The Friday slate of MLB DFS action is a gigantic 14-game affair that should be a blast to play. With several top-end aces going for their teams, including two of the very best in a head-to-head matchup in the nightcap, there is plenty to love about the pitching slate. There are also some high-quality bats in good spots and plenty of stacking opportunities up and down the board. Fitting things together will be an interesting exercise when paying up for pitching, particularly where two arms are required, which will make finding the best value stacks and MLB DFS picks of the night a critical part of building a successful lineup tonight on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Awesemo team will be here for all the action with daily fantasy baseball advice on the morning Strategy Show – which you can find on YouTube or your favorite podcast network – and Live Before Lock this afternoon starting at 4:30pm ET and taking you through the main slate. We will be constantly updating all the tools and content. Speaking of tools, if you aren’t visiting the Top Stacks Tool regularly, you’re just making your MLB DFS picks incorrectly. The Top Starters Tool is every bit as important in deciding who takes the hill for your daily fantasy baseball lineup.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home Run Ratings
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Check out all of the home run ratings and more free baseball picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Asdrubal Cabrera — 3.58
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 10.09
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 11.14
Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 4.55
Chicago White Sox: Tim Anderson — 5.74
Cincinnati Reds: Nicholas Castellanos — 11.83
Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 10.77
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon — 7.48
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 9.69
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 11.07
Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 13.60
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 5.80
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 4.25
Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 7.17
Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 8.31
New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 11.12
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 7.26
Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 13.43
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 5.56
Pittsburgh Pirates: Colin Moran — 7.77
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 11.15
San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 4.48
Seattle Mariners: Evan White — 6.77
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 4.45
Tampa Bay Rays: Manuel Margot — 14.62
Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 16.43
Toronto Blue Jays: Rowdy Tellez — 11.65
Washington Nationals: Kyle Schwarber — 8.30
Power Index (Main Slate)
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
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MLB DFS Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
MLB DFS gets very interesting on big slates like this when there are several high-end arms available, which is certainly the case tonight. Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw will be dueling again in Los Angeles, Jacob deGrom will be taking on a depleted Nationals lineup in probably the best overall spot of the day, Tyler Glasnow has a tougher road to travel but a similar upside and Sonny Gray presents a puzzle given his potential innings limit. There are also several strong value plays and SP2 options on the mound, from the White Sox Dylan Cease – who is yet to harness his control and is difficult to recommend even in a fantastic matchup for strikeouts – to Zack Greinke, Mike Minor, Jordan Montgomery and Sandy Alcantara. There is simply an abundance of quality arms at the top and in the middle today and little reason to go to total punt plays at pitcher.
One name from higher up the salary board is Steven Matz. He has made significant strides so far this season after struggling to meet his long-anticipated ceiling over several seasons with the Mets. Matz has thrown 18 innings this season across three starts, putting up a 26.5% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate with a 3.59 xFIP and a sparkling 0.82 WHIP. In his 30 innings last season he had a 1.70 WHIP, so he is well ahead of his pace in terms of allowing base runners. Over 160 innings for the Mets in 2019, Matz had a 22.1% strikeout rate and a 4.60 xFIP with a 1.34 WHIP. The fear of getting that version of Matz instead of the stronger starter from early this season is the concern given the $9,500 outlay on FanDuel and $8,900 spend on DraftKings. There are so many good pitching options on the slate that it is difficult to fully trust the emergent Matz. He projects as a middling option among starters in my personal pitching projections and the same appears true on Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool. However, according to daily fantasy baseball ownership projections, Matz isn’t breaking the 3% threshold. The Rays lineup is also showing strong power indicators in my home run model, as can be seen above. The team has just a .161 ISO against left-handed pitching to start the season and is striking out at an alarming 28.8% in the split, so there is reason to believe in upside potential for Matz. However, the Rays have also created runs at a 15% above-average pace and have hit seven home runs against lefties already this year, tying them for ninth in baseball. Matz has had issues with home runs through his career, yielding a 1.46 HR/9 across his full sample. In 2019, Matz allowed 27 home runs in just 160.1 innings. There is a bit of a danger sign at the high prices here.
Cease is a major work in progress. If he ever finds his command and control he will be a lights out strikeout artist with major upside. Cease has a dominant four-seam fastball that averages 96.2 mph and has an impressive 2,532 spin rate. That sets up his plus-plus slider, his plus curve and his changeup. The slider has been Cease’s go-to out pitch for swings and misses this season, getting a 50% whiff rate on the 31.5% volume he has thrown. Cease has struck out eight of the 15 hitters he has gotten so far this year with the slider and another five on fastballs. His issue, as has been throughout his short tenure, is the walks. Cease is in the 58th percentile of whiff rate, 77th percentile chase rate but juts the 18th percentile in walk rate, which shows he has been wild more than ineffective. Throwing the same pitch mix, Cease can be electric on the right day and the Rangers represent the best possible option for him to have that day today. Cease is an extremely risky play, but there is major upside in his talent if he can harness it for an evening. The Rangers active roster has a league-worst 29.5% strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitching. Over a larger sample dating to the start of the 2019 season, the Rangers active roster is still league-worst at 26.5%. The upside and downside are both significant, with many other options available this is a play for a bold few shares of one’s portfolio of entries.
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Atlanta Braves — 1-5 – Acuna – Freeman – Ozuna – Albies – Swanson
Less Expensive Alternate: 9-1-2-4-5 – Jackson – Acuna – Freeman – Albies – Swanson
The Braves stand out in the model as well as on the Top Stacks Tool in their matchup against Diamondbacks right-hander Luke Weaver. He is not lacking in talent, but he has struggled with consistency. In 2019, Weaver put up a 3.07 xFIP with a 1.07 WHIP and a solid 26.5% strikeout rate over his limited 64-inning sample. In 2020, he threw 52 innings, striking out 23.3% of hitters but putting up a bumpy 5.07 xFIP and a 1.56 WHIP. The truth could be somewhere in the middle, but what adds to the appeal is Weaver’s struggles with power. He gave up 10 home runs in his 52 innings in 2020 and 19 in a 136.1 inning sample in 2018. His standout 2019 season was an outlier, Weaver yielded just six home runs in that 64.1 inning sample. This year Weaver has thrown 16.2 innings, giving up four home runs and ranking in the 19th percentile in hard hit rate allowed. Weaver has a 34th percentile barrels allowed rate and stands in the 16th percentile in expected slugging percentage allowed (xSLG). This is a targetable pitcher and the Braves are more than capable against right-handed arms. If they get Ronald Acuna Jr. back, so much the better.
Acuna is quite simply one of the best players in baseball. If given a full season of health, his upside is astronomical, given his rare mix of power and speed. He has been nursing an injury and has missed the last few games, but he is expected back in his usual spot atop the Braves lineup tonight. In his 202 plate appearances last season, Acuna had a .250/.406/.581 triple-slash with 14 home runs and eight stolen bases. In a full season the year before he had a truly special 41 home runs and 37 stolen bases across 715 plate appearances, which is why it is reasonable to say he could put up a 50-50 season before he’s through. There is upside even at the hefty $6,300 price tag on DraftKings, though spending an SP2 salary on an outfielder makes lineup construction tricky.
Freddie Freeman costs nearly as much on the DraftKings slate, coming in at a $6,200, while he is at just $3,900 on the FanDuel slate. Freeman is an excellent left-handed bat, though he is off to just a .222/.388/.492 start to the season. Despite that, Freeman has already hit five home runs and has a .270 ISO, flashing plenty of early power. For his career, Freeman is a .307/.398/.543 hitter with a .236 ISO against right-handed pitching and he creates runs a full 50% better than average. This is a great spot for him.
Marcell Ozuna‘s early struggles have been widely discussed. He is off to just a .206/.316/.250 start, and unlike with Freeman, the power has been out. Ozuna has hit just one home run so far this year and his ISO sits at a miserable .044 across 79 plate appearances so far. Of course, this is the same player that hit 18 home runs and put up a .298 ISO in 267 opportunities last season, so there is a give and take to the small sample numbers. Ozuna is an excellent hitter and has a strong power bat. He hits right-handed pitching well, though he does get more power against lefties. For his career, Ozuna has a .179 ISO against same-handed pitching, but he still creates runs at a pace 12% better than the average, giving enough reason to include him in stacks.
Second baseman Ozzie Albies is an All-Star caliber option who hits from both sides of the plate and is going significantly under-owned on the DraftKings slate given his $5,200 price tag. On FanDuel he is at just $2,900 and should be in most Braves stacks. He had a strong 2019 campaign before coming back to Earth last season. In his 702 plate appearances that year, Albies hit 24 home runs and stole 15 bases while putting up a .295/.352/.500 slash — excellent for a second baseman. Albies had just a .271/.306/.466 slash in his 124 plate appearances in the weird 2020 season, and he has struggled to get anything going this year at just .155/.261/.328. There is plenty of reason to roster the upside from the middle of this lineup, particularly if the public is not.
Dansby Swanson was highly projectable for the growth that he has demonstrated at the plate over the past two seasons. Swanson delivered a 17 home run, 10 stolen base year for the Braves in 2019, adding another 10 home runs and five steals in just 264 plate appearances last season. He makes a significant amount of hard contact and is excellent at limiting the soft contact he makes, driving the ball with authority at all times. In a running theme, Swanson is also off to a bad start to his 2021. He has only a .179/.267/.284 slash in his 75 plate appearances, putting up a .104 ISO and striking out an alarming 32.0% of the time. The sample is still absurdly small, however, so there is no reason to panic. Swanson can be included in Braves stacks.
Guillermo Heredia moves up in the Braves batting order with catcher Travis d’Arnaud getting a night off. Heredia is a career .240/.319/.350 hitter with 21 home runs in his 1,160 plate appearances. He has stolen just seven bases across that tenure, with his career-high in plate appearances coming with the Mariners in 2017 at 426. This is a skippable option, but mixing him in for variance sake makes sense if rolling a large share of Braves stacks.
Slugger Austin Riley is still finding his way at the hot corner for the Braves. Riley has significant power upside but is a heavy strikeout “three true outcomes” play most of the time in his major league career. The prospect profile was always for a better hit tool than he has offered at the major league level, so there is reason to believe Riley will grow into his role, but that is unlikely to happen before tonight’s game. Rostering Riley is a home run hunting play. He rates out well in my home run model despite getting more of his power against lefties, and he has all the upside and savings you could ask at just $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel.
Catcher Alex Jackson gets the nod behind the plate tonight. He will be hitting eighth in the now confirmed lineup. He rookie has a significant power profile and could be a sneaky late-lineup option, particularly where catchers are required. Jackson hit 28 home runs in just 345 plate appearances at AAA in 2019 and has 70-grade raw power in traditional scouting. Jackson is yet to connect with one at the major league level, but given the profile of the opposing starter, this could be the spot. He has struck out a ridiculous 38.2% of the time in his 34 plate appearances at this level. This is likely a zero or a valuable MLB DFS score tonight.
HR Call: Randy Arozarena — Tampa Bay Rays
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