Today’s split-slate Saturday brings us a six-game main slate in the evening that will be our focus for this article. The home run picks below include the seven-game afternoon slate that starts at 4 pm, but the power index and the analysis that follows do not. The main slate brings us just one truly reliable top-tier pitcher, followed by a handful of question marks and upstarts from the mid-range and a selection of young arms. Overall, it appears to be a slate on which bats should dominate. While we lack Coors Field proper, we do have Coors Field East to continue attacking in Florida, and with Robbie Ray pulling significant ownership taking on the Rays in that park, it could make sense to play some leverage against the erratic lefty and ride what has been an excellent spot for offense so far. Several teams on the slate stand out for power potential but are still trending under-owned. This should be an extremely interesting contest with plenty of excellent DFS MLB picks available on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home-run candidates for each team.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
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Home Run Ratings
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 10.12
Baltimore Orioles: Freddy Galvis — 5.90
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 14.03
Chicago Cubs: Anthony Rizzo — 11.21
Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez — 9.42
Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 13.77
Detroit Tigers: Johnathan Schoop — 5.16
Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker — 12.31
Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 10.08
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 6.10
Los Angeles Dodgers: Will Smith — 7.29
Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 27.12
Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 5.82
Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 6.07
New York Mets: Dominic Smith — 3.70
Oakland Athletics: Sean Murphy — 13.09
Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 4.75
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 7.91
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 5.37
San Francisco Giants: Mike Yastrzemski — 9.48
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager — 5.25
St. Louis Cardinals: Justin Williams — 6.19
Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 16.07
Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun — 5.95
Toronto Blue Jays: Bo Bichette — 10.37
Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 14.55
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
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On the Hill
Today’s pool of MLB DFS pitching options has one clear standout pitcher and a few interesting options in good to decent spots. With only 12 pitchers to choose from, gamers can’t be overly picky about specific pitcher ownership projections. If you are going to the best options, they are going to be popular. Looking through the Top Pitchers Tool, the Dodgers Walker Buehler seems to be in the driver’s seat on both sites. The righty is the most talented pitcher on the slate by a fair margin, and he is in a quality matchup. The rest of the options on the board become uncomfortable quickly. Robbie Ray is pitching on a Little League field and is not overly trustworthy on his best day. Nathan Eovaldi is erratic as well, and he is facing a quality Philadelphia lineup that has underperformed expectations so far. The Cubs will have young righty Adbert Alzolay on the mound against the Cardinals, another spot that looks tricky at best. One of the more quiet options on the board currently is Oakland’s Chris Bassitt, who is yet to earn the love from MLB DFS players despite his good start to 2021.
Of all the options, Buehler has the most overall upside on any given slate. The righty has been sharp to begin the year. He boasts an excellent 3.6% walk rate on the year with a sparkling 0.88 WHIP, keeping opposing runners off of the base paths and limiting the damage that can be done against him. Buehler helps his cause with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 3.28 xFIP so far this season. The strikeouts are on par with his 28.6% in 36.2 innings last year, and the xFIP represents an improvement from 3.93. Buehler is facing a Giants team that has been sneaky for power upside this season. The active roster is one of baseball’s best, with 46 home runs and a .179 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Their tradeoff is that they strike out at a league-worst 28.5% in the split and, despite the pop, have created runs three percent worse than average against righties. Buehler is an excellent spot to rack up strikeouts and, even if the Giants get to him for a home run or two, seems likely to limit any damage while adding a good shot at a win and a quality start bonus.
Robbie Ray is concerning. He projects well, given the strikeout upside that has long been obvious for the southpaw and the terrific current form he has displayed. Ray has been sharp this season, putting up a 28.9% strikeout rate with a 3.44 xFIP and a 1.17 WHIP in 40.1 innings. The WHIP is interesting for a pitcher who is typically in the mid-1.3s or higher. Ray’s previous career low WHIP was 1.15 over 162 innings for Arizona in 2017. It remains difficult to trust the pitcher and buy into the improved walk rate. Ray has not been below 10% walks since 2016 and has never sniffed this level of quality in limiting the free pass; his previous career-low in the category was 9.0% in 2015 in his first full season. Ray is a wild pitcher who puts too many runners on base in a typical start. It will take more than 40 innings to prove otherwise. In that same sample this season, Ray sits in the bottom 10th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, the 7th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and the 15th percentile of barrel rate allowed. Ray ranks as one of the better starters on both sites tonight by the probability of success, but he is carrying significant negative leverage. He is not safe on a normal night, and he will be pitching in Toronto’s proxy home that has played as an extreme hitters park so far this season. Buyer beware.
Alzolay is inexpensive but not overly popular. The young righty has been excellent to start his 2021 campaign. He has a 27.5% strikeout rate and just a 4.9% walk rate in his 37.0 innings over seven starts so far, with a noteworthy 3.33 xFIP and a 0.89 WHIP to boot. Alzolay was a well-regarded prospect coming up, and he had a robust 33.3% strikeout rate in his 21.1 inning cup of coffee last season. There is a clear upside in the arm. Alzolay is inducing 13.4% swinging strikes this season, though he is facing a Cardinals roster that has just a 23.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. St. Louis has shown power in the split. Their 44 home runs against righties rank as one of the leading teams, but their overall ISO is a surprisingly average .157, and they create runs 10% worse than average in the split. Alzolay could be in a quietly strong spot in this contest. He should not be overlooked.
