The massive Tuesday slate has the entire league in action and some juicy prize pools and excellent GPP offerings across the MLB DFS industry. There is just one premium ace among the 30 pitching options, and he is less than reliable from a historical perspective. While several of the available starters are their team’s best option, by and large this is a group of pitchers that would at best be the second starter in a good rotation, while the majority would be third or worse. There are several extreme run totals on the board and a few interesting spots for power and run creation. If there were ever a slate on which to spread out entries to cast the widest net over potential outcomes, this is the one. The Top Pitchers and Top Stacks tools are invaluable on a slate like this, but it is also important to investigate the individual projected ownership on players when making lineup decisions.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker — 5.66
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 6.35
Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle — 5.28
Boston Red Sox: Hunter Renfroe — 15.12
Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 12.61
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 6.47
Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez — 14.35
Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes — 10.67
Colorado Rockies: Brendan Rodgers — 7.08
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 9.49
Houston Astros: Jose Altuve — 5.67
Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler — 9.33
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani — 11.13
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 5.64
Miami Marlins: Adam Duvall — 4.73
Milwaukee Brewers: Willy Adames — 6.51
Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 12.83
New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 5.17
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 12.39
Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 16.91
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 10.97
Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes — 6.35
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 11.98
San Francisco Giants: Darin Ruf — 6.56
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager — 4.43
St. Louis Cardinals: Paul DeJong — 5.81
Tampa Bay Rays: Nelson Cruz — 10.40
Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 16.65
Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez — 9.36
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 15.41
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
With 30 MLB DFS pitchers available, one would expect a better selection of options than what the Tuesday slate brings to the table. There are a number of good but not great pitchers, as well as Robbie Ray, who lands atop the board in the Top Pitchers tool for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Lance McCullers stands in a strong position on both talent and matchup, while a few aging former aces are among the slate’s secondary options, including Charlie Morton, Kenta Maeda and Adam Wainwright. A few of the slate’s younger arms are in play as well, though they will be challenged by opposing offenses. Julio Urias is in a challenging spot against the Giants, Dylan Cease draws the Royals, Adbert Alzolay faces the Reds and struggling Chris Paddack has the Athletics on deck. Miami’s Sandy Alcantara lands in the mid-range by price and probability of success and is potentially under-owned in his game against the Orioles, though the hitting environment will be a challenge.
The Blue Jays are in Boston with their nominal ace on the hill. Ray has been sharp through most of the season, pitching to a 3.27 xFIP and a 1.06 WHIP while striking out 31.3% of hitters and walking just 6.2%, a major step up in his ability to limit the free pass. Ray has always been an excellent strikeout option, but he would too frequently get into trouble by allowing extra base runners then yielding premium contact. The latter problem has not gone away, it has simply been limited in how much trouble it has gotten the southpaw into this season. Ray allows a 10.3% barrel rate and a whopping 46.8% hard-hit rate with a 91.3 mph average exit velocity and a 15.2-degree launch angle, if you were drawing a home run profile from scratch, that is the type of contact you are seeking. The opposing Red Sox stand 4% above average by WRC+ in the split, they have an above-average 3.83% home run rate and a .178 team ISO. Ray is the highest upside pitcher available, but there are clear indicators – as always – of the threat that he could implode on any given slate. He is going under-owned for his probability of success, but there is also a plethora of options to which one can turn on this slate.
McCullers is priced like an ace for his contest against the weak Mariners offense. Seattle just burnt the field on a heavily owned Astros pitcher last night, but there is no reason to be gun shy about going right back to this spot tonight, given the salary to spend. McCullers has thrown 91.2 innings in 16 starts this season and has provided reliable depth of late. He has a 27.8% strikeout rate and a 3.77 xFIP with a 1.20 WHIP. The latter mark is inflated by his atrocious 11.7% walk rate, but McCullers’ ability to induce swinging strikes at an 11.6% rate and generate a 31.2% CSW keeps him afloat and out of trouble when he is on. He allows too much premium contact, coming in with a 43.2% hard-hit rate and a 90.8 mph average exit velocity, though he has done well keeping barrels to just 5.7%, a worse mark in that category would be deadly given the extreme walk rate. McCullers gains from facing a Mariners lineup that is tied for third worst in baseball with a 25.7% strikeout rate against righties. The team has an average 3.61% home run rate in the split, but they are well behind the curve with a .157 ISO and a WRC+ 9% below average. McCullers should have a good chance at loading up strikeouts while targeting both a win and a quality start.
