A strange Saturday of MLB DFS action has games and partial games scattered through the day on varying slates, with the mid-afternoon contests featuring the largest player pools and smallest prize pools on FanDuel, while DraftKings has a full 10-game afternoon affair. Both sites are running four-game Main Slates in the evening, which is the primary focus of the daily fantasy analysis below. The home run picks include the afternoon games beginning with the 2 pm slate but misses the DraftKings doubleheader games, while the power index focuses only on the four full games from the evening main slate. In addition to several partial games, the afternoon slate has a few weather concerns as well. Tuning in for Live Before Lock later in the day will help provide some further clarity. The evening’s main slate features four games with only one premium pitching option, making bats the major focus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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MLB DFS picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel will come together in interesting ways today, and it should be a good time for building unique constructions.
Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home-run candidates for each team.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Eduardo Escobar — 8.36
Atlanta Braves: Ozzie Albies — 5.36
Baltimore Orioles: Maikel Franco — 3.42
Boston Red Sox: JD Martinez — 7.00
Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez — 6.09
Chicago White Sox: Jake Lamb — 7.80
Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez — 8.74
Cleveland Indians: Josh Naylor — 9.20
Detroit Tigers: Nomar Mazara — 8.85
Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker — 5.79
Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 9.39
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani — 14.79
Los Angeles Dodgers: Will Smith — 4.90
Miami Marlins: Corey Dickerson — 3.25
Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz — 11.24
New York Mets: Billy McKinney — 3.01
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 3.26
Oakland Athletics: Seth Brown — 5.68
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 23.04
San Francisco Giants: Brandon Crawford — 4.36
Seattle Mariners: Jarred Kelenic — 15.56
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 12.74
Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 10.62
Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk — 17.71
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The evening main slate has an extremely limited set of pitchers, with Ian Anderson of the Braves leading the way on both sites in his matchup against the mostly minor league Mets. Following Anderson, we have expensive Julio Urias in an interesting spot against the Giants and Taijuan Walker on the other side of the contest featuring Anderson. The only other semi-reliable starter on the slate is veteran Adam Wainwright, who is taking on the Diamondbacks in the desert in the night’s highest totaled game.
Anderson was highlighted in this space just yesterday before the game was erased. The analysis remains largely the same for tonight’s game: “Anderson has struck out 25.2% of hitters this season, posting a 3.26 xFIP with a 1.20 WHIP over his 51.0 innings this season, inducing 11.8% swinging strikes. Anderson is facing an extremely watered-down Mets lineup that is missing most of its key hitters for a varied list of injuries. The active Mets roster has just a .118 ISO and has created runs 15% worse than average against righties this season, while hitting just 25 home runs in the split all year.”
Urias costs $10,000 on DraftKings and $11,500 on the FanDuel slate. The lefty is off to a strong start in 2021, completing 62.1 innings over his 10 starts, providing reliable depth for MLB DFS purposes. Urias is striking out 29.4% of hitters and has walked just 2.9%, putting up a 3.09 xFIP and a 0.82 WHIP. The southpaw is inducing 13.8% swinging strikes this season, adding 20.4% called for a stellar 34.2% CSW%. The opposing Giants’ active roster has been good against left-handed pitching this season. As a team, they have a .182 ISO and have hit 21 home runs in the split, placing them among the league leaders. The Giants sit eighth-best in baseball with a 22.6% strikeout rate against lefties this year while creating runs nine percent better than average. Urias is at a tough price and in a difficult matchup, but he is easily the clear-cut number two on the slate on both sites.
Wainwright has pitched well for the most part through the early portion of the 2021 season. The veteran righty has a 3.89 xFIP and a 1.19 WHIP through his first nine starts, completing 54.2 innings. He has struck out 22.4% of hitters while walking 7.0%. The strikeout rate is up from where it had been over the past few seasons, though Wainwright is inducing fewer swinging strikes than last season at just 8.5%, Wainwright is facing an Arizona team that sits in the middle of the league with a 23.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, but creates runs 11% worse than average and has just a .144 team ISO in the split. Wainwright is in a quality spot in terms of the overall matchup, but the conditions in Arizona will be primed for hitting, assuming the roof is open on a nearly 100-degree night in the desert.
