MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 5/12/21

Wednesday’s 10-game MLB DFS main slate offers a top-heavy pitching selection, with two premium aces and several strong contenders in good spots from the upper echelons of the salary range on both sites. Getting to a combination of premium starters with money left over for bats is a neat trick on the DraftKings slate, while FanDuel players will have a somewhat easier time of it. With a few weaker arms on the back end of the pitching slate, there should be some targetable bats and home run candidates for use tonight as well, including the Red Sox against a rookie making his debut and the Dodgers against weak Mariners pitching. The slate has some obvious power upside spots as well, so it should be an interesting night for lineup constructions.

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Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home run candidates for Tuesday.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Asdrubal Cabrera — 5.19

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. — 15.39

Boston Red Sox: Franchy Cordero — 21.02

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 11.19

Detroit Tigers: Nomar Mazara — 8.74

Houston Astros: Jose Altuve — 7.01

Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 11.64

Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 9.24

Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Turner — 10.82

Miami Marlins: Corey Dickerson — 6.18

Milwaukee Brewers: Travis Shaw — 10.79

Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 2.28

New York Yankees: Luke Voit — 11.67

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 15.57

Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 10.68

Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager — 5.25

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul DeJong — 6.75

Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows — 11.29

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk — 2.29

Washington Nationals: Kyle Schwarber — 3.41

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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

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MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.


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On the Hill

Today’s pitching slate features two standout options in Gerrit Cole and Brandon Woodruff. They stand several rungs above the other available pitchers, but there are a few strong options below them who should not be ignored on a fairly large slate. With Zac Gallen taking on the mediocre Marlins, Danny Duffy against the terrible Tigers and Julio Urias facing struggling Seattle, there are a few options that can be considered safe in that tier, in addition to some upside plays that could be in more dangerous territory for the matchup. Of the pitchers in more difficult situations, the standout options are Max Fried, Eduardo Rodriguez and Andrew Heaney, who will be taking on the Blue Jays, Athletics and Astros, respectively. Not one of those is an easy lineup to face, but each pitcher will have lower-owned upside in the spot.

There is little arguing with Cole as the slate’s top option. He has struck out 40.2% of the hitters he has faced in his 44 innings over the first seven starts of his season. He has walked only 1.8% of hitters, dazzling opponents and putting up a sparkling 2.10 xFIP and a 0.72 WHIP. Cole’s numbers are in-line with the spectacular season he had in 2019, when he put up a 39.9% strikeout rate to go with a 2.64 xFIP and a 0.89 WHIP over 212 innings for Houston. Meanwhile, the opposing Rays have struck out 24.5% of the time, 10th worst in baseball against right-handed pitching. They have a reasonable team ISO of .157 in the split and have created runs 5% better than average as a unit, so Cole is not entirely without threat. Still, he stands the best chance of posting a dominant start and ranks atop the board on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.

Woodruff is facing a Cardinals lineup that sits 16th with a 23.7% strikeout rate against righties. The Cardinals also have a decent team ISO compared to where the league is against righties this year. As a whole they are at .163 for the season. St. Louis has created runs at a below average 88 WRC+ this season, 12% under par. Woodruff should be able to get through a high number of innings in this one, with not much threat coming back his way. He has an elite 32.5% strikeout rate this season to go with his 2.77 xFIP and 0.77 WHIP. There is sustained success here as well,. had a 31.1% strikeout rate over 73 innings in 2020 and a 29.0% rate in 121 frames in 2019. He has been at or below a 3.29 xFIP across the full sample. Woodruff is a strong second option to Cole on both sites.

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Zack Wheeler is ranked as one of the top starters on the board, but he is the first name who is not drawing appropriate levels of ownership. He has completed 47 innings in his seven starts this season, typically pitching deep into games and putting up reliable numbers. Wheeler has a strong 26.8% strikeout rate this season, a solid jump from the below-average 18.4% he posted in 71 innings last year. He has a 3.21 xFIP and a 0.97 WHIP this year. Wheeler has boosted both his called and swinging strike rate, currently sitting at a 26.3% CSW% that is a return to form and a 12.1% swinging strike rate that represents a new career high. He sits 21st in the league among qualified starters, allowing just a 27.5% hard contact rate so far and 18th, inducing 20.8% soft contact. Wheeler’s groundball rate of 45.7% ranks 28th among qualified starters, and his 0.76 HR/9 this season ranks 21st in baseball. Wheeler is taking on a Nationals squad that limits strikeouts against right-handed pitching this season. Their 22.2% rate currently sits fourth in baseball, though they have a meager .132 team ISO and have created runs 16% worse than average in the split. Wheeler has the talent to overcome the matchup and exploit the more strikeout prone hitters. With the field not getting to him frequently enough, he makes a fine play on both sites.

Oakland Athletics

The Athletics are in Boston to face southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been pitching well this season. Rodriguez has thrown 33 innings over his first six starts, striking out 24.6% of opposing hitters and posting a crisp 3.29 xFIP and 1.18 WHIP. He missed all of 2020 but was somewhat above average in 2019 when he had a 3.86 xFIP and a 1.33 WHIP with a 24.8% strikeout rate over 203 innings. Rodriguez has done well with contact this year. He sits in the 79th percentile of hard contact allowed and 89th percentile in average exit velocity allowed as well as the 89th percentile in walk rate. Still, the Athletics bats have appeal for their general upside as well as their sticker price and current leverage score. As the highest-rated stack that could reasonably be considered a value play, the Athletics are going under-owned by the field on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While it may not be the absolute most likely stack to go off, if it does in this configuration, it will have tournament-winning upside.

