MLB DFS Picks, Ownership, HRs & Top Stacks for DraftKings + FanDuel

The Sunday afternoon main slate has 10 games on deck for us and there are a wealth of quality pitching and hitting options. The slate has a significant number of question marks to deal with as well; on the pitching side of things, gamers could benefit from having faith in career track records of some struggling players, while clear upside is somewhat more scarce. Getting to the top stacks is always our priority, with some of our favorite targetable pitchers taking the mound today that should be less of a challenge. As the weather warms across the country, game totals are rising and offensive fireworks, those trends should continue across MLB DFS today, making for some potentially high-scoring contests with plenty of excellent MLB DFS picks available on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home-run candidates for each team.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. — 12.29

Baltimore Orioles: Maikel Franco — 10.54

Boston Red Sox: Hunter Renfroe — 4.15

Chicago White Sox: Jake Lamb — 14.40

Cincinnati Reds: Nick Castellanos — 5.63

Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 13.43

Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario — 5.61

Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 22.66

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler — 9.69

Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 27.72

Milwaukee Brewers: Dan Vogelbach — 5.79

Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 10.10

New York Mets: Francisco Lindor — 14.25

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 5.09

Philadelphia Phillies: Alec Bohm — 6.87

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 3.07

Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Brosseau — 4.24

Texas Rangers: Nate Lowe — 10.40

Toronto Blue Jays: Marcus Semien — 11.07

Washington Nationals: Kyle Schwarber — 12.06

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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

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On the Hill

MLB DFS pitching picks today have a few obvious looking spots and several major ongoing question marks about formerly reliable arms. With several comfortable options at the peak of the Top Pitchers tool, gamers can roster some easy chalk or choose to walk a bit further out on the edge looking for low-owned upside. Freddy Peralta has been electric to start the season and he sits atop the board on both sites for the afternoon, while other high-end starters like Zack Wheeler, Cristian Javier and Max Fried are all very much in play. Beyond that list, the board gets somewhat thin with several big questions leading into largely unplayable options. The biggest of those mysteries is Reds starter Luis Castillo who has struggled horribly to start 2021 and is now priced down dramatically for the talent an in a great spot.

Peralta is the most likely pitcher to end up atop the board at the end of the day on both DraftKings and FanDuel, still he is not in a safe spot, taking on the smoking hot Reds offense. Cincinnati sits fourth in baseball against right-handed pitching with a .184 team ISO and they are second with 53 home runs in the split. The Reds strike out just 22.8% of the time and create runs 11% better than average against righties. Meanwhile, Peralta has been dominant. He has struck out 39.2% of hitters across his first 45.0 innings in eight starts, posting a 3.26 xFIP with a 0.89 WHIP along the way. Peralta is inducing 15.7% swinging strikes and he sits in the 86th percentile in hard hit rate allowed and the 88th of average exit velocity yielded, dramatically limiting the upside of opposing offenses. This is not an easy spot, but Peralta has a chance to shine once again. He is closer to appropriate ownership on DraftKings, where there is slightly positive leverage available, but he the field is over the top on him on the blue site.

Southpaw Max Fried draws a very weak Pirates team that struggles to create any offense in the split. Pittsburgh has hit only eight home runs against lefties this season and they have a .132 team ISO while creating runs 22% worse than average against southpaws. The Pirates strike out around the league average at 24.3% in the split this season, Fried has upside for a few additional whiffs and there is very little threatening him back the other way. He is at a 3.92 xFIP and an ugly 1.61 WHIP this season, striking out 24.8% of hitters in the 28.0 innings he has completed in six starts. There are concerns about the length and the current-year struggles, but Fried has clear talent and a long enough track record to rely on him.

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With Castillo on the other side, the Brewers – Reds game would normally be expected to be a bit of a pitching duel, but given his struggles getting going this season, that seems unlikely. Castillo has made nine starts, completing 42.1 innings in 2021. He has just a 19.8% strikeout rate with a 1.80 WHIP. Castillo is pitching better than the back of the baseball card indicates, but he is suffering from a .391 batting average on balls in play against and boasts a 3.99 xFIP compared to an atrocious 7.44 ERA. This is a pitcher who has gotten unlucky to a degree with the earned runs and runners on base, but the lack of strikeouts is a clear concern. Castillo has added spin to his full pitch mix but seemingly lost swing-and-miss effectiveness across the board. He had a 15.9% swinging strike rate in 2019, when he struck out 28.9% of hitters, last year he sat down 30.5% of opponents, inducing 15.4% swinging strikes. This season that mark has fallen precipitously to 11.3% swinging strikes. Castillo is facing the Brewers, who strike out 26.8% of the time in the split, fourth worst in baseball. They have created runs 19% worse than average and posted a .141 team ISO against right-handed pitching. This is a good spot, but there are indicators that the strikeout upside could be reduced and Castillo’s struggles could continue. The cheap prices are appealing on both sites, but Castillo is drawing significant attention, making him a challenging inflection point on the MLB DFS slate today.

Houston Astros

The Astros are in a clear go-to spot facing Mike Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz managed to not yield any home runs for two straight starts, but he still gave up five runs on seven hits in his most recent outing against the Yankees, lasting only 3.1 innings and striking out just one hitter. He has had a major problem with power the past few seasons and he struggles to keep runners off the base paths, a team like Houston could absolutely feats in this spot. The Astros are very popular on FanDuel, but less so on DraftKings, where they are highly priced up from top to bottom.

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Jose Altuve should be in his customary spot atop the lineup. He has been back to form this season, putting up a .304/.358/.446 slash while creating runs 28% better than average. He is pricey on both sites, coming in at a whopping $6,000 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel. The field is somewhat behind on the play on DraftKings, given the pricing, but Altuve belongs in Astros stacks.

Michael Brantley is a lefty bat in the outfield, and he has a .309/.351/.463 slash to start the year, creating runs 31% better than average overall. Brantley has long been an excellent hitter; he flashes power from time to time and makes for a strong option against a weak righty. Brantley finds most of his power on this side of splits. He is in the right spot to produce but he will be very popular on the FanDuel slate, where he costs just $2,800.

Alex Bregman is the third of five Astros hitting over .300 to start the season from the top of the lineup. He has a .318/.401/.470 slash but just a .152 ISO and five home runs in his 172 plate appearances, a bit short of the usual power expectations. Bregman hit six home runs in 180 tries last year but had a .209 ISO and in 2019 he hit 41 long balls with a tremendous .296 ISO. There is major upside in play against this pitcher.

Yordan Alvarez is one of the most likely players to hit a home run in my personal home run model today. He is rapidly ascending to the heights of one of the most fearsome hitters in the game. Over 164 plate appearances this season he has a .320/.354/.542 slash with seven home runs and a .222 ISO, there is nothing to dislike about the play for MLB DFS purposes, but the public is seeing that as well. Alvarez is pushing 20% public ownership on DraftKings, far more on the FanDuel slate.

Yuli Gurriel is too cheap for his talents, but the sites have to let gamers roster Astros somehow. Gurriel is off to a .325/.394/.546 slash with seven home runs and a .221 ISO to start the year. Now in his fifth full year since defecting from Cuba, Gurriel is having perhaps his best Major League season. Gurriel is excellent against same-handed pitching. He has a .294/.329/.469 slash while creating runs 15% better than average against same-handed pitching and he strikes out just 11.3% of the time. Gurriel is one of many Astros who will be putting the ball in play and circling the bases today.

Carlos Correa is another Astros player who is priced over $6,000 on DraftKings. He is out to a .271/.335/.435 start to his season, blasting six home runs and creating runs 20% better than average. The field is trailing the play on both sites however, not wanting to pay full freight for a player perceived as underperforming. Correa is still a solid engine in the Astros offense, if he is under-owned by the field, there is good reason to include him in stacks.

Kyle Tucker has both power and speed. This year he has hit 10 home runs and stolen three bases in just 184 plate appearances. Tucker has a .233 ISO and creates runs nine percent better than average this season. Against right-handed pitching, Tucker has a .231 career ISO against righties and has created runs 11% better than average, facing a righty who is far underperforming compared to an average starter, this is a great spot for Tucker, sacrificing a plate appearance to offset some cost and ownership seems worthwhile.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”05/23/2021″ team=”astros”]

Myles Straw has stolen five bases this season, but gets on at just a .305 clip, not nearly enough to take advantage of his primary skillset. Straw has a .230/.305/.270 slash with just a .041 ISO. He hits nothing hard, so if he is not on base, he is not creating runs or helping the team. That leads to his 71 WRC+. Straw is skippable.

Martin Maldonado is at just .161/.230/.286 this year with three home runs in his 122 plate appearances. He is an afterthought in this offense, even when a catcher is required, though he will be very unpopular and inexpensive, which does provide some edge in building with this team. While not a traditional wrap-around play, if Maldonado is that cheap at the bottom of the lineup, he could be in play in stack constructions leading back to the top, gamers should just be ready to take a zero more often than not.

HR Call: Adam Duvall — Miami Marlins

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.