks Today

Eric MacPherson

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Sunday, July 10, wraps up the weekend with a seven-game main slate and a 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Then we have a bonus five-game afternoon slate starting at 4:07 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.


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DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/10)

Main Slate: Braves vs. RHP Paolo Espino — 6.3 implied runs

The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has flagged Atlanta as the best team on Sunday. This should be no surprise since the Braves have been on a roll, winning nine of their last 12 games and looking to complete a sweep against Washington this afternoon. Even with DraftKings assigning Coors Field-like salaries to Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,200), Dansby Swanson ($5,900) and Austin Riley ($5,500), they still rate out well in this matchup.

Paolo Espino has been stretched out to assume a starter’s workload after beginning the season in the bullpen. Over his last four outings, he has logged between 82 and 89 pitches three times. Unfortunately, he has allowed six home runs across these 18.1 innings, including two in each of his last two starts. Espino is far from a prospect, having celebrated his 35th birthday in January, and with Max Scherzer traded last year and Stephen Strasburg injured yet again, Espino is about all the Nats have left in the cupboard. Pretty much anyone up to and including the Atlanta bat boy can be employed against Washington today.

Mid-Afternoon Slate: Guardians at RHP Zack Greinke — 4.2 implied runs

Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes stand out in the Stokastic Top Batters Tool with their delightful matchup against the venerable Zack Greinke. Despite multiple “K’s” in his name, there are no longer “K’s” in his game. This is the final season for the 38-year-old who has spent almost half of his life as a Major League starter. Though it feels like a million years ago, likely because it was before DFS was invented, but Greinke won a Cy Young back in 2000, has been named an All-Star six times, and has six Gold Gloves and a pair of Silver Slugger awards.

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Greinke has allowed multiple home runs in three of his last five starts, and Kansas City also has what is the worst bullpen in the league. Just how bad? Well, the Royals relievers are in the bottom three for xFIP, SIERA and walk rate. Things were so bad last night that the Royals turned to journeyman outfielder Michael A. Taylor to pitch the final two innings of a 13-1 loss. This season Greinke has only an 11.6% strikeout rate, generating a meager 7.3% swinging strikes. While he has an 87.7% first strike rate, that is because he puts everything over the plate while trying to induce weak contact. Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan can be used to round out a full stack.

Late Slate: Rockies at LHP Tyler Gilbert — 4.6 implied runs

This is likely the last stop for Tyler Gilbert, who spent four seasons at Triple-A with a less-than-awe-inspiring strikeout rate of 7.6 per nine innings. In five appearances this season, he has allowed seven home runs in just 19.2 innings, resulting in a 6.86 ERA. Do not confuse him today with Logan Gilbert, and while the Seattle ace does have a brother named Tyler, he does not pitch for the Diamondbacks.

Kris Bryant has hit home runs in each of the last two games, and he has four over his last five appearances. Combining him with C.J. Cron and Brendan Rodgers forms a potent power trio from the right side of the plate. Randall Grichuk is also in play as a one-off or part of a full stack with his light-tower power and favorable salary.


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Top Target: RHP Michael Kopech vs. Tigers — 3.9 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $8,200

After allowing four home runs in his last start against the Twins, Michael Kopech draws the perfect “get right” spot against Detroit. The Tigers are a favorite team to pick on this season, as they are last in the league with a 71 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes park factors and creates a league-wide baseline scoring efficiency of 100. What this means is that Detroit is scoring 29% less efficiently than league average. Even better is that the Motor City Kitties have the third-highest strikeout rate at 24.6% and their projected lineup for Sunday has a two-year-trailing 25.2% strikeout rate against righties. Kopech will be wildly popular, so we will need to find other differentiation spots.


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Wild Card Target: LHP Nick Lodolo vs. Rays — 3.0 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,900 | FanDuel $7,600

Buckle up, Buttercup, as this recommendation is not for the faint of heart. Rookie Nick Lodolo missed all of May and June with a strained back, but returned in style, fanning eight Mets on Tuesday. Between that start and the three he made in April, the 24-year-old southpaw has a wicked 27 whiffs in 19.1 innings. Tampa Bay has been average against lefties this season, which makes Lodolo an intriguing tournament option — even though he is likely to cap out at 85-ish pitches.


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Afternoon Target: LHP Julio Urias vs. Cubs — 3.3 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $9,900

Julio Urias has been a model of consistency this season, logging six innings in 10 of his last 13 starts. The matchup today against Chicago should have him in line for a quality start, which is crucial for the FanDuel scoring system. Urias does a fine job of keeping the bases clear, averaging right around one baserunner per inning. Plus, he has just enough strikeouts while limiting extra base hits that he rarely allows more than a couple of runs. The Cubs do have above-average power against southpaws, though it is accompanied by a 24.3% strikeout rate, which is the fifth highest in the league.

Additional Opportunities

Eric Lauer tends to be overlooked for his strikeout potential. Of course, he will be a popular MLB DFS option with his matchup against Pittsburgh, but we should also consider him in the player prop market with his 5.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. The Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 7.1 strikeouts, giving him a 76% probability of surpassing that milestone. However, that figure is heavily juiced at -139, so it is worth using OddsShopper to look for a better price. The Pirates strike out at a 26.4% clip against southpaws, which is the second-highest rate in the league.

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Other Pitching Options

  1. LHP Eric Lauer vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Main)
  2. RHP Zach Plesac at Kansas City Royals (Mid-Afternoon)
  3. RHP Jake Odorizzi at Oakland Athletics (Afternoon)

One-Off Hitters

  1. Jesus Sanchez at RHP Taijuan Walker (Main)
  2. Ke’Bryan Hayes at LHP Eric Lauer (Main, Mid-Afternoon)
  3. Jose Abreu vs. RHP Drew Hutchison (Main, Mid-Afternoon)
  4. Jake Meyers at LHP Cole Irvin (Afternoon)
  5. Wilmer Flores at LHP MacKenzie Gore (Afternoon)

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

Atlanta is the lone weather worry, with roving showers through the afternoon. Fortunately, it seems the worst-case scenario is only a delay.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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