7-innings
The DraftKings slate includes the second of the Brewers at Nationals 7-inning double-header games. The contest will feature veteran southpaws Brett Anderson and Jon Lester squaring off, at least briefly. This profiles as a great spot for offensive production, and these would be slate-leading stack options in a full nine-inning game. Both teams profile well for power, though the Nationals are slightly favored in my home run model. The improving Brewers are outpacing them on the Top Stacks board, however, as they are in the slightly more positive matchup taking on Lester’s ghost. Both teams are in play and are tracking to be under-owned, given that we have to sacrifice potentially multiple plate appearances by comparison to the full games available.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals offense is lining up as the top stack on both sites tonight, taking on Seth Frankoff in the Arizona heat. Frankoff has made two starts this season, completing 8.2 innings. He has just a 14.6% strikeout rate and a 12.2% walk rate so far this year, with an ugly 5.23 xFIP and a 1.73 WHIP. The 32-year-old is a minor league and international journeyman. He is a big target on this slate for his overall lack of ability at the Major League level. The Cardinals will be very popular, but they have a very strong chance of being the top stack on the slate. Getting to them in unique ways will be both challenging and worthwhile.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”05/29/2021″ team=”cardinals”]
Tommy Edman provides a dynamic combination of mid-range power and speed. So far this season, he has made 231 plate appearances, hitting four home runs and stealing 10 bases. He has a .274/.329/.392 slash with a .118 ISO while creating runs four percent ahead of the average. Edman has multi-position eligibility on both sites. He is a shortstop and second baseman on DraftKings and a second baseman and outfielder on the blue site, where he is also far less expensive.
Dylan Carlson has been out to a strong start with the hit tool and getting on base this season, putting up a .271/.360/.394 slash with three home runs over his first 200 plate appearances. Carlson profiles for reasonable power, his minor league track record topped out at 21 home runs over 483 plate appearances in AA in 2019, 15 overall would be a reasonable expectation this season. Hitting second in the lineup and getting on base ahead of the true run creators is a plus skill. Carlson should be included in most Cardinals builds.
First baseman Paul Goldschmidt is inexpensive at just $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel. He has had a slow start to the year, putting up just a .251/.310/.400 triple slash with a .149 ISO while creating runs exactly at league average. Goldschmidt has hit six home runs in 213 plate appearances so far this season, equaling the mark he reached over 231 tries last year. The hitter is a known commodity. Getting to him at these prices is appealing, though he will also be the most popular of the Cardinals hitters on both sites.
Third baseman Nolan Arenado has rewarded the Cardinals’ faith in bringing him to town so far. He has a .290/.336/.550 line over his first 217 plate appearances with the Cardinals, hitting 11 home runs and posting a .260 ISO. The veteran is creating runs 40% better than average so far this season and is a mainstay in the St. Louis lineup and in stacks with the team. He will also be extremely popular, more so on FanDuel, where he costs only $3,600.
Veteran star catcher Yadier Molina is undergoing a renaissance so far in the early part of 2021. Molina is slashing .297/.328/.547 with a .250 ISO to start the year, and he already has seven home runs in just 137 plate appearances. The ancient one is always a steady option to roster at catcher, though he makes for a far sneakier play on FanDuel where he is optional rather than required. Molina is the first Cardinals hitter with less than 10% projected ownership on the blue site tonight, keeping him firmly in play if he is in the lineup.
Slugger Tyler O’Neill is an all-or-nothing option from later in the lineup. The outfielder costs just $3,400 on the DraftKings slate and $3,000 on FanDuel and is pulling in the top mark on the team in my custom home run model. O’Neill has titanic power when he connects. He has hit 10 home runs in just 116 plate appearances this season and has a monstrous .321 ISO. O’Neill is striking out at a 33.6% rate so far this season while walking just 2.6% of the time and is benefitting from a .321 batting average on balls in play so far this year, boosting his triple slash to an appealing .257/.293/.578. He is a strong option but joins the list of popular Cardinals players today.
Edmundo Sosa and outfielder Justin Williams round out the lineup at a low cost on both sites. Sosa is a $2,900 shortstop on DraftKings and a $2,200 second baseman on FanDuel. He has a .313/.441/.417 over his first 59 plate appearances this season and has added two stolen bases to pad MLB DFS scoring. Sosa is a positional and salary-based mix and match play on this slate. Williams costs the minimum on FanDuel and will be the only low-owned Cardinals hitter on DraftKings, where he slots in at $2,400. The outfielder is at just .156/.264/.239 over his first 125 plate appearances this season. Despite his three home runs in the small sample, Williams sits at just a .083 ISO. He is an afterthought at best, but one with minor home run upside.
HR Call: Jarred Kelenic — Seattle Mariners
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.
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