MLB DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Pitchers: Target the Diamondbacks Tonight with the Padres and Snell as SP1 (Sept 16)

Friday, Sept. 16, kicks off the weekend with a MONSTER 14-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.


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DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/16)

Main Slate Stack: Marlins at RHP Josiah Gray — 4.0 implied runs

The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has been eagerly awaiting the next start for Josiah Gray. Washington has been looking to limit his innings down the stretch, as well as likely having him lap the field on the home runs allowed leaderboard. While it would be more fun to have a team other than Miami be the opponent, the Marlins are likely to be completely off the radar in tournaments tonight. Gray has made only two starts since August 20, and he lasted just 8.1 innings while allowing 10 runs against just five strikeouts in road games against the Cardinals and Mets. Each team had a pair of round-trippers against Gray, giving him 36 on the season.

Miami has the highest Stack Score, narrowly edging out Boston and Seattle, while also having the best Value Score by a commanding margin. Garrett Cooper and Brian Anderson are the top pairing and if we are looking for a trio, then catcher Nick Fortes or outfielder JJ Bleday are the next men up with middle infielder Charles Leblanc worthy of an honorable mention. Keep in mind that we are mostly home run hunting here, so three- and four-man stacks are the way to go. These Marlins have a variety of positional eligibility, which makes this an easy team to use as a complimentary stack while getting the top pitchers and a premiere full stack of our choice.

Evening Stack: Astros vs. RHP Adrian Martinez — 5.1 implied runs

It is likely that various Houston regulars will receive a day off in this series. Thursday it was Jose Altuve, so tonight’s likely candidates would be Kyle Tucker, Trey Mancini and Alex Bregman. This strategy as the season winds down is a solid one and it will also land some of the understudies in nice situations. Last night it was Aledmys Diaz batting second and he rewarded his backers with a 7th-inning home run. He and Chas McCormick are the two most likely players to see a boost in their roles.

Adrian Martinez was acquired by Oakland in the Sean Manaea deal and he has bounced between the parent club and the minors all season. Pitching in the Pacific Coast League for the Las Vegas Aviators, he has been saddled with a 5.72 ERA, which is even worse than his 5.59 ERA across eight outings in The Show. The usual Astros are all in play on both the main and evening slates, plus they could provide a nice discount dandy or two for those gamers savvy enough to pay attention to the nuances of the starting lineup.

Late Stack: Padres at LHP Madison Bumgarner — 4.6 implied runs

Things have been pretty bleak for veteran Madison Bumgarner who has allowed 30 runs in his last 31.2 innings. In these six starts, he has a 4.91 FIP which indicates he has been unlucky when compared to his 8.24 ERA, but that is just perfuming the proverbial pig. In four meetings this season against San Diego, the former ace has actually not allowed a home run, however, the 11 walks in 17 innings have allowed the Padres to still roll up 13 runs on a mere three extra-base hits.

Brandon Drury (concussion) returned last night after missing two weeks and he was two-for-three with a double. In addition to Drury, the trio to be targeting is Manny Machado, Juan Soto and switch-hitting Josh Bell. If needed, differentiation can be found from the bottom of the order with Wil Myers or Jurickson Profar.

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Primary Target: LHP Robbie Ray at Angels — 3.9 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $10,600

This should be an interesting slate for pitchers with so many seeing good matchups. There are also a few potential pitfalls among two of the more popular options. Justin Verlander (calf) is on track to come off the injured list in a tremendous matchup against the hapless Athletics. However, there is no reason for Houston to push their 39-year-old ace.

The Astros have a 6.5-game lead over the Yankees in the American League and are five games behind the Dodgers for the best record in baseball, with the Mets 4.5 games behind them. With the American League West all but clinched, it would be a surprise to see Verlander go more than five or six innings or more than 90ish pitches in his remaining starts down the stretch.

Similarly, the Dodgers essentially have the best record in baseball locked up, so there is no reason for them to overextend their starters either and we know that Dave Roberts doesn’t need any sort of excuse to pull his pitchers early. That makes Dustin May a bit of a risk tonight, and the same goes for Julio Urias and fellow lefty Andrew Heaney this weekend.

Seattle, however, is in the midst of the Wild Card race and while the top three teams are nearly five games up on Baltimore, the Mariners have not made the postseason since 2001 and are tantalizingly close to ending that ignominious streak. Robbie Ray is always a DFS adventure, but he is the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner and he has fanned 10 Angels in each of his two tilts against Anaheim. While that is no guarantee for success tonight, he does have a better path for 25+ fantasy points on DraftKings than Verlander or May.


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Secondary Target: LHP Blake Snell at Diamondbacks — 3.7 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $10,100

There may be no better way to experience the highs and lows of DFS than when rostering Blake Snell. Heck, pairing him with Ray tonight could bring the ultimate euphoria or have supporters of that strategy slamming their computer closed 20 minutes after the West Coast games lock. Snell was gobsmacked by the Dodgers in his last start, but he gets a reprieve from that judgment. However, the three home runs allowed to the Guardians four starts ago are a little more suspect. Fortunately, in three of his last six games, he has been sublime, including limiting the Diamondbacks to one run over six innings 10 days ago, with 10 strikeouts.

On the season, Snell is averaging 12.1 strikeouts, which would have him in the top three if he had enough innings to qualify for the leaderboard. This year, Arizona has been a bottom-five squad against lefties from a scoring efficiency perspective and tonight’s projected lineup has a 23.7% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last two seasons. In that same timeframe, Snell has a ridiculous 31.6% strikeout rate across 974 batters.

Additional Opportunities

Mitch Keller is someone to target tonight with the 4.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. The Stokastic projections are forecasting 4.0 strikeouts and a 64% win probability. In five of his last eight starts, he has had three or fewer strikeouts. While there is a heavy -140 on the under for this bet, if we include it in a same game or other type of parlay, the payout can be increased with additional legs.

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Other Pitching Options

  1. RHP Lucas Giolito at Detroit Tigers (Main)
  2. RHP Triston McKenzie vs. Minnesota Twins (Main)
  3. RHP Josiah Gray vs. Miami Marlins (Main SP2)
  4. RHP Justin Verlander vs. Oakland Athletics (Evening)
  5. RHP Jack Flaherty vs. Cincinnati Reds (Evening)

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Other Hitting Options

  1. Teoscar Hernandez vs. RHP Jordan Lyles (Main)
  2. Pete Alonso vs. RHP Mitch Keller (Main)
  3. Rafael Devers vs. RHP Jonathan Heasley (Main)
  4. Aaron Judge at RHP Adrian Houser (Evening)
  5. Jesse Winker at RHP Michael Lorenzen (Late)

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

Once again, we have a nice weather day for Friday with no precipitation risks for tonight’s MEGA slate.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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