The Wednesday evening of daily fantasy baseball has a loaded 12-game slate. Of all the games, only one appears threatened by weather, with the Brewers – Royals looking at a somewhat significant delay threat. The rest of the slate looks both clean and interesting. For DFS MLB picks for today, there are both premium arms and value pitching available once again. Many of the decision points in salary and upside are similar to the yesterday’s slate. Getting to a good spread of options will be key, but like last night’s DraftKings and FanDuel contests, gamers need to absolutely nail the appropriate stacks.
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Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home run candidates for each team.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
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Home Run Ratings
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Pavin Smith — 4.40
Atlanta Braves: Ozzie Albies — 6.94
Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 4.35
Boston Red Sox: Alex Verdugo — 10.01
Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ — 8.12
Cleveland Indians: Eddie Rosario — 4.22
Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario — 21.07
Houston Astros: Jose Altuve — 9.69
Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler — 2.05
Los Angeles Angels: Taylor Ward — 6.78
Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Beaty — 5.10
Miami Marlins: Corey Dickerson — 5.15
Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich — 5.33
New York Mets: Dominic Smith — 5.47
New York Yankees: Miguel Andujar — 9.04
Oakland Athletics: Ramon Laureano — 5.98
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 6.99
Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco — 5.39
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Lewis — 13.13
St. Louis Cardinals: Harrison Bader — 5.03
Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Brosseau — 8.75
Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 7.14
Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk — 7.54
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 13.43
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
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On the Hill
Wednesday brings several top-end starters in a variety of matchups. Among the top-end options, Jack Flaherty is in probably the best overall spot against the weak Pirates lineup, while Corbin Burnes and Max Scherzer are excellent MLB DFS options in more difficult matchups. Upstart Baltimore starter John Means is looking to continue his stellar run of pitching against a Rays lineup that is prone to striking out and weaker against left-handed pitchers. There are also several interesting value arms in play.
Flaherty is taking on a Pirates lineup that is fourth-best limiting strikeouts against righties this season, with the active roster putting up a 21.8% rate. That is where the positives end for the woeful Pirates offense. They have a team ISO of just .122, which is second worst in baseball. They have hit an also-second-worst 20 home runs and created runs 12% worse than average in the split. Meanwhile, Flaherty has put up a respectable 25.7% strikeout rate and a 3.83 xFIP with just a 0.95 WHIP in 47.1 innings over eight starts. Flaherty is typically reliable to work deep into his outings, adding to the appeal against a team that is unlikely to offer much resistance. He can make up a few additional strikeouts by adding batters faced, making up for the differential created by the Pirates’ stinginess swinging and missing in the split. Flaherty is both pricey and popular on both sites tonight, but he is still a strong consideration as one of the better upside spots and some reliable good chalk to roster for safety in all formats.
Burnes currently sits atop the Top Pitchers Tool, which is to be expected for a righty with a 45.3% strikeout rate in his 34.1 innings this season. Burnes has been nothing short of dazzling in 2021. He has a 1.25 xFIP and a 0.64 WHIP in six starts, following up a 2020 that saw him put up a 36.7% strikeout rate and a 2.99 xFIP with a 1.02 WHIP. He is showing significant growth this year, leaping from 14.5% swinging strikes to 19.1% while also increasing his called strikes, taking his CSW from 30.5% to a whopping 37.7%. Burnes is elite and he is facing a Royals lineup that is at or below league average. Kansas City’s active roster has a 23.0% strikeout rate with a .149 team ISO in the split this season. They create runs 8% worse than the average offense and have hit 30 home runs in the split, which ties them for 20th out of baseball’s 30 teams in the split this season. Burnes has an excellent shot at upside again tonight, but he is not safe given the weather in Kansas City. With an appropriate amount of the field projected to be on the play, it makes sense to keep at least one eye on weather and plan for contingencies where rostering Burnes.
Scherzer can be rostered against any team. The only question mark with Scherzer is based on salary and ownership. With Scherzer trending for more ownership than his probability of being the top starter on FanDuel or one of the top two on DraftKings, he is a decision point for roster constructions given the hefty price tags on both sites. He has put up a steady 35.8% strikeout rate and a 2.98 xFIP with a 0.76 WHIP this season, completing 51.1 frames in his eight starts. Scherzer has boosted his CSW from 29.6% last year to 32.6% this year and his swinging strikes up to 15.9% from 14.7% last year, but he still trails his 2018 and 2019 numbers slightly. Scherzer has failed to complete six innings just twice in his eight tries, meaning rostering him guarantees one of baseball’s best pitchers going reliably deep into a game. The matchup against the Cubs is not a cakewalk given the quality in the middle of their lineup, but the team is striking out at a 25.9% clip against righties this season, ranking them seventh worst in baseball in the split. They have a .166 team ISO and have created runs 3% worse than average against right-handed pitching in 2021. The Cubs will also be without Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez tonight. There is upside available, but roster construction will be a challenge when including Scherzer.