Charlie Morton projects well on both the site’s data and in my personal model, but he is pulling a massive ownership share for such a large slate on FanDuel. The reason for this is largely Morton’s discounted $8,600 salary, which is pushing him up to around 20% ownership on the slate, despite only around a 5% probability of being the top pitcher when the night is done. On DraftKings, Morton is owned more than his probability of landing in the top two, but not to a concerning-degree. On FanDuel he is simply overly popular. He has pitched well this season, putting together a 28% strikeout rate and a 3.45 xFIP with a 1.14 WHIP and a 12.5% induced swinging strike rate. He has allowed just a 5% barrel rate with a solid 34.8% hard-hit rate and an 88.4 mph average exit velocity. Morton allows just a 7.4-degree average launch angle, helping him keep the ball in the yard. He draws a Mets lineup that has underperformed against righties despite a number of premium left-handed hitters. New York has a 23.7% strikeout rate in the split, landing them in the middle of the league. The Mets offense has just a .144 collective ISO with a 3.31% home run rate against righties this season, and they have created runs 7% behind the curve. There is reason to believe that Morton will have a strong start here, but on a slate of this size it simply does not make sense to walk hand in hand with as much negative leverage as his public ownership is creating on the blue site. If ownership projections crash heading into lock, Morton becomes a more interesting play. On DraftKings he is viable where he can be afforded, particularly if it is in a double pay-up build where he is the SP2.
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Adam Wainwright has been solid all season for the Cardinals. He has a 22.7% strikeout rate over 118.2 innings in 19 starts, providing steady production and reliable depth. He is walking just 6.5% of hitters and has a 3.83 xFIP with a 1.13 WHIP, though he induces a mere 8.1% swinging strikes, Wainwright is pinpoint and manages to still compile a 30.5% CSW. He has yielded a 7.1% barrel rate and a 38.2% hard-hit rate on the season but has stayed largely out of significant trouble and has delivered a few upside scores for MLB DFS purposes. The opposing Cleveland lineup has several extreme strikeout bats baked into it these days. Cleveland will be fielding a lineup with at least four hitters who are striking out more than 30% of the time this season. Cleveland’s home run rate is 4.02% against righties and they have an above average .174 collective ISO. Still, Wainwright offers relative safety and quality, with a path to significant strikeout upside if all goes well. He is another strong under-owned option from near the top of the board on both sites.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox were featured in this space yesterday, with the return of slugger Eloy Jimenez, and they profile as one of the top stack options on the board again this evening. Chicago is taking on Brad Keller, who was formerly a pitcher who it was inadvisable to attack for MLB DFS production. Keller went from a pitcher who excelled at inducing ground balls and limiting power against to a targetable righty who allows a 9.7% barrel rate and a 44.2% hard-hit rate, with a 10.5% walk rate, creating an opportunity for run creation and sequential hitting. Keller has a 4.58 xFIP and a 1.72 WHIP and strikes out a mere 18.7% of opposing hitters this year. Getting to stacks that include combinations of Jimenez, Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Brian Goodwin and Andrew Vaughn should be the focus, while options like Gavin Sheets, Leury Garcia and Zack Collins are productive enough to fill in around the edges and provide salary and popularity offsets.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays continue their series in Boston, taking on struggling veteran Garret Richards. Richards has a 4.77 xFIP and a 1.63 WHIP with just a 17.6% strikeout rate and a 9.9% walk rate over his 97.1 innings this season. He has allowed an 8.5% barrel rate and is one of the more targetable pitchers on the slate for sequential hitting and run creation. Richards yields a monstrous 49.7% hard-hit rate, 91.8 mph average exit velocity, 9.8-degree average launch angle and 3.16% home run rate. The Toronto bats are pricey and somewhat popular, but they still have slightly positive leverage and are in an excellent spot. The names run from one through eight at least, with the top of the lineup making up the premium selections with George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez. There is major quality on the back end of the lineup, simply stacking five through eight would yield a playable stack that adds Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Cavan Biggio. Even catcher Reese McGuire is highly playable where the position is required, though he makes less sense where it is not.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals will back up Wainwright with some offense in a game against Cal Quantrill. He has thrown 72.2 innings and made 10 starts this season. He has just a 15.9% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate and has compiled a 3.84 ERA but a 5.33 xERA and a 4.87 xFIP that suggest the pitcher has largely benefitted from luck this season. He allows a 7.3% barrel rate and an 11.1-degree average launch angle with a 37.3% hard-hit rate and an 88.3 mph average exit velocity. As a starter, Quantrill has just a 14.5% strikeout rate and a 5.12 xFIP on the season. The Cardinals have not been great against right-handed pitching this season, most of their premium bats hit from the right side of the plate and the team has compiled a below average .154 ISO in the split this season. The Cardinals have a 3.40% home run rate in the split and create runs 11% worse than average but strike out just 22.2% of the time. With as many balls in play as the numbers would suggest, there should be upside for run creation for St. Louis at a minimum, and they are unpopular on both sites.
