The Friday MLB DFS slate has some major weather question marks that are slate changers depending on how the news breaks later in the day. With three of the four top-ranked starters on both sites in games currently in jeopardy, MLB DFS gamers will have some major decisions to make in the absence of news. Removing those starters from the board changes the shape of the slate dramatically, bats will become the primary focus as the top end of available arms gets very short very quickly in that circumstance. The slates are further differentiated between DraftKings and FanDuel by the absence of Shohei Ohtani as a pitcher on the blue site, shortening the pitching list even more dramatically on the one-pitcher site. As interesting slates go, this is one that will arrive via unpredictability and chaos, rather than sharp pricing and good matchups.
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MLB DFS picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel will come together in interesting ways today, and it should be a good time for building to unique constructions.
Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home-run candidates for each team.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: David Peralta — 6.00
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 7.09
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 3.89
Boston Red Sox: Hunter Renfroe — 13.55
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 10.50
Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 7.37
Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario — 6.33
Houston Astros: Alex Bregman — 4.24
Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 7.09
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 8.21
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 9.01
Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 6.57
Milwaukee Brewers: Avisail Garcia — 6.85
Minnesota Twins: Miguel Sano — 8.51
New York Mets: Dominic Smith — 2.97
New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 17.77
Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 5.84
San Diego Padres: Tommy Pham — 3.54
San Francisco Giants: Jason Vosler — 6.82
Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger — 13.19
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 14.58
Texas Rangers: Nick Solak — 3.58
Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez — 12.94
Washington Nationals: Kyle Schwarber — 9.91
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Given the uncertainty in several weather spots, it is difficult to nail down the pitching board for tonight’s slate. Typically, Gerrit Cole would be a no-brainer lock at the top of the board, but his scheduled cakewalk against the Tigers has a significant chance of weather impacting it, if not getting fully postponed. Assuming the transit schedule cooperates today, Ohtani is very much in play on the DraftKings slate, but he exists only as a $4,000 outfielder on FanDuel. Ian Anderson and Walker Buehler join the list near the top of the board, with Buehler landing as the safest spot and Anderson seriously jeopardized by weather. Further down the board there are options like Hyun Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner and Sean Manaea all slightly outpacing the also-rans.
The Tigers currently strike out 27.6% of the time against right-handed pitching. Yankees superstar righty Gerrit Cole has struck out 38.5% of hitters this season. This would typically lead to massive upside and an absolute hammerlock of a spot. Cole has been spectacular over his 64.2 innings in 10 starts, posting a 3.3% walk rate and a 0.80 WHIP with his 2.21 xFIP. The only threat to Cole’s chances at posting a dominant start is the weather. Of all the games with threats of rain, the Detroit ballpark appears to have the safest chance of playing clean, weather services are tracking the light rain to end somewhere around game time, after which conditions are expected to remain cold and overcast, but dry, which would be further advantage to pitching. Barring any breaking bad weather news, MLB DFS gamers can fire away with Cole shares on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Ohtani not existing as a starter on the FanDuel slate is a major wrinkle on that site. He has a 34.9% strikeout rate and a 17.1% walk rate this year, and was written up in this space yesterday, most of the analysis should carry over. Ohtani missed last night’s start because of bad traffic in the Bay Area, though the BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit) Twitter handle would disagree.
Anderson will be in Queens to take on the Mets hilarious interpretation of a Major League baseball team. The weather is a major threat in this one, with the Mets calling out the potential for a postponement as early as last night. If by some miracle the game plays from start to finish, Anderson would be in a great spot. He has struck out 25.2% of hitters this season, posting a 3.26 xFIP with a 1.20 WHIP over his 51.0 innings this season, inducing 11.8% swinging strikes. Anderson is facing an extremely watered-down Mets lineup that is missing most of its key hitters for a varied list of injuries. The active Mets roster has just a .118 ISO and has created runs 15% worse than average against righties this season, while hitting just 25 home runs in the split all year. Anderson could put up a very strong start on FanDuel and DraftKings tonight, but it is more likely to come tomorrow, given the weather threat.
Buehler will likely become extremely popular if all of the other pitching options scratch tonight. He is already drawing attention, but the high price tag is keeping some of the public demand at bay at the moment. He is in form, striking out 26.6% of hitters over the first 58.1 innings of his season, in nine starts. He provides fairly reliable depth and has an excellent walk rate at 3.6% while putting up a 3.28 xFIP and 0.89 WHIP. The Giants active roster has been better limiting strikeouts in an extended sample, but this season they are league-worst at a 27.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching so far in 2021. The Giants do have a .176 ISO and have hit 48 home runs against righties this year, however, so Buehler could get dinged for some runs against while still putting up a slate-leading start. The ownership warrants monitoring throughout the day as news around other game situations emerges.
