MLB DFS: Monday, August 19th rings in a new week with a nine game “main” slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB picks, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
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Greetings Gamers! Today is going to be interesting on DraftKings/FantasyDraft as the pitching is aggressively marked up, FanDuel and Yahoo are much more in line with what we typically see. This should make for some interesting lineup construction on the first two sites and on the latter two where the pitching salaries are more tightly grouped by projected production, there will be some nice pivot options depending on where the popularity lands.
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Main Slate
Baltimore Orioles vs RHP Jorge Lopez – 5.5 implied runs
It is rare for the Batters of Birdland to make an appearance here as we are typically targeting against their woeful pitching staff, yet here we are… RHP Jorge Lopez has made 30 appearances this season with 11 starts though it would be a surprise to see him go much more than 55-60 pitches and once he is done the Orioles will get to face the beleaguered Royals bullpen that is bottom five or ten in most categories and has the second lowest strikeout rate at just 21.0%.
Over the last two seasons as a starter/reliever Lopez has faced 326 left-handed hitters allowing a .380 wOBA, .220 ISO, 92 BB% with just an 18.7 K%. Against 295 same-handed batsmen he’s little better with a .332 wOBA, .172 ISO, 8.8 BB% with a 19.9 K%.
Baltimore actually does have some serviceable hitters with Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, Renato Nunez, Steve Wilkerson and Chance Sisco all posting .210+ ISO this season against righties. Sisco did get a foul top to the nether region on Sunday so he may get a day or two off.
Late Slate
Houston Astros vs RHP Edwin Jackson – 6.5 implied runs
Perhaps he just needed a change in scenery because in his two starts for Detroit RHP Edwin Jackson has gone 11.1 innings allowing just three earned runs… of course all of them came via the longball and matchups against Seattle and Kansas City are not exactly daunting by any stretch of the imagination as the Mariners have been no-hit twice this season (by committee) and the Royals have scored the third fewest runs in the league.
In just 39.2 innings this season, Jackson has allowed 15 home runs with only 27 strikeouts culminating in an 8.62 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and a .337 batting average against. This is a game where literally anyone starting for the Astros is a good play on all slates.
Minnesota Twins vs RHP Ivan Nova – 5.7 implied runs
Smoke-n-Mirrors is what comes to mind when I am thinking of ways to describe RHP Ivan Nova’s last five starts as he has gone 4-0 over 37.0 innings allowing only two earned runs (three unearned) with a 0.486 ERA and a 0.702 WHIP… YES his ERA IS LOWER THAN HIS WHIP?! Plus he has two complete games in this magical-mystical month of starts. The only thing that seems to have changed in his pitch mix is an increase in sinkers and sliders and a decrease in his curveball which is probably just noise.
While Nova does not generally implode with great frequency, he can give up crooked numbers and if this were even an average offense, I would probably side with him. However, this iteration of the Twins has been a top five offense all season and other than missing Nelson Cruz they are fully healthy.
Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Jason Castro all have .220+ ISOs against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons and Jorge Polanco and Jake Cave are not far behind at .188 and .184 respectively. This is more of a late-slate recommendation than going against Nova on the full-slate, particularly if they pick up a lot of popularity as there is a good chance Nova keeps them in check… I mean dang, I did not see the complete game from LHP Yusei Kikuchi coming at all on Sunday as he has been dreadful this season #Baseball #AnythingCanHappen
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
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In addition to our MLB Projections, Awesemo’s ownership projections come out every day before lineup lock.We also release a daily Top Stack projection, which takes a look at how likely each MLB stack is to be the highest scoring unit on the slate, relative to our projected ownership and value. Want a more in-depth look? Check out Data Central page, which tallies up every single bit of data we’ve collected over the course of the day, including chance of postponement.
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