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Paul Goldschmidt is priced up to $5,300 on the DraftKings slate but lands at an affordable $3,600 on the blue site. Goldschmidt is up to 17 home runs this season, though he still has just a .185 ISO which shows the decline in extra base production overall. He is slashing .270/.340/.455 and creating runs 19% ahead of the average, at under 3% ownership across the industry he makes for a premium play in this matchup. Goldschmidt has a massive 94th-percentile .543 expected slugging percentage that truly shows the-degree to which his lack of extra base production has been off, and he barrels the ball 12.1% of the time, good for an 80th percentile ranking. This is an excellent hitter deserving of a spot in most, if not all, Cardinals stacks.
Nolan Arenado is slashing .261/.314/.504 with a .243 ISO and 20 home runs in 408 plate appearances this season. He has created runs 18% better than average by WRC+ in his first year in St. Louis, arguably underperforming expectations in a “for him” sense but delivering solid quality for MLB DFS purposes. He costs $5,200 on DraftKings and is the most expensive Cardinals bat at $3,900 on FanDuel. With limited popularity across the board, Arenado is another solid hitter to include in any stack from this team.
Tyler O’Neill costs just $3,200 on FanDuel and is at a stunning $3,300 on DraftKings, making him an extremely affordable and interesting option on the site. O’Neill has made just 296 plate appearances and has 17 home runs with a .252 ISO. He is slashing a robust .274/.331/.526 on the season while creating runs 31% better than average. His massive 54.9% hard-hit rate is a 97th percentile mark, his 98th percentile expected slugging percentage stands at a titanic .606, showing he has actually underperformed for power, while his 18.7% barrel rate and 93.2 mph average exit velocity are 97th and 95th percentile, respectively. O’Neill will approach 10% ownership for the misprice on DraftKings but is still highly playable. He is the most popular Cardinals bat for the discount on the FanDuel slate, though that is just a 2.7% ownership mark.
Yadier Molina is slashing .250/.295/.390 over his 292 plate appearances this season and has compiled a .140 ISO while creating runs 13% behind the average. Molina would be better served from a later spot in the lineup, yielding this one to the next featured hitter instead, but he is playable from anywhere, particularly when catchers are a requirement.
Paul DeJong has made just 267 plate appearances this season and he has hit 13 home runs with a .186 ISO, though he is creating runs 9% behind the league average by WRC+. He is at a 24.3% rate on the season and is slashing just .203/.296/.390, making him an all-or-nothing play that is fitting for GPP upside when he is owned at less than 2% on both sides of town.
Matt Carpenter is in the No. 7 spot in the projected Cardinals lineup. He has not been that player in quite a while now. This season, Carpenter is slashing .188/.315/.315 in his 178 plate appearances. He has hit three home runs and has a .128 ISO while creating runs 19% worse than average. There are better options available in many lineups at his position, but Carpenter does provide a major help with salary, coming in at just $2,200 on DraftKings and $2,000 on FanDuel. He is not a quality option, but the salary helps and he could produce enough in the right situation if this lineup connects as the top stack.
Tommy Edman has hit six home runs and stolen 17 bases this season, though his .256/.302/.373 triple-slash leaves something to be desired in the hit tool and on-base department. Edman would help the team more by focusing on getting to first base and using his legs, but he is excellent at putting the ball in play, given just a 12.8% strikeout rate. If Edman were to improve on his 5.5% walk rate he would become a major asset for run creation in this offense. As it stands, he is a playable late lineup bat for MLB DFS purposes, and he is underpriced at $2,900 on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKings.
Harrison Bader is slashing .289/.368/.507 with eight home runs in just 159 plate appearances this season and would be another good candidate for a bump several spots higher in this lineup. Bader has a .218 ISO and has created runs 29% better than average. If he lands in the No. 9, Bader makes a prime candidate for a low-owned wraparound play with upside, considering the individual power and on-base potential.
HR Call: Jesse Winker — Cincinnati Reds
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