Despite a solid nine-game Wednesday slate MLB DFS gamers have far fewer strong pitching options to work with on hump day. The slate is stratified with two premium aces, two quality starters from the mid-range and not much else for reliability. Typically this would suggest a day of major upside for bats, but pitching has been simply dominant throughout the season, making at least a few of the middling options on the slate worth consideration today. Several starters remain seriously targetable, so lineups will not be lacking for high-end bats. MLB DFS picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel will come together in interesting ways today, and it should be a good time for building to unique constructions.
***Get a SNEAK PEEK with our free premium data, tools and content of the day, the Awesemo Premium MLB DFS Main Slate Ownership Projections.***
Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home-run candidates for each team.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free baseball picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte — 5.52
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 7.12
Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts — 10.29
Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Naquin — 12.02
Cleveland Indians: Eddie Rosario — 5.90
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon — 8.12
Detroit Tigers: Nomar Mazara — 10.59
Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker — 8.01
Kansas City Royals: Whit Merrifield — 5.61
Los Angeles Dodgers: Albert Pujols — 8.30
Milwaukee Brewers: Kolten Wong — 5.59
New York Mets: James McCann — 2.73
New York Yankees: Gary Sanchez — 12.22
San Diego Padres: Trent Grisham — 13.09
San Francisco Giants: Brandon Crawford — 6.16
Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 11.10
Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk — 12.63
Washington Nationals: Trea Turner — 5.93
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Mariners Bats (April 25)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 25)
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Manny Machado (April 25 Main Slate)
- MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
- Stokastic’s NEW MLB Package: Use What Our Pros Are Using to Win Big
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The two most obvious names on the board sit atop the list on the Top Pitchers Tool today; both Tyler Glasnow and Trevor Bauer are unquestioned aces who can be rostered in all situations. The list of viable pitchers runs thin rapidly, however, as there are flawed names such as German Marquez, Mike Minor and Chris Paddack. There are few pure upside spots from low-cost options, though Cleveland’s Triston McKenzie is in an intriguing spot taking on the Tigers at a minimal investment on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Glasnow stands alone at the top of the starters board on both sites. He and Bauer could arguably be considered neck-and-neck in the talent race, but the matchups comparison leans strongly in Glasnow’s favor. He will be taking on a Royals team that sits seventh-best in baseball with just a 23.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Their team ISO of .150 and the 34 home runs that they have hit in the split so far both rank in the middle of the league, while the active roster has created runs nine percent worse than average against righties this year. Meanwhile, Glasnow is not just any other righty. He has a 36.0% strikeout rate and a 2.87 xFIP with a 0.97 WHIP over 62.0 innings to start 2021. That follows the 38.2% strikeouts he posted in 57.1 innings in 2020. Glasnow is a reliable ace and while he is not in an extreme strikeout spot. His talent is likely to keep the Royals weak offense suppressed, and he could certainly pick up a few extra strikeouts compared to the average. Glasnow’s only downside is that he will be extremely popular on both sites. The FanDuel slate in particular is seeing him approach somewhat uncomfortable levels of public exposure compared to his probability of being the best starter.
Bauer is in a more difficult spot, facing the Houston Astros. The team strikes out at just an 18.9% rate so far against right-handed pitching, leading the league by nearly two full percentage points. They are a lineup loaded from top to bottom with professional hitters, though the power has been slightly down so far. The Astros have a collective .155 ISO and just 29 home runs against right-handed pitching this year, but the active roster still creates runs 10.0% better than average in the split. Houston has a strong propensity for getting on base and putting balls in play. Still, Bauer is one of MLB DFS’ apex predator pitchers. He has an elite 36.2% strikeout rate and has completed 63.2 innings over his first 10 starts, providing reliable depth while putting up a strong 3.12 xFIP and a 0.77 WHIP. Bauer is not in an easy spot by any means, but this has his ownership down across the industry, making it an appealing spot.