Mark Canha provides a steady right-handed bat off the top for just $3,300 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings. He will be Oakland’s most popular hitter on the latter site, given the value pricing, but Canha should not be left out of stacks. He has five home runs in his 159 plate appearances this season, returning to the pace that saw him hit 26 in 497 tries in 2019. Canha has a career .199 ISO against left-handed pitching, with 29 of his 77 home runs coming on this side of splits despite facing 640 fewer times.

Ramon Laureano can be MLB DFS gold on the right night. He has already hit seven home runs and stolen eight bases this season in just 141 plate appearances. He is off to just a .244/.319/.480 start but has a .236 ISO and is creating runs 29% better than average this year. If Laureano were getting on base more frequently, he would be a $5,500 DraftKings player. But given the current rates, he sits at a bargain $4,500 on the site while pulling in just a $3,400 salary on FanDuel. Laureano is a dynamic power/speed option, and this year’s numbers are not out of the blue despite last year’s struggles. In 2019, Laureano made 481 plate appearances. He hit 24 home runs and stole 13 bases, numbers he will easily eclipse this season if he keep to the current pace.

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Matt Olson if off to a fine start to his 2021 campaign. He has hit seven long balls this season, putting up a .268/.352/.518 slash along the way. He has a .250 ISO and has created runs 48% better than average. Olson has dramatically reduced his strikeout rate this season. He is at just 21.1% on the season, down from a gargantuan 31.4% mark in 245 plate appearances last year and a 25.2% in 547 the year prior. Those numbers hold up against same-handed pitching, as does a respectable amount of Olson’s power. For his career, Olson strikes out 25.5% of the time against fellow southpaws and 25.8% against the opposite hand. He has a monster .280 ISO against righties, a number that does drop significantly but only to a still-solid .195. Olson is an option for a home run and MLB DFS points production against any pitcher in the league.

Catcher Sean Murphy is sneaking through at under 10.0% projected public ownership hitting in the middle of the Athletics lineup today at just $4,300 on the DraftKings slate. He packs whopping power when he connects with the ball, and he has hit four home runs in his 109 plate appearances so far. The only issue is the frequency with which Murphy actually makes that contact. He is at just .185/.312/.359 with a .174 ISO for the year so far. Murphy is around his career pace with a 26.6% strikeout rate, but his walk rate has dropped from 17.1% last year to 11.0% this season, which is impacting his on-base percentage, particularly alongside a .220 batting average on balls in play. Murphy has upside beyond what he has shown this season. In 2020 he created runs 32% better than average across his 140 plate appearances. At low ownership and low cost, he makes a strong catcher play.

A much more accomplished hitter mans the hot corner for Oakland and is likely to hit fifth behind Murphy tonight. Matt Chapman hit 36 home runs in his 670 plate appearances in 2019, building on a 2018 that saw him go deep 24 times in 616 plate appearances in his first full season. Still just 28, Chapman simply seems like he has been around longer. He struggled with the “baseball card” stats through last season, putting up a .232/.276/.535 slash but still had a titanic .303 ISO and 10 home runs in his meager 152 plate appearance sample. In almost the same number of opportunities this season (148), Chapman is off to just a .216/.324/.392 start with a .176 ISO and only five home runs, a bad start but also a gap that could be closed rapidly as the hitter gets into his season. There is strong upside in getting to Chapman in Athletics stacks for just $4,800 on DraftKings and a ridiculous $2,800 on FanDuel.

Switch-hitting infielder Jed Lowrie has had a nice start to his late career reclamation in Oakland, having escaped the purgatory that was the Mets bench. Lowrie is out to a .274/.343/.427 start, hitting three home runs in 137 plate appearances. He has created runs 24% better than average, providing steady surprising production from any spot he lands in the lineup. Lowrie is a sensible but unspectacular addition to any Athletics stack on both sites.

Stephen Piscotty has been a shadow of the player who hit 27 home runs in his first season in Oakland back in 2018. He brought promise of upside with him on arrival from St. Louis, after flashing 25-10 potential early in his career with the Cardinals. He peaked in that summer of 2018, however, and has struggled to find his game over the 648 plate appearances that followed from 2019 to today. In basically a full season, Piscotty has hit 21 home runs and stolen seven bases, but he has been well below average creating runs (91 WRC+ this season, 74 last season, 93 in 2019) and has plummeted to a .211/.286/.368 hitter to start the year. Still, there is upside. He has finally returned to full health and regular opportunities, and he costs just $2,300 on the DraftKings slate and $2,400 on FanDuel. Piscotty is not a cross-off at the bottom of Athletics stacks.

Elvis Andrus and Tony Kemp are a pair of hit-tool specialists — Andrus admittedly had more power in several seasons with Texas — with speed who are struggling to get on-base or do anything interesting with their legs to help the team create runs. Kemp is at just .217/.368/.261 with three stolen bases in his 58 plate appearances this season, after going .247/.363/.301 with three steals in 114 tries last year. Andrus is the one suffering from an inability to get on base, sitting at just .161/.205/.212. He has also stolen three bases but has been so bad that his WRC+ is currently sitting at 19. In other words, Andrus has been 81% worse creating runs than the average player. They are at best mix-in options as GPP wrap-around plays.

HR Call: Franchy Cordero — Boston Red Sox

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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