Means is striking out 28.0% of hitters this season and he has a respectable 3.56 xFIP with a sparkling 0.71 WHIP. As highlighted in this space recently, Means has benefitted tremendously from just a .182 batting average on balls in play against this season. He was spectacular in the 12 strikeout no hitter two turns ago but came back to earth over six frames of six-hit three strikeout ball against the Mets his last time out, though he managed to not yield a run. Means has all the appearances of a pitcher who has gotten lucky while tinkering with his repertoire. This season, Means is throwing his fastball at an average velocity of 92.6 mph and his changeup at 83.0 mph; last season those marks were 93.8 and 84.9 mph. Despite the decrease in velocity, there is an increased differential velocity between the two pitches, which helps support the leap in the southpaw’s swinging strike rate this season. So far, that number is 15.4%, which is a big spike from the 12.5% Means posted last year and the 9.9% in 2019. He has always had talent, particularly in his well-regarded changeup, but it is still difficult to fully trust. Means is expensive and appropriately – though relatively low – owned on the FanDuel slate, where he seems like a good contender for mix and match shares. On DraftKings, Means costs slightly less than some of the other premium arms, and the field is not getting to him enough. This makes him an appealing SP2 option in spend-up lineups. He is not cheap at $9,400, but he could create unique constructions when paired with another upper-middle or ace level starter. Means is taking on a Rays lineup that has been second worst in baseball against lefties this season, striking out an atrocious 31.9% of the time. This is a potentially good spot for him to flash upside once again.
For those not against the idea of throwing some GPP darts, Royals starter Brad Keller costs just $5,500 and could be in a rare spot to pick up a few additional strikeouts. Keller is facing the Brewers, a team that has struck out 26.1% of the time against righties this season, tying them for fifth worst in baseball. While they did just return superstar Christian Yelich to the lineup, the Brewers have simply been awful creating runs in the split this year, with an anemic 79 WRC+ (21% below average). Milwaukee has hit 34 home runs in the split, which ties for 10th best in baseball, but they have a team ISO of just .142, which ties for 24th out of 30 teams. Keller has been bad this season. This is absolutely a gamble and you had better spend your money on the best available bats to go with it when you take it. He has historically been excellent at limiting home runs against, allowing just 15 in 165.1 innings in 2019 and seven in 140.1 the year before as a rookie. Keller gave up just two long balls in his 54.2 innings last season, but he struck out just 16.1% of hitters while inducing only 8.4% swinging strikes. This season, Keller has struggled to find that form, allowing five home runs in just 33.1 innings so far. He has an ugly 4.77 xFIP to start the season, though he has suffered from significant bad luck with opposing hitters compiling a .373 BABIP against so far. Contrary to popular opinion, he is not incapable of striking hitters out. He struck out seven White Sox in his last turn and six of the same lineup the time before that. Keller’s strikeout rate is up overall, though it falls below average overall at just 17.8%, and he is inducing 10.1% swinging strikes this season, a nice improvement if sustained along with his slightly improved fastball velocity. This is in no way a play for the faint of heart. It is unlikely to connect but Keller is my preferred option among the bargain basement pitchers on DraftKings.
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Detroit Tigers
Speaking of longshot plays, the Tigers are drawing uncomfortably high power marks in my personal home run model. Detroit is in a matchup with Mariners rookie Logan Gilbert, who is a high-caliber prospect in their organization. He has made one start this year, striking out five Cleveland Indians while yielding four runs on five hits, two of them home runs. Gilbert throws a basic three pitch fastball-slider-curveball combination with the four-seamer averaging 94.7 mph in the small sample. Indians hitters got to both the fastball and the slider with a .530 and .599 xSLG in that game, contributing to the power indicators against. Scanning the Top Stacks tool, the Tigers do not appear in the top half of the board, and they are still drawing more ownership than they should be on DraftKings given the value requirements of roster construction on that site tonight. Detroit appears slightly better on FanDuel, in that they are trending to be under-owned for even their low probability of being the top stack. Detroit is simply a bit more on the board than they usually are for me today given the power indicators and the rookie starter on the mound in opposition. This is not one to over-roster, but there is an outside chance the Tigers could be friskier than expected tonight, which is sometimes enough for GPP upside.
