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MLB DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Pitchers: Attack the Pirates Tonight With Mets Bats & Chris Bassitt (Sept 17)

Eric MacPherson



MLB DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Pitchers: Attack the Pirates Tonight with the Mets bats and Bassitt as SP1 (Sept 17)

Saturday, Sept. 17, brings a raucous nine-game main slate with a 7:10 p.m. ET lock. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.

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DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/17)

Main Slate Stack Mets vs. RHP Bryse Wilson — 5.0 implied runs

The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has identified New York as one of the four best stacks today in the Stack Score, Top Stack % (i.e. the likelihood of being the highest scoring stack of the day) and there are enough other teams on the main slate, that most options will juuuuuuust be flirting with double-digit popularity.

Since the beginning of August, Bryse Wilson has made seven starts and one relief appearance. In these 38.1 innings, he has a 5.63 ERA and only 22 strikeouts while allowing 10 home runs. In his last 363 opposite-handed matchups, he has allowed a .370 wOBA and a .238 ISO. Fellow righties are still getting it done as well with a .339 wOBA and a .184 ISO.

Pete Alonso and Dan Vogelbach are a dream righty-lefty, one-two punch in the heart of the order, though they can only be paired together on FanDuel. The trio at the top of the order will all have the platoon-advantage and Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and switch-hitting Francisco Lindor all field their positions well and are at a near-zero pinch-hit risk if a southpaw enters the fray. Eduardo Escobar offers differentiation from the bottom of the order and he has above-average pop when swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate.

Late Stack: Dodgers at RHP Sean Hjelle — 4.6 implied runs

The main risk with the Dodgers these days is that they have such a commanding lead in the standings, so it behooves them to not take extra risks with their key players. Yesterday, it was pointed out in this article that Dustin May was going to be at risk of having his workload limited, which came to fruition much to the chagrin of his fantasy supporters. Manager Dave Roberts pulled him after the fifth inning last night, even though he had not allowed a single hit through 69 pitches. Something similar is likely in store tonight for Julio Urias and again tomorrow with Andrew Heaney.

Los Angeles has a five-game lead over Houston for the best record in baseball with each team having around 17-to-20 games left on the schedule. The Dodgers have an even bigger 9.5-game lead over the Mets for the best record in the National League and have already clinched the National League West. This means they do not have a lot to play for over the next three weeks until the postseason arrives.

What does that mean for their offense? Well, their top six or seven players are all at risk for late inning replacements or even being swapped out earlier if the games are out of hand. That means they are risky options. However, on the flipside, any of the understudies that work their way into the lineup are likely to get in a full game.

Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger are the least likely players to lose at bats, though they are both near the bottom of the order. Chris Taylor is relatively safe as he can play so many positions, it facilitates pulling out the regulars late in the game. Off days for him will likely come in the form of not being in the starting lineup.

All this being said, there has been only one pitch-hit occurrence in the last six games. But just know that skipper “Restin’ Dave Roberts” has earned his nickname for a reason. Reserves Hanser Alberto and catcher Austin Barnes are not likely to be pulled from games where they draw a start. It is just a two-game slate tonight, so this space is better used to provide this insight for what is likely to start happening soon with little-to-no warning.

Early Stack: Cardinals vs. LHP Mike Minor — 5.7 implied runs

This is a worst-possible-scenario matchup for veteran Mike Minor. St. Louis is having a historic season against southpaws, with their league-leading 146 wRC+ being a full 20 points better than the next best team. Weighted Runs Created Plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes various factors such as ballpark, defense, etc. and creates a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This means that the Cardinals are creating runs 46% more effiently than league average, 20% more than the next closest teams and more than double the 70 wRC+ posted by the Marlins.

Since the All-Star Break, Minor has made 10 starts, logging 53 innings. Somehow the Reds have won three of these games, but the 5.43 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 1.9 home runs per nine innings are all favoring St. Louis. This is the first game of a doubleheader, so we could see a few lineup wrinkles. The dynamic duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are the first two players that should be in our lineup, but it is also likely that Albert Pujols plays in this first game which makes him a fine pivot away from Goldy on DraftKings where we can only roster one first basemen. Paul DeJong is another discount dandy who likely will draw a start with a lefty on the hill and he has been outstanding since being recalled from the minors.

