MLB DFS: Wednesday, July 3rd has one afternoon game (which is the first of a DET at CHW doubleheader), a 6 o’clock game and then a healthy 14 game set at 7pm ET on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel, along with games in Coors Field, Cincinnati, Atlanta and Texas which should make things very interesting in tournaments. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
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Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Wednesday slate.
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Main Slate
Cincinnati Reds vs. RHP Jhoulys Chacin – 5.7 implied runs
The Reds make for a nice contrarian three man stack at home against RHP Jhoulys Chacin who has a proclivity for giving up production to left-handed batsmen. And Chacin has also really slipped this season against right-handed hitters with a .365 wOBA, .222 ISO, 9.2 BB% with a still solid 24.5 K% over 184 batters – when compared to his combined 2017-2018 campaign against same-handed hitters where he allowed 773 batters a miserly .256 wOBA, .104 ISO, 6.7 BB% and 24.1 K%.
Even with the significant decline against righties, my focus is still going to be Jesse Winker, Derek Dietrich and either Scooter Gennett (recently back from a groin tear that cost him the first half of the season) or Joey Votto who is on the wrong side of 35. If a four or five-man stack is your goal, then Yasiel Puig, Nick Senzel and Eugenio Suarez all have pop against fellow righties.
On the DK 7pm six game “turbo” slate, the Boston Red Sox at RHP Sean Reid-Foley – 5.7 implied runs
Evening Slate
Houston Astros at RHP Peter Lambert – 7.2 implied runs
If you’ve been reading this article series for any length of time, you’re fully aware that I generally leave Coors Field out, aside from mentioning that it’s of course always in play. On Wednesday, even on the short four game set taking place in the 8 o’clock hour, it’s going to be hard to pass up a game with a 13.5 implied total and a projected 90-degree temperature at first pitch.
While I don’t have any issues rolling with the Rockies, I do want to point out that in 17 starts this season, LHP Wade Miley has allowed more than three earned runs only twice (four at DET and four at NYY which was also his last start). In 2018 he made 16 starts and did not allow more than three earned runs in any game. Now to be fair, in 2017 he made 32 starts with 18 of them allowing three or less runs, four runs 6x, five runs 3x, six runs 3x and seven runs 2x, so it’s not like he’s infallible, its just been a while.
That leads me to first look at the Astros taking on rookie RHP Peter Lambert, who is making his sixth start this season. Through 24.2 innings this season he has a 6.57 ERA, 2.55 HR/9 and nearly 1.4 base runners per inning with a 6.57 K/9, while both his ZiPS and Steamer projections have him with a mid-5.00 ERA. His 4.61 xFIP does indicate he has had some bad luck, though.
The Astros have a nice mix of contact and power and we can find some differentiation if we look to stack the bottom third of the lineup. Based on their price, position eligibility and projected production, my order of preference would be Alex Bregman, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Robinson Chirinos, Tyler White, Yulieski Gurriel and whoever gets the nod as the third outfielder.
Night Slate
Minnesota Twins at RHP Tanner Anderson – 4.9 implied runs
The weather may keep this run total suppressed, as chilly game time temperatures somewhere in the upper-50s are expected. Please note: the confirmed starter is now RHP Mike Fiers, which is one of the dangers in writing these articles the night before. RHP Tanner Anderson was drafted from Harvard in the 20th round by Pittsburgh after spending three years in the Ivy League as both a starter and reliever. He has logged five seasons in the minors and had a brief cup of coffee last year with the Pirates, making six appearances for 11.1 innings with a 6.35 ERA and 2.029 WHIP. This year he has four appearances for the A’s with 17.2 innings and a 7.13 ERA and 1.472 WHIP. The Twins have a solid lineup and while the key options of Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz and Jorge Polanco are not discounted, we can do a little downward cost averaging with C.J. Cron, Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Schoop.
While the change to RHP Mike Fiers dampens my interest somewhat, this is still a positive matchup for Minnesota.
Since the beginning of last season RHP Mike Fiers has allowed a 1.82 HR/9 across 556 right-handed hitters and a 1.29 HR/9 over 572 lefties. For the main slate, looking to the right-handed power from Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Miguel Sano and Jonathan Schoop as pairs or trios makes sense and then on the evening slate while the key options of Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz and Jorge Polanco are not discounted, we can do a little downward cost averaging with C.J. Cron, Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Schoop.
Late Slate
St Louis Cardinals at RHP Mike Leake – 5.0 implied runs
This write-up was from Tuesday (written on Monday night when the pitchers were not officially announced for the Mariners) so it still holds true with the update that Matt Carpenter has been placed on the injured list. We should see a discounted Tommy Edman at the top of the order and he is a solid bargain across the board as he will have a shot at five at bats.
While the Redbirds are a righty-heavy team, RHP Mike Leake has allowed 1.79 HR/9 to righties as compared to 1.02 HR/9 to opposite-handed hitters since the start of last year. Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong and Tyler O’Neil are intriguing options along with Yadier Molina and we can also consider Matt Carpenter (stomach issue) if he is back in the lineup and on the late-slate Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez and Harrison Bader are in play. Remember that St Louis will have the benefit of the designated hitter with this game being in Seattle, who also has allowed the most runs in the league this season essentially tied with Baltimore. Both teams have given up SIXTY RUNS MORE than the next closest team (aka their relievers are just as bad as their starters).
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Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
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