MLB DFS Picks, Ownership, HR Projections & Top Stacks for DraftKings + FanDuel

The five-game Thursday fantasy baseball slate offers up very few reliable pitching options among its 10 selections. The field will largely flock to the most talented starters available, creating a significant ownership bubble and some leverage opportunities, though the two best pitchers on the board happen to be facing the two worst teams in the league. There are more robust options for bats. Several team stacks look to be in excellent hitting situations and a few are going under-owned for their upside. Getting to a broad spread of unique constructions on a slate like this is difficult but paramount. There is more room for alternate constructions and MLB DFS stacks today on a five-game slate, though playing at least one full stack in a lineup is always the go-to approach. Let’s break down some of the best MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups today.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.

Home Run Ratings

Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 10.67

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 15.31

Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 7.66

Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 11.41

Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton — 10.47

Milwaukee Brewers: Avisail Garcia — 7.28

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 14.91

Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes — 4.73

San Diego Padres: Tommy Pham — 7.38

Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 12.92

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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The slate is topped by two obvious names, Freddy Peralta has been the best pitcher not named Jacob deGrom this season, and he is facing a weak Pirates lineup, while Joe Musgrove has bounced around for quality and is fairly priced in an excellent spot against the Rockies. Eduardo Rodriguez is probably the next most-talented starter, but he will be severely challenged by both the Blue Jays lineup and another day of potentially bad weather. The slate also includes Frankie Montas and Dylan Bundy, both of whom can flash quality and will be dueling one another.

Peralta’s dominance this season cannot be understated. The righty has thrown 102 innings in 18 starts, posting a 35% strikeout rate and a 3.71 xFIP with a 0.89 WHIP despite his ugly 11.5% walk rate. Peralta induces a 14.5% swinging-strike rate with a 31% CSW% and has allowed a 6.2% barreled-ball rate, while limiting hard contact to just 33.5%. The righty’s .263 expected slugging percentage against sits in the 96th percentile. If you aren’t aware by now that the Pirates’ lone skill is avoiding strikeouts, welcome to your first time reading this column. Pittsburgh is fourth-best in baseball with a 21.9% strikeout rate in the split, but it is notably bad in every other aspect. The Pirates have a .140 collective ISO and a lowly 2.98% home run rate in the split, creating runs 15% worse than average by collective WRC+. Peralta is able to generate strikeouts where others do not, he is a spectacular option and easily the most likely pitcher to deliver a mandatory MLB DFS score this evening. For just $9,700 on FanDuel and $10,000 on DraftKings he should be in a significant amount of lineups.

Pitching at home in San Diego give Joe Musgrove an additional bump in his matchup against the miserable Rockies offense. Colorado has a 23.2% strikeout rate against righties that lands 12th best in baseball but they lack power and run creation skills on a ridiculous level. The Rockies have a .143 collective ISO and a 2.67% home run rate in the split and they are by far baseball’s worst team creating runs against righties with a collective WRC+ 29% below average. Musgrove has not been the spectacular version of himself that he was earlier in the year, he has been largely mediocre since baseball’s crackdown, though it is difficult to trace that directly to his mostly unimpacted spin rate. The righty has been less efficient through July, walking more and striking out fewer, but he has shown signs of coming around. Overall, Musgrove is at a 27.4% strikeout rate with a 6.2% walk rate in 109.1 innings in 19 starts this year. He has a 3.47 xFIP with a 1.01 WHIP and induces a steady 12.4% swinging-strike rate with a 31% CSW%. He has been solid with contact metrics, keeping barreled balls at a respectable 6.3% with a 36% hard-hit rate and 87.7 mph average exit velocity. The pitcher is underpriced at $8,200 on DraftKings and $8,400 on FanDuel, he will be extraordinarily popular on both DratKings and FanDuel. Pairing a different SP2 with Peralta is an easy way to get different on the DraftKings slate, though the opportunity cost could be severe.

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Rodriguez will be challenged by a Toronto lineup that has been above average across the board against left-handed pitching this season. The Blue Jays have a collective .181 ISO and a 4.07% home run rate and they create runs 7% better than average in the split, while striking out a mere 21.8% of the time. This could put a dent in Rodriguez’ upside on the slate, as could the ongoing threat of rain in the Boston area. The southpaw has been good through the season, despite a 5.23 ERA that makes him look rough on the surface, Rodriguez has a 3.34 xFIP and a 3.65 xERA. The lefty has a 27.4% strikeout rate and has walked just 5.8% this season, inducing an 11.4% swinging-strike rate. He allows a 7.7% barrel rate but juts a 35.5% hard-hit rate and 87.3 mph average exit velocity. Rodriguez has a reasonable enough shot at getting through the talented Blue Jays lineup clean and he comes at a major salary and ownership discount on the blue site, where he is $7,600 but drawing less than 5% ownership. On DraftKings, he is very much in play but costs $8,800, making him a pay-up pivot from options like Musgrove.

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are at the top of the board on both DraftKings and FanDuel by probability of success, while their leverage is wildly different from site to site. On FanDuel, Toronto is owned roughly around where they “should” be by the field, while the DraftKings slate is leaving them largely untouched. There are weather concerns surrounding the team’s game in Boston and they are extremely expensive on the site, but there is upside in play for the under-owned quality lineup on at least that slate. The lineup plays from one through seven at least, with George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Cavan Biggio all making excellent plays that are difficult to put together in affordable combinations.

Oakland Athletics

The Athletics are on the road to face Dylan Bundy in Anaheim. The righty has struggled through the season, posting just a 22% strikeout rate with a 4.38 xFIP and a 1.41 WHIP. He has allowed a 10.3% barreled-ball rate with a 14.4 degree average launch angle and 89.2 mph average exit velocity this season, mixed with a 37.9% hard-hit rate. Bundy is targetable for power and sequential hitting which leads to run creation, he does just an average job limiting free passes, with a 7.4% walk rate. Bundy will be facing an Athletics lineup that just added a major piece in outfielder Starling Marte, unfortunately as of the mid-afternoon, FanDuel does not have Marte in the player pool, making him a DraftKings only play, and putting a minor correlation ding in the Athletics play on the blue site.

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Mark Canha leads off the projected A’s lineup, coming into the contest slashing .255/.379/.440 with 11 home runs and a .185 ISO over 364 plate appearances. Canha is a quality bat off the top of the lineup, he can create on his own and provides strong correlation with hitters later in the lineup, given his ability to get on base frequently. Canha creates runs 35% better than average and he is too cheap at $3,100 on the FanDuel slate, his $5,200 price on DraftKings is more appropriate.

Marte is an excellent addition to the