Tyler O’Neill should be in the top half of the order to get him an extra at bat with the platoon advantage. Veteran Yadier Molina did not play last night, so he should be behind the dish in this afternoon affair.

Best MLB DFS Pitchers

Primary Target: RHP Jose Urquidy vs. Athletics  — 5.1 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,700 | FanDuel $8,800

Last Saturday was a rough one for Jose Urquidy who had his worst outing of the season against the Angels. It was just one of those days as he was very hittable allowing 10 base knocks and one home run. On the bright side, he issued only one free pass and blanked the Halos in Anaheim for seven innings in his preceding start.

Since the calendar turned over to June, the 27-year-old late bloomer has rolled up 17 starts with a 3.31 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, all while allowing three or fewer runs in 14 of his appearances. Oakland has scored three or fewer runs in nine of their last 15 games. On the season, the Athletics have been outscored by every team in the league, except the Tigers. The Astros are nearly 3-to-1 favorites at home, with a quality start probability that keeps Urquidy in the mix on FanDuel.

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Secondary Target: LHP Chris Bassitt vs. Pirates  — 2.6 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $9,700

While Chris Bassitt was abysmal against the Cubs on Monday, we should go right back to the well once again in this cherry matchup against the Pirates. In his last nine games, Bassitt has allowed just two home runs; both unfortunately happened at the hands of Chicago. He also had two walks, which is uncharacteristic for him as a pitcher with excellent control.

The former Oakland hurler has been a top-25 pitcher this season and he has done an excellent job maintaining most of the strikeout rate he showed coming off a career high 9.1 per nine innings rate last year. The projected Pirate lineup today has a strikeout rate pushing 30% against right-handed pitchers since the start of last year. Enjoy!

Early Slate Target: LHP  Trevor Rogers at Nationals  — 3.8 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,900 | FanDuel $7,800

In his three starts since recovering from lower back spasms, Trevor Rogers has recorded an impressive 22 strikeouts, across 18.1 innings while facing the Rays, Phillies and Rangers. In this stretch he has allowed three walks and two home runs on his way to a 2.95 ERA and 2.62 WHIP. Washington has lost seven of the last nine games, with most contests being against mediocre pitchers.

The projected lineup for the Nationals this afternoon has a 24.3% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last two seasons. Rogers tends to be off the radar for most gamers, so it needs to be highlighted that he has a 25.6% strikeout rate across his last 1,000 matchups against batters of either-handedness.

Additional Opportunities

If you are looking for a betting rush like no other then putting a few bones on Bryse Wilson and his 2.5 over/under strikeout prop. is the way to go. While he should NEVER be in our DFS lineup and the Mets are today’s recommended stack, the Stokastic projections are forecasting 2.9 strikeouts and a 55% win probability. While that is not a lot, this wager is currently at +120 and has a 22% xROI. Another way to approach this opportunity is in a Same Game Parlay and still taking some of the Mets hitters, to increase the payout by adding additional legs.

If this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.

Other Pitching Options

  1. RHP Shane Bieber vs. Minnesota Twins (Early)
  2. LHP Rich Hill vs. Kansas City Royals (Afternoon)
  3. RHP Aaron Nola at Atlanta Braves (Main)
  4. LHP Jose Quintana vs. Cincinnati Reds (Main Sp2)
  5. RHP Shohei Ohtani vs. Seattle Mariners (Late)

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Other Hitting Options

  1. Jose Ramirez vs. RHP Louie Varland (Early)
  2. Rafael Devers vs. RHP Brady Singer (Afternoon)
  3. Rowdy Tellez vs. RHP Jameson Taillon (Main)
  4. Alex Bregman vs. LHP Cole Irvin (Main)
  5. Wilmer Flores vs. LHP Julio Urias (Late)

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

Saturday looks like there will be plenty of gorgeous fall weather and should be a pleasant evening for some baseball.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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