MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 5/24/21

Despite just a six-game slate, the list of MLB DFS picks today looks absolutely loaded with talent. There are solid options, including at least four reliable semi-premium pitchers and a few potential gas cans. There are some unexpected teams ranked highly on the top stacks tool today, given their quality matchups, if they become overly popular there is always the consideration of upside in getting away from bad teams when they are over-owned for being in good spots. Up and down the salary spectrum there are high-caliber MLB DFS picks available on both DraftKings and FanDuel today. On a short slate it will be an interesting exercise to see who can be put together in unique, tournament-winning combinations.

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Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home-run candidates for each team.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 19.01

Chicago White Sox: Tim Anderson — 9.49

Cleveland Indians: Eddie Rosario — 2.44

Colorado Rockies: Brendan Rodgers — 5.72

Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 13.22

Milwaukee Brewers: Avisail Garcia — 8.13

Minnesota Twins: Mitch Garver — 9.15

New York Mets: Francisco Lindor — 5.42

Oakland Athletics: Chad Pinder — 5.62

San Diego Padres: Wil Myers — 5.49

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager — 10.77

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 7.87


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Today’s slate of MLB DFS pitching options is extremely interesting. Padres ace Blake Snell is in an excellent spot for strikeouts and his price is down across the industry, but he brings legitimate concerns about length. Lance Lynn is known for being somewhat the opposite, in that he extends starts and pitches deep into games historically, though that has not necessarily been the case this season. Brandon Woodruff is taking on Snell’s Padres on the other side, and he warrants consideration despite a hefty price tag in a tough matchup. Oakland’s Frankie Montas is in a strong spot taking on the Mariners and priced in the midrange on FanDuel and at a strong discount on DraftKings. Yusei Kikuchi pops up for relevance, carrying a strong projection for the price but in a difficult overall matchup against an Athletics team that pounds left-handed pitching. Similarly, John Means will be interesting given the lack of public ownership due to his unfamiliarly large price tag and the matchup against the Twins. Bringing up the end of the list of today’s deep pool of playable starters, Spencer Turnbull and Austin Gomber are not entirely lacking in utility at their prices on the DraftKings slate. On the blue site they are simply dart throws lacking in significant upside. The appeal is more in eating some innings and limiting the damage an opposing team is able to do against them.

Snell would be a huge favorite for MLB DFS production in this pitching pool were he at all reliable. He has gotten through six innings only once this season, although that was in his most recent outing, hopefully an encouraging sign. Prior to that, Snell had only opened the sixth once, getting through 5.1 innings in a late April start against the Dodgers. Snell has thrown just 40.1 innings in his nine starts, but that is now baked into his pricing. A starter with a 33.0% strikeout rate and a 3.32 xFIP would be higher cost against this Brewers squad in other situations. Milwaukee has a 28.1% strikeout rate as a team against lefties this season, good for fifth worst in baseball. The team has a .154 ISO and creates runs nine percent worse than average in the split. There are worse bets to make than Snell carving up this team, even if he is limited to only 5.0 innings. The issue is the opportunity cost with starters in similar strikeout spots who have a better chance of coming away with quality start bonuses where that is a factor.

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Lynn typically works deep into starts, but he missed the last two weeks of April and then made four consecutive 5.0 inning starts to begin May. His most recent outing was a 6.0 inning game, but Lynn struck out only two Twins. He should be projectable out to extended innings going forward and he has otherwise been on pace. Lynn has a 27.7% strikeout rate and just a 0.98 WHIP on the season, compiling a 3.95 xFIP so far in seven starts. His swinging strike rate matches last season’s performance at exactly 11.2%, while his called strikes are down a negligible amount in a small 40.2 inning sample. Lynn’s repertoire appears to be in midseason form. If he is stretched out once again, it could be a dominant start. The opposing Cardinals are good at limiting strikeouts in the split, they sit eighth in baseball with a 23.1% strikeout rate, though there are some heavy swing and miss hitters throughout the batting order. As a team, St. Louis has created runs 11% worse than average in the split, though they do have 45 home runs against righties, flashing some power upside. Ultimately, this seems like a spot in which he comes out ahead, but it might make sense to roster some under-owned Cardinals hedge stacks if getting over the field on Lynn shares.