Southpaw Sean Manaea is an interesting option at $7,100 on FanDuel and $8,500 on DraftKings. His value and probability of being one of the top options increases significantly if removing some of the other games, as many of the top starters are in risky weather spots. Manaea has completed 54.0 frames in his 10 starts this year while pitching well. He has a 23.6% strikeout rate that is a jump up from his 20.3% over 54.0 innings in 11 starts last season. The additional length displayed by posting the same innings count in one less start is nice to see, as is drop to a 3.67 xFIP, though the walks are slightly up at just 4.8%. Manaea is facing a limited version of the Angels lineup that may not include Shohei Ohtani and will definitely be without Mike Trout. With the Angels leading off Justin Upton and his below .300 on-base percentage and strong propensity to strike out, there are compelling reasons to give Manaea his due consideration.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers warrant brief discussion. The team is facing the remains of Jon Lester, a long-in-the-tooth lefty who has just a 16.8% strikeout rate and a 4.86 xFIP with a 1.50 WHIP and 9.3% walk rate this season. The Brewers are at the top of the Top Stacks board on DraftKings, and they rank similarly on the FanDuel slate. The team is priced down significantly on both sites and they have recently returned Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura to the lineup. While in a good spot against a washed-up, struggling pitcher, the Brewers are drawing too much attention to be a practical option as a go-to stack. The team is pulling in extremely negative leverage marks on both sites tonight, making it a challenge to roster them in unique ways. They are not to be taken off the board entirely, but getting to them in more realistic shares on a slate of this size is advisable.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins look to be in a safe weather game, and they are near the top of the board on both sites with a strong matchup against Kris Bubic. Minnesota typically profiles well against left-handed pitching, given all of their righty power. The team lines up very well against Bubic who has an 18.3% strikeout rate across his first 23.2 innings. This is a strong spot for the Twins, and they are not drawing as much attention as one might expect, though that is likely to change with the weather.
Kyle Garlick occupies the leadoff spot in the projected lineup, and he costs just $2,300 on the FanDuel slate and $3,300 on DraftKings. Garlick has hit three home runs and carries a .260/.276/.493 slash over his first 76 plate appearances. He has a .233 ISO and has created runs 9% better than average so far in 2021. He is inexpensive and unpopular on both sites, making him a great way to get started with Twins constructions for large field GPPs.
Veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson is the highest-owned Twins bat on both sites. He costs just $2,900 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings and is in a strong spot to access his power upside. He has hit five home runs in his 148 plate appearances this season. He has a .236/.338/.415 slash and a .179 ISO but creates runs 11% better than average this year and has far more upside with the bat than the current-year stats indicate. Donaldson should not be skipped with much frequency in Twins stacks, though he may not be the best selection as a one-off from this lineup.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”05/28/2021″ team=”twins”]
Jorge Polanco slots in at both second base and shortstop on both sites. He is slashing .226/.298/.371 with a .145 ISO and has created runs 12% worse than average so far in the season. Polanco has upside for power and speed that is perhaps referenced more frequently in MLB DFS columns than it appears on the field of play. He has hit four home runs and stolen three bases this season. Polanco has a bizarre price discrepancy from site to site. He is the Twins second-most expensive hitter at $5,200 on DraftKings while coming in $100 over the minimum at $2,100 on FanDuel, leading to far more ownership on the latter site.
Nelson Cruz is a go-to option for MLB DFS owners whenever he faces a lefty. Cruz has hit 10 home runs this season and currently sits at .286/.349/.524 with a .238 ISO. He has created runs 38% better than average and has earned every bit of his $3,700 salary on FanDuel and $5,400 on DraftKings. Cruz is worthwhile at those prices, particularly where he is under 5% projected ownership on the DraftKings slate.
Miguel Sano has hit nine home runs in 135 plate appearances but is slashing just .183/.304/.443 this season. Sano is an all-or-nothing option on most slates. He has a .261 ISO and creates runs 9% better than average. For $3,100 on the blue site and $4,200 across town, Sano slots in as a solid option on the corners while pulling in less than 10.0% ownership across the industry. Sano is a strong option that MLB DFS gamers are leaving out of stacks by mistake.
Catcher Mitch Garver has struggled to replicate the performance he had in his breakout 2019. He hit just two home runs and made only 81 plate appearances last year and is off to a .224/.314/.486 start this season. Garver has hit seven home runs in his 121 plate appearances and has a .262 ISO while creating runs 22% better than average this year, so there is still power upside available, particularly where catchers are required. Garver is inexpensive but will be popular tonight.
Rob Refsnyder is a $2,200 second baseman on FanDuel and a $2,400 outfielder on DraftKings. He has made 39 plate appearances this season, hitting two home runs and putting up a .400/.436/.657 in the microscopic sample. Refsnyder has a .257 ISO and has created runs 99% better than average over the limited opportunities. He is an interesting mix in option at no cost and no ownership.
Andrelton Simmons is a solid professional hitter who is cheap, coming in at the same price as Refsnyder on FanDuel and only $300 more on DraftKings. Simmons is adept at avoiding strikeouts and getting on base, making him an interesting wraparound option on the slate. Simmons has a .238/.326/.320 over his first 138 plate appearances but has more upside in his track record. This is not a great target, but he is viable for a few mix-in shares.
Lefty Max Kepler sits at the bottom of the projected lineup in a lefty-lefty matchup. Kepler could sit this one out in the end. He struggles against same-handed pitching. He has a .229 ISO in his career against righties and just a .148 mark against fellow southpaws. Kepler has just a .215/.286/.363 slash and has created runs 27% worse than average in the split for his career, while he sits at .244/.331/.473 and 13% above average against the opposite hand. Kepler will be unowned, and there is always the likelihood that, if the Twins stack goes off, he will see opportunities against righties out of the bullpen, making him one to watch for some low-owned mix-in upside.
HR Call: Mitch Haniger — Seattle Mariners
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.
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