Switch-hitting outfielder Robbie Grossman is off to a .238/.376/.399 start to his season, hitting four home runs and adding seven stolen bases in his 178 plate appearances. The on-base percentage is an asset in the leadoff spot, Grossman can use his speed and stolen base acumen to swipe some additional MLB DFS points any time he is on, and he will be there ahead of the Tigers power bats. Grossman is cheap at $3,700 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel and he will be under 5% owned.
Second baseman Jonathan Schoop has been a bit of a letdown, hitting just three home runs in his first 154 plate appearances after knocking eight out of the park in just 177 opportunities last year. Schoop has been a quality power bat at second base for years, but his price is down across the industry, coming in at just $2,600 on FanDuel and $2,800 on DraftKings with little ownership. Schoop is an interesting piece at those values, and he should be included in most Tigers constructions, ignoring the ugly .221/.253/.317 start with an .097 ISO and relying more on the history.
Jeimer Candelario is carrying one of the team’s better home run marks on the slate and he fits in at both first and third base on FanDuel for only $2,700. He is a $3,600 third baseman on the DraftKings slate, he is one of the more highly owned individual Tigers bats, though that puts him at under 7% in the afternoon update. This is an easy team with which to build contrarian middle-of-the-lineup stacks. Candelario has a .291/.367/.419 slash to start the season, creating runs 23% better than average in his 166 plate appearances. This is one of the top bats in the weak Tigers lineup. He should not be skipped when using this team.
Aging future first ballot Hall of Famer, Miguel Cabrera, can still turn on the infrequent fastball, though his performance to date in 2021 is beginning to stretch the credulity of that remark. Cabrera has a .184/.273/.255 slash to start the season, hitting just two home runs in 110 plate appearances and posting a .071 ISO. He has created runs 47% worse than average this season, which is less than ideal for a cleanup hitter.
Lefty Nomar Mazara is affordable at just $2,400 on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel, salaries that allow gamers to roster anybody alongside the Tigers on this slate. Mazara was brought to Detroit to hit home runs. He has just two this year but has missed time with injuries, managing just 71 plate appearances so far. Mazara has created runs 31% worse than average this year, largely disappointing Tigers fans who expected the player who hit 20 home runs for three straight seasons from 2016-2018 and 19 home runs in 2019.
Eric Haase will be under 5% owned as a $2,900 catcher on DraftKings. He should be hitting near the middle of the order for the Tigers, putting him in a good spot to create offense if this stack connects. Haase has a .300/.300/.700 with a .400 ISO because he has made just 20 plate appearances this season. He has never seen significant time in the Show, getting just 73 plate appearances so far in his career. Haase has hit three home runs (two of them just last night) and struck out 37.0% of the time in the sample, putting up a .174/.205/.333 overall. Still, this is a hitter who blasted 28 AAA home runs in 401 plate appearances in 2019 and 20 in 477 tries in AAA in 2018, both in the Cleveland system. Haase could be a sneaky upside play for power on this slate. Getting him as a low-owned catcher where one is required could be a plus-play.
Eligible at second and third base on DraftKings, and just second base on FanDuel, Harold Castro is a lefty bat who has been productive in small samples from the start of last season to today. Castro has made 70 plate appearances this year, going .323/.362/.338 in the sample, though he has hit no home runs and has just a .015 ISO. Last year, Castro saw 54 plate appearances and went .347/.407/.427 but again failed to hit a home run and had a .082 ISO. He did manage five home runs, albeit in 369 tries, in 2019. Castro has limited late-lineup appeal at no cost and no ownership.
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Former star Wilson Ramos is another sneaky catcher option from the projected Tigers lineup. Ramos struggled with the Mets and has been off to a weak start with his hit tool and on-base skills in Detroit, though there has been power available. Ramos has hit six home runs in his 112 plate appearances this year, putting up a .219 ISO but creating runs 17% worse than average. He has just a .210/.245/.429 slash and needs to make big improvements in his on-base number. Ramos has struck out just 21.4% of the time and walked only 4.5%. He is struggling with a .213 batting average on balls in play this year and could have upside that is not apparent to those just looking at the batting average and on-base.
Akil Baddoo cooled rapidly after a hot start. He sits at .222/.287/.478 after his first 101 plate appearances, though his .256 ISO is still excellent, and he has created runs 6% better than average so far. Baddoo has hit four home runs and has a bit of sneaky upside appeal at the end of the lineup. He makes a better cheap low-owned endcap to mid-lineup stacks than he does a wraparound given the sub-.300 on-base percentage.
HR Call: Nomar Mazara — Detroit Tigers
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.
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