McKenzie is in an interesting spot. A tale of extremes, he has a 30.6% strikeout rate over his first 31.1 innings this year, an excellent mark for any pitcher and stellar for one with his brief resume. However, McKenzie has also walked 20.8% of hitters he has faced this season, leading to a bumpy 1.69 WHIP and a 5.54 xFIP. He has major talent in his arm and clear upside. In his 33.1 innings over six starts in 2020, McKenzie posted a 33.1% strikeout rate, just a 7.1% walk rate, a 3.60 xFIP and 0.90 WHIP. There is plenty of reason to buy into the talent, particularly facing a Tigers team that sits second-worst in baseball with a 27.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and a .144 ISO in the split. Detroit has hit 37 home runs, which is in the middle of the league, but all told they create runs 10.0% worse than average and are a highly targetable team with premium pitchers. McKenzie falls short of that label at this point in his development, but he could have sneaky upside for GPPs tonight, nonetheless.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have been one of baseball’s best offenses to start the season, and they have been live for MLB DFS purposes on slate after slate. Cincinnati has been thumping pitching on both sides of the plate all year long and that trend appears likely to continue tonight. Cincinnati is facing Nationals starter Joe Ross, who can have flashes of brilliance but is far more frequently at or below the league average. This year, Ross has barely sniffed league average. He has a 20.5% strikeout rate and a 4.90 xFIP on the season, with a 1.47 WHIP. Ross sits in just the 40th percentile in hard hit rate allowed and the 21st percentile in barrel rate allowed. This is a vulnerable starter allowing teams to get bat-on-ball in positive ways, which walks right into the Reds’ strengths.
The most popular Reds hitter on both DraftKings and FanDuel will be Eugenio Suarez, who will be leading off for the team. Suarez is underpriced for his talent at $4,300 and $2,600, respectively; the discount is more extreme on the blue site. Suarez is off to a sluggish .148/.228/.343 start but has nine home runs in his 189 plate appearances. He has a .195 ISO on the season but has created runs 46% worse than average with the slow start. With major upside for a home run and multi-position eligibility on FanDuel, Suarez makes sense as a popular option. It is difficult to work him into stacks, but he should not be skipped frequently despite the popularity. As a one-off, Suarez lacks appeal given the nearly 30.0% public ownership.
Jesse Winker has hit everything hard this year. He has 13 home runs in his 174 plate appearances, putting up a titanic .321 ISO and creating runs 86% better than average this season. Winker has a .346/.402/.667 triple-slash and has been among the league leaders in runs score throughout the year. When he is not clearing the bases with a home run, Winker is likely occupying them for others to drive in. He is expensive and popular on FanDuel, but just expensive on DraftKings where he gains appeal at under 10.0% projected public popularity.
Nicholas Castellanos is having a similar scorching hot start to his 2021 campaign. Hitting from the right side of the plate, Castellanos follows Winker and creates nightmare matchup scenarios for opposing pitching late in the game. He has 12 home runs in just 184 plate appearances, going .359/.418/.671 on the young season. He has a .311 ISO and has created runs a whopping 91% better than average so far. With his price up as well, Castellanos will be less popular than Winker. They should frequently be rostered as a duo as MLB DFS gamers build team stacks.
Unexpected production has been the name of the game for Tyler Naquin this season. He has hit 10 home runs in just 152 plate appearances; this following a season in which he hit only four long balls in 141 tries. Naquin is out to a .254/.336/.515 start with a .261 ISO. He has created runs 21.0% better than average for the season, but the field is yet to truly catch up. Naquin costs just $2,900 on the FanDuel slate but is under 10.0% popularity, while he will be lower owned against a higher salary across town.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”05/26/2021″ team=”reds”]
Tyler Stephenson can provide some sneaky pop on the right slate. He has made just 97 plate appearances this year and is carrying a .276/.351/.391 slash while hitting two home runs. Even in the small sample, Stephenson has created runs better than average, landing 6% ahead of the curve. Stephenson has long been projected for strong raw power, but it has yet to fully translate into games. His highwater mark for home runs in the minors came in 2018 in high-A when he knocked 11 over the fence in 450 plate appearances. Given the potential for upside, the lack of popularity and the catcher eligibility on DraftKings, Stephenson is very much in play as a mix-in for Reds stacks.
Switch-hitting catcher Tucker Barnhart is at .277/.354/.438 this season, though he has made just 127 plate appearances. He hit five home runs in 110 plate appearances last year and can sometimes provide sneaky MLB DFS upside. Barnhart is unpopular and costs just $2,200 on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he is listed for $4,300 but is pulling similarly low ownership, making him an interesting play where catchers are required.
Kyle Farmer is at a weak .219/.299/.316 to start this season, though he has hit three home runs in just 127 plate appearances after not managing any in 70 tries last year. Farmer has multi-position eligibility between second base and shortstop, and he costs the flat minimum of $2,000 on FanDuel and just $2,600 on DraftKings, which keeps him in play on both sites. Farmer is not to be over-rostered, but he can be mixed into Reds stacks to offset cost and ownership.
Another low-cost, low-owned infielder from the bottom of the barrel, Jonathan India has hit for a .133 ISO and created runs 14% worse than average this season. As a differentiation piece, he barely cracks through “fine” and is not a strong target for extreme upside as anything other than a mix and match from this part of the batting order.
HR Call: Rougned Odor — New York Yankees
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[MLBPAGE]