Chris Bassitt warrants your attention. The Athletics’ righty has a 3.70 xFIP and a 1.14 WHIP so far this season, and he has struck out 25.4% of hitters over his first 53.1 innings. Bassitt has made significant strides over the past few seasons, taking his swinging strike rate from 6.8% in 2018 to 9.9% last season and 11.6% so far this year. He has used his six-pitch mix to keep hitters guessing, relying on a 93.1 mph turbo sinker and a 94.0 mph four-seamer with a cutter working off of them at 89.2 mph to set up his arsenal of off-speed and breaking pitches. Bassitt has been excellent at limiting quality contact, with the expected slugging percentage against most of his arsenal well below average. He sits in the 65th percentile of hard-hit rate allowed, the 58th in average exit velocity, and the 82nd in barrel rate, suggesting his ability to work to all parts of the zone with different types of pitches at different speeds has hitters completely off balance. Bassitt’s improved strikeouts are enabled by a 52nd percentile chase rate this season, but he has remained sharp in walking just 6.3% of hitters. The righty is facing an Angels lineup that will be without all-galaxy superstar Mike Trout. The Angels sit just 11th worst in the league with a 24.8% strikeout rate against right-handers, a number that is boosted by one or two excellent hitters who help cover up some atrocious strikeout rates of teammates. Bassitt is an excellent option at a low cost and low ownership on both sites.
Oakland Athletics
Backing up their underappreciated starter, the Athletics offense is profiling for a solid night against likely starter Patrick Sandoval. The lefty is not yet confirmed as of this sentence, but he seems the most likely option and is announced in some corners. Sandoval has thrown just 11.1 innings this season, making one start so far. Over the course of his 87.1 innings at the Major League level since his 2019 debut, Sandoval has compiled a 4.09 xFIP with a 22.4% strikeout rate, but the appeal is in the ugly 2.06 HR/9 the lefty has allowed. This is a good target for power bats, and the Athletics offer plenty of those, particularly on the right side of the plate.
Likely leadoff man Mark Canha has hit nine home runs in his 198 plate appearances already this season. Canha has a .250/.374/.463 triple slash with a .213 ISO to start the year and is an excellent option to produce power on his own or contribute to an Athletics stack by getting on ahead of some of the power behind him in the batting order. Canha has created runs 42% better than average this season. He is popular but an integral part of Athletics stacks.
Switch-hitting Jed Lowrie has defied expectations so far this season, getting himself back to respectability at a .255/.329/.405 with four home runs in his 170 plate appearances. Lowrie did not play last season and couldn’t get off the bench for the Mets prior to that, so the renaissance is surprising, even if it is somewhat unspectacular. Lowrie is a quality option who is rarely expensive or popular, making him a good fit in stacks.
Outfielder Ramon Laureano is a strong option for power and speed. If he is hitting third as projected, the appeal grows given the RBI potential. Laureano has hit 11 home runs already this season while adding eight stolen bases, making him quietly one of the top-end MLB DFS options on most slates where he has appeared. Laureano costs just $3,400 on FanDuel but $5,200 on DraftKings, where his talent has been recognized. The public ownership on the latter site is more appealing, but even around 12% on the blue site, Laureano makes a lot of sense. The performance so far is not a surprise. This is a player who hit 24 home runs and stole 13 bases in just 481 plate appearances in 2019.
Matt Olson is a lefty power bat that gamers should feel free to roster despite the potentially same-handed matchup. Olson’s power shines through enough against lefties that his upside remains intact. He is at a career .199 mark while creating runs three percent better than average. He strikes out at the same rate against both hands, though the power is inarguably better against righties, where the slugger stands out with his .281 ISO. If we expect the Athletics to chase Sandoval early, there should be plenty of opportunities for Olson to get quality appearances on the good side of splits as well. It is difficult for a team to match him with a lefty reliever when he is surrounded by right-handed power late in a game.
Matt Chapman is one of those right-handed thumpers protecting Olson in the lineup. The third baseman has just a .217/.315/.376 slash to start the year, no doubt disappointing for his usual production. Still, we can believe in the track record. Chapman contributed 36 home runs with a .257 ISO in 670 plate appearances in 2019. If he is underpriced and under-owned for the current performance, so much the better.
Outfielder Stephen Piscotty is not the hitter he once was. He is off to a rough .202/.279/372 start but has a .170 ISO and has hit four home runs. Piscotty is a much better option against lefties for his career, creating runs 27% better than average compared to just two percent ahead in same-handed matchups. He is not a special option today, but he is in play depending on where he falls in the Oakland lineup and how he fits for salary, ownership and positioning with secondary stacks.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”05/22/2021″ team=”athletics”]
Catcher Sean Murphy is a strong option for power, and he will be under-owned on the DraftKings slate where we are required to roster the position. Murphy has a significant power upside. He has hit five home runs in just 139 plate appearances this season, putting up a .200 ISO so far, though he struggles with contact and is at just .217/.324/.417 overall. Still, despite the weak hit tool, Murhpy has created runs 15% better than average and is a strong consideration for low-owned upside at a key position.
Chad Pinder has made just 31 plate appearances this season and only had 61 last year, but he showed clear upside in hitting 13 home runs in just 370 plate appearances in 2019, and he creates runs well against left-handed pitching, putting up a career 113 WRC+. Pinder is inexpensive at $2,400 on DraftKings, but he looks extremely popular on the site, which would make him somewhat easy to skip if he hits late in the lineup. He is more in play if he is in the top few hitters in the confirmed batting order. On FanDuel, Pinder is not over-owned, and he can be mixed into Athletics stacks at will. Though he is only a middling option, he costs the flat minimum and offers positional flexibility. There is an appeal in those attributes.
Elvis Andrus is at just .183/.229/.232 and a shadow of the player he once was. Andrus is a desperation option only at this point. He was below the Mendoza line last season as well. In 111 plate appearances, he was at just .194/.252/.330 with three home runs and three stolen bases. This year the power has also departed. Andrus has no home runs but has matched the three steals already.
HR Call: Matt Olson — Oakland Athletics
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.
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