Montas has not been sharp to start the season. He is at just a 4.46 xFIP and a 1.40 WHIP, while struggling to strike out hitters at his former levels, putting up just a 21.4% rate this season. He is inducing 11.2% swinging strikes, reasonably close to the 11.7% mark from last year’s down season and the 11.5% from the quality year in 2019. Montas is struggling with control and command however, generating just 14.5% called strikes, but working off the plate has also benefited him with an 85th percentile chase rate. Montas has struggled with contact metrics. He sits in just the 15th percentile in barrel rate allowed, the 25th percentile in hard hit rate and the 34th in average exit velocity allowed. Montas was very good in 2019; prior to his PED suspension he had a 26.1% strikeout rate with a 3.00 xFIP and a 1.11 WHIP over 96.0 innings. After his return last season, he was a different pitcher. Montas put up a 25.3% strikeout rate but had a less than crisp 4.36 xFIP and an ugly 1.51 WHIP in his 53.0 innings. He benefits from facing a Mariners team that sits seventh worst in baseball with a 25.5% strikeout rate and creates runs 13% worse than average against right-handed pitching this season. He is at a strong value price on DraftKings, and he will be a highly popular SP2 for MLB DFS contests, though risk is not entirely absent from the selection.

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For a day on which the Top Pitchers Tool reveals a very broad range of potential outcomes, with minimal separation among the top ranked starters in probability of landing in the top two on DraftKings, it makes sense to explore some of the down-board options. Two starters who do not explode for upside but could provide quality at their price are Spencer Turnbull and Austin Gomber. The latter is facing a depleted Mets lineup that will be targetable until it returns to relative health. Gomber has struck out 24.0% of hitters this season, pitching to a 4.26 xFIP and a 1.30 WHIP. He walks too many hitters at 11.2% this year, but that is a slight improvement from the 12.6% he put up last season. He is in no way safe, but there is upside for just $5,600 in this matchup.

Turnbull is the higher priced of this pair, but he is also likely the more talented pitcher. Turnbull is also in a spot that seems more difficult on the surface, suppressing his ownership to extremes. The Indians active roster that he will be facing strikes out 11th worst in baseball at 24.7% against right-handed pitching. They drive the ball well, putting up a respectable .179 team ISO, but their 35 home runs rank only in the middle of the league, and they have created runs 15% worse than average in the split. Turnbull’s primary asset as a pitcher is his ability to induce an extreme number of ground balls and keep the ball in the park. This season, he is inducing a career high 54.2% ground balls and has limited hard contact and induces over 20% soft contact from hitters, leading to the miniscule marks for Cleveland on the power index above. Turnbull has yielded just one home run in his 34.1 innings this season. He gave up only two last year, working over 56.2 frames, and has never been over 0.85 HR/9, the mark he set in his largest career sample of 148.1 innings in 2019. Turnbull has allowed 18 home runs in 255.2 career innings, for perspective, Robbie Ray has given up 12 home runs in just 47.1 innings already this season and column-favorite target Mike Foltynewicz sits at 11 in 55.2 innings, despite not yielding one over his last three starts. Turnbull is inducing the same 11.1% swinging strike rate he has in the past, if he is able to rack up a few beyond his average he could be in line for a surprisingly good day that is not on the public’s radar.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are at the top of the Top Stacks Tool on both sites, and they are mashing their way to the top of the power index (above), a combination of factors that will always grab attention. The Orioles are in a plus matchup, taking on struggling righty veteran Matt Shoemaker on the road in Minnesota. The Twins starter has an ugly 5.42 xFIP and a 1.45 WHIP on the season while striking out just 14.0% of hitters and inducing just 10.5% swinging strikes, a big dip from his 12.3% from just last year. The Orioles active roster has struggled for production against right-handed pitching this season, putting up just a .138 team ISO and creating runs 18% worse than average, but against this starter and with a roster now returned to health, there is plenty of support for the upside.

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Cedric Mullins has been terrific leading off for the Orioles all season. Over 197 plate appearances, he has a .294/.360/.475 slash with a .181 ISO and six home runs. He has stolen five bases and creates runs 33% better than average, a big jump up in production. Mullins is affordable at $4,100 on DraftKings and just $2,600 on FanDuel, but he will be a popular component of this stack on both sites.

Austin Hays has delivered some of the promised upside this season. Hays’ bat has been long-awaited in Baltimore, but the reliability has yet to arrive. He has a .252/.319/.455 slash, but a solid .203 ISO to start the year. He has hit five home runs and created runs 16% better than average in his 137 plate appearances. There is upside for more production, Hays even adds underrated speed though he is yet to swipe a base this season. He is priced down for his lack of consistency, so he will be very popular on DraftKings and one of the more popular pieces of the lineup across the industry.

Trey Mancini has been back to full production from the get-go this season, after missing all of last year while battling cancer. Mancini’s heroic efforts on a bad team have him with10 home runs in his first 196 plate appearances. He sits at .280/.352/.520 with a .240 ISO while creating runs 41% better than average. Mancini is an excellent option. He is pricey at $5,500 on DraftKings, but that creates a slight dip in ownership that will help roster him on the site. On FanDuel, there is no avoiding the popularity. He will be in lineups at just $4,200, but it makes sense to include him and get to different combinations with other bats.

Similarly, Anthony Santander will be extremely popular on both sites. He returned to the Orioles lineup after missing several weeks and instantly makes this a stronger more dynamic offense. Santander has made just 76 plate appearances this season, smashing three home runs but getting out to just a .246/.280/.420 start. He hit 11 home runs with a .261/.315/.575 and a .314 ISO in his 165 plate appearances just last season, so there is clear upside. 30% of the field will be on the play on both sites, however, making it difficult to love getting beyond the field. He will likely be more popular than that mark within lineups that include Orioles stacks, it is simply difficult to weaponize this lineup without him.

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Right-handed third baseman Maikel Franco seems like a good candidate for a turnaround now that he has a bit more around him in the lineup. He was off to a rough start at jus t.199/.256/.331 with four home runs in his first 180 plate appearances this season. He has just a .133 ISO and has created runs 36% worse than average. This situation has both his price and his ownership dramatically reduced. Franco makes the first strong sneaky option off the board for us. He had a .177 ISO average over the 2019 and 2020 seasons and hit 25 home runs in 671 plate appearances over the season-and-a-half sample.

Switch-hitting shortstop Freddy Galvis is the type of player who breaks a couple of surprising slates a season, and he has quietly been off to a strong start to his 2021 campaign. Galvis has hit six home runs and put up a .212 ISO over his first 153 plate appearances this year. He has a .263/.329/.474 slash and has created runs 23% better than average. There is plenty of overlooked value in getting to Galvis in the later-middle part of the order at just $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings. He is under 10.0% projected ownership on both sites.

Ryan Mountcastle is drawing some attention on the DraftKings slate but is ignored on FanDuel. He has dual-position eligibility at first base and outfield on both sites, adding to his overall utility and upside. Over 171 plate appearances this season, Mountcastle has a disappointing .130 ISO and has created runs 34% worse than average. He has hit four home runs but sits at only .224/.251/.354 so far, which is problematic for a team that was relying on the youngster to provide something similar to the .333/.386/.492 he flashed as a rookie in 140 plate appearances in 2020. Mountcastle is a highly talented player who was denied full development time by circumstance. He will round into form, but it is not surprising to see him start the season slowly. If that has the public off him — at least on one site — there is good reason to buy into the talent for a night, at a minimal investment.

Catcher Pedro Severino is fine to include in DraftKings stacks, but he is unlikely to be enough of a difference maker to warrant going out of the way for him. He has just one home run and a .237/.313/.297 with a .059 ISO this year. He hit five home runs in 178 chances last season, and the upside is simply limited.

Severino is followed by second baseman Stevie Wilkerson who is also an afterthought at the bottom of the batting order. Wilkerson is a 29-year-old journeyman utilityman who is more of a “quad-A” player. He has a career .223/.281/.368 triple slash in his 421 plate appearances, there is little to no value here other than an “any given night” dart throw.

HR Call: Anthony Santander — Baltimore Orioles

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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