Monday, Sept. 12, has a festive seven-game slate with an early lock time of 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/12)
Main Slate Stack: Astros at LHP Eduardo Rodriguez — 4.3 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool along with the rest of the DFS world thinks the Astros are well positioned for success against veteran Eduardo Rodriguez tonight. The 29-year-old southpaw has never capitalized on the promise he showed in his 2015 rookie campaign and injuries have also taken a toll. In his last two starts, Rodriguez has allowed five home runs in 11 innings of work.
We all know the script by now with the usual suspects in play for the Astros. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, rookie Jeremy Pena and former Oriole Trey Mancini will be holding the platoon advantage and each has home run upside. In a fun twist, Rodriguez has long had issues against fellow lefties and has allowed a .219 ISO in his last 208 same-handed matchups. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker each have a .240 ISO over their last 400 lefty-lefty matchups and look quite intriguing in the home run props.
Late Slate Stack: Dodgers at RHP Ryne Nelson — 5.5 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool recognizes Ryne Nelson’s spectacular debut last Monday when he blanked the Padres in San Diego over seven innings with seven strikeouts. However, he was somewhat lucky, surviving a dozen fly ball outs and tonight he is going against one of the deepest offenses in the league. Nelson is the sixth-ranked prospect in the Arizona system, though he raced through the minors starting out at Single-A last year and capping things off with 136 innings in Triple-A this season. Projection systems have him rated out as a middle-of-the-rotation starter with slightly below-average strikeouts and his control potentially being an issue when the inevitable home runs occur.
Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner and Mookie Betts of course are the obvious options. However, the Top Batters Tool really likes the trio of lefties at the bottom of the order in Max Muncy, Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger. While these players have been in slumps for what feels like an eternity, this is a perfect get-right spot that the field is likely to overlook with all eyes being focused on Monday Night Football.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Spencer Strider at Giants — 3.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $10,400
Spencer Strider is continuing his stellar rookie campaign and he is in another favorable matchup tonight against San Francisco. In his last eight starts, the 23-year-old strikeout artist has allowed just 11 runs, issued 11 walks and rung up 69 hitters on strikes across 46.1 frames. Amazingly his 1.48 FIP indicates that he has had a little bad luck with a 2.14 ERA. Strider is averaging 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings and that is well ahead of the 12 from second-place ace Shohei Ohtani.
Secondary Target: LHP Framber Valdez at Tigers — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,700 | FanDuel $11,000
Chris Bassitt would land in this slot if there were clear skies in New York tonight. However, it is hard to tell from the forecast when the rain will arrive in force. That means Framber Valdez is the next man up and while he is sitting in the five-figure salary range for a fifth straight start, he has earned every penny. The 28-year-old ground ball specialist has allowed more than three runs only once this year. Over the last two seasons, he has a 68.9% ground ball rate, courtesy of his ridiculous negative 4.5-degree launch angle. Even better is that he is still league average with his strikeouts, giving him a very fantasy-friendly skillset. He ranks 10th with a 2.64 ERA and his 24 quality starts are three more than any other pitcher in the league. Tonight he gets a matchup against the anemic Tigers, which bodes well for his fantasy supporters. Enjoy!
Additional Opportunities
Mike Minor is in the final phase of his career and while it is hard to consider him in DFS lineups, we can still target the 4.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. The Stokastic projections are forecasting 5.2 strikeouts and a 60% win probability. Pittsburgh has been dreadful against southpaws this season and their projected lineup has a nearly 30% strikeout rate over the last two years. In his two prior meetings with the Pirates, the 34-year-old hurler has one and eight strikeouts in a dozen innings. If he closes out the fifth tonight, he should be able to accrue the five strikeouts needed to win this prop.
If this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Chris Bassitt vs. Chicago Cubs (Main, weather concern)
- RHP Jose Berrios vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Main SP2)
- LHP Tyler Anderson at Arizona Diamondbacks (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Adolis Garcia at LHP Braxton Garrett (Main)
- Wander Franco at RHP Jose Berrios (Main)
- Jake Fraley vs. RHP Bryse Wilson (Main)
- Ketel Marte vs. LHP Tyler Anderson (Late)
- Matt Olson at RHP Alex Cobb (Late)
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Keep tabs on the forecast for New York. If the game looks to have a window to get in six or seven innings, Bassitt is an outstanding pitching option.
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