MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 5/30/21

MLB DFS action today is a nice Sunday summary of the week that was, with an afternoon main slate loaded with quality pitching, excellent spots for offense and a few games threatened by weather. The Milwaukee – Washington and Kansas City – Minnesota games are facing light rain situations, and games seem likely to play but are worth monitoring. The Miami – Boston game is appearing to be more threatened, but given the Red Sox willingness to play all of the weekend in cold rainy conditions, the game should take place. The remaining seven games are safe and feature many of the go-to choices for the slate.

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Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home-run candidates for each team.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 9.77

Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts — 5.97

Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez — 9.25

Chicago White Sox: Yermin Mercedes — 4.88

Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Naquin — 10.37

Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon — 11.24

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 6.63

Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 13.17

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler — 17.11

Miami Marlins: Starling Marte — 7.01

Milwaukee Brewers: Daniel Vogelbach — 10.07

Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 5.60

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 31.48

Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 5.66

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jacob Stallings — 2.98

San Diego Padres: Eric Hosmer — 5.59

Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 8.13

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 8.39


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

This afternoon’s slate of pitching has numerous strong options available for MLB DFS picks. With superstar starter Max Scherzer leading the way in a solid matchup against the swing and miss happy Brewers we have a clear-cut top option on the board. Scherzer is followed by several noteworthy next-tier starters, including Brandon Woodruff, Lucas Giolito, Blake Snell and Tyler Mahle. Scherzer and Woodruff are facing one another in a game with some light rain in the forecast, so they are not entirely safe but seem likely to succeed. The rest of the premium options are in relatively safe spots, with Giolito in the easiest matchup in his game against the Orioles. Bargain shoppers can look to Eduardo Rodriguez against Miami if that game happens to play dry, while Kyle Freeland is an uncomfortable option at a great price in a good spot.

Scherzer has been up to his old tricks to start the season. He is dealing at a 3.07 xFIP with a 0.85 WHIP while striking out 35.6% of hitters over his first 10 starts. Scherzer has completed 63.1 innings so far, providing MLB DFS owners with reliable depth and strong odds at getting to win and quality start bonuses. Scherzer is a long-established ace and one of the best pitchers in the league. He is inarguably worth the $10,800 on DraftKings and $12,000 on FanDuel on most slates, today’s is no different. He will be facing a Brewers team that is improved but still sitting fourth worst in baseball with a 26.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Milwaukee has a lowly .138 team ISO in the split and has created runs 20% worse than average. Scherzer should be facing only minimal threat and is in a great spot to rack up strikeouts. The primary threat here would be uncooperative weather, although there are also other starters on the board at lower salaries who are certainly capable of at least keeping pace with Scherzer, making ownership and leverage key factors in this decision point.

On the other side of that contest, Woodruff will be facing a Nationals lineup that ranks third-best in baseball against righties, with just a 21.8% strikeout rate. The team has not been great for power or run creation in the split, posting just a .140 team ISO and creating runs 9% worse than average. Woodruff, meanwhile, has been terrific to start 2021. In 10 starts, he has a 2.82 xFIP and a 0.70 WHIP with a 30.8% strikeout rate, while providing depth. Woodruff has completed 64.0 innings in his starts, giving MLB DFS players another strong option for a quality start. The win bonus in this one will be hard earned by whichever pitcher comes up with it, it could be the differentiator between the two elite options’ fantasy scores.

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Giolito is slightly less reliable for depth. He has thrown 55.2 innings over his first 10 starts in 2021, putting up a solid 3.58 xFIP and a 1.17 WHIP with a 28.6% strikeout rate. Those marks are down across the board, who was at a 33.7% strikeout rate and a 3.35 xFIP with a 1.04 WHIP in his 72.1 innings over 12 starts in 2020. Giolito’s swinging strike rate has dropped from 17.3% to 15.0% this season. His fastball velocity has dropped from an average of 94.0 to 93.6 mph this season, while his changeup velocity has increased from 80.9 to 81.5 mph, which is a significant impact to the overall velocity differential. He is throwing his slider with added spin from where he was last season, but the pitch has been less effective and generates fewer swings and misses and in previous seasons. Ultimately, Giolito is likely fine, but there are noteworthy indicators for why his numbers have been slightly down this season. He could be in a solid spot to get right in his matchup against the Orioles. Baltimore is 11th worst in baseball with a 24.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. They have a .140 team ISO and create runs 18% behind the average, while hitting just 27 home runs in the split this season, among the lowest totals in baseball. Giolito is at a discount for his upside and the matchup, coming in at $10,000 on FanDuel and $9,600 on DraftKings. He makes for an excellent pivot from the apex aces.

Tyler Mahle is taking on a tricky Cubs lineup in the last game of the slate and he is at a relative pricing discount to some of the other premium pitchers. Mahle is trailing his breakout 2020 numbers but still pitching well. He has a 26.5% strikeout rate over his first 50.1 innings this season, down from 29.9% last year, but is walking fewer hitters at just 8.5% which is down from 10.4% in 2020. Mahle has a 3.90 xFIP and a 1.23 WHIP, and his swinging strikes are down from 13.8% last season to 10.6% this year, which runs counter to expectation given the added spin in his arsenal of pitches. Mahle appears to be struggling to make the enhanced repertoire hum quite as well as he did with the improvements in the same areas going into last year. Still, he sits in the 61st percentile of hard-hit rate allowed, the 55th percentile of barrel rate allowed and the 65th percentile in expected slugging percentage. Mahle is in a good position to limit the overall upside of the Cubs offense, Chicago is the league average sitting 14th in strikeout rate against righties with a 24.4% mark and creating runs exactly at the average in the split. For the minimal investment, this is a strong spot to grab some Mahle shares, particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings.

New York Yankees

The Yankees are obliterating the top of the power index today, with the entire roster showing a strong chance of hitting a home run in the team’s matchup against lefty Tarik Skubal. With Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge leading the ownership projections on FanDuel and among the top few on DraftKings, getting to key Yankees bats in unique ways is going to require some creativity. Playing the ownership and weaving through the lineup to hitters like Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar from later in the batting order provides minimal breathing room, while Gleyber Torres is still underpriced and under-owned for his talent and spot in the lineup. Torres has been coming on strong in recent weeks and the public remains behind the curve. Rostering the most obvious Yankees is walking a popular path today, but there are ways to put this lineup together that will be far less likely to be duplicated.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”05/30/2021″ team=”yankees”]

Kansas City Royals

The Royals are another slate-leading stack today and they will be lower owned overall than the extremely popular Yankees. The Royals are on the road facing Matt Shoemaker, who has struggled to a 5.30 xFIP and a 1.41 WHIP over his first nine starts this season. Shoemaker is in the 30th percentile of barrel rate allowed, though he has been OK with contact, yielding a 54th percentile hard hit rate. He is in just the fourth percentile of strikeout rate and the seventh percentile of expected slugging percentage allowed, however, so there are clear indicators for more hard-hit balls and significant offense to come. Meanwhile, the Royals just added one of their best players back into the lineup, and the team has just a 23.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Kansas City’s offense has been below average creating runs and hitting for power in the split, but given the slumps of several key hitters with strong track records, there is reason to believe in the return to form. This is a great spot for that trend to begin.

Whit Merrifield is a solid MLB DFS option at just $3,000 on FanDuel, though he costs $5,200 on the DraftKings slate. With eligibility at outfield and second base on both sites, Merrifield brings his solid mix of power and speed to the top of the lineup. This season he has a .247/.315/.368 slash with a .121 ISO and four home runs, but he has buoyed his fantasy point scoring with 14 stolen bases so far on the season. Merrifield has been far better with the hit tool in the past, so we can expect he will be on base more frequently ahead of the premium hitters in this lineup as the season rolls along.

Switch-hitting Carlos Santana is underpriced at $4,100 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel. He has a .250/.384/.452 line and a .202 ISO with 10 home runs on the season. The power upside and on-base skills are extremely appealing with Santana. He is matchup-proof late in games and has power and upside at first base on both sites. Santana is drawing more ownership on DraftKings than on the blue site, but he should be included in stacks across the industry. He had a rough season in 2020 and his popularity has been slow to recover, but this is the same hitter who posted a mammoth 2019 season with 34 home runs and a .234 ISO in 2019.

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Lefty outfielder Andrew Benintendi is another player who brings a blend of mid-range power and speed to the Royals lineup. He has returned to form after struggling and then exiting with an injury in 2020, a season that saw him limited to just 52 plate appearances with the Red Sox. Benintendi has made 188 plate appearances this year, posting a .282/.346/.382 with four home runs and six stolen bases. He is creating runs 6% better than average this season, though he has struggled hitting for power with just a .100 ISO. For just $3,500 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel, Benintendi should not be skipped if he is hitting near the top of the lineup.

Star catcher Salvador Perez is the leading option at his position on most slates. He is the best power bat at catcher in the league. He has 10 home runs in 205 plate appearances this season, posting a .210 ISO and creating runs 18% better than average. He will be popular for the $4,800 on DraftKings, but not so much so that he cannot be rostered, Perez is a highly interesting piece of the puzzle in Royals stacks. At a ludicrously low $2,400 on FanDuel, he will be the team’s most popular player, nearly doubling the ownership of the next-highest option.

Returning to the lineup, switch-hitting Adalberto Mondesi brings star-level talent and strong MLB DFS upside to the shortstop position. Mondesi is still priced down at just $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel. He has made just 19 plate appearances this season, hitting a home run and stealing a base already. Last year in 233 plate appearances, Mondesi hit six long balls and stole 24 bases, elite MLB DFS production.

Third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez hits from the right side of the plate and will be extremely low owned for almost no cost if he is in the lineup. Hitting sixth in the projected version, Gutierrez would have strong value for the minimum price on FanDuel and just $2,700 on DraftKings. Gutierrez has made 45 plate appearances this season, posting a .250/.267/.295 slash and creating runs 45% worse than average. Gutierrez profiles for a bit more power than he has put together in stat lines during his professional career, but overall he is mostly overmatched at the Major League level, in his 136 career plate appearances he has a .246/.294/.317 with a .071 ISO and creates runs 36% worse than average.

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If Jorge Soler takes the field, he has strong upside for power. Soler is strugglingm with just a .178/.257/.314 slash, only four home runs and a .136 ISO in his first 195 plate appearances this year. He had a monster 2019, hitting 48 home runs in his 679 plate appearances, but he hit just eight in 174 tries last year. That mark came with a .215 ISO and a .228/.326/.443 slash while Soler created runs 8% better than average last season, this year he is 41% below average and hurting the team. He is also dealing with a sore groin and could easily sit Sunday out completely. If he does, the Royals could counter with either Nicky Lopez taking second base and Merrifield moving to the outfield, or they may start Jarrod Dyson, who could be a sneaky option for some power and speed upside.

With third base and outfield eligibility on both sites, Hunter Dozier makes an interesting option at only $2,200 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings. He will be owned less than 10.0% of the time by the public, which jibes with his current struggles. Dozier has hit five home runs but owns a .139/.205/.328 slash and has created runs 55% worse than average. He has a .189 ISO, so he is still driving the ball, but the contact skills have been largely absent this season. Dozier is a solid mix-in as a mid-lineup stack endcap, but he is not a functional wraparound option this season. If he returns to form as the player who got on base at a .344 clip last season, he would be more viable.

Outfielder Michael A. Taylor rounds out the projected lineup. He is slashing .248/.304/.376 over his first 161 plate appearances this season and has hit five sneaky home runs while stealing four bases. A player who seems to break more slates than his talent or lineup positioning would ever warrant, Taylor seems in play and viable once again. He costs just $2,200 on FanDuel and is drawing well under 5% projected public popularity. The same is true on DraftKings for the $2,800 investment. Taylor should not be over-rostered, but it is easy enough to exceed the field and get to some additional shares, though there is naturally a risk in dropping a plate appearance for a hitter of this overall caliber.

HR Call: Salvador Perez — Kansas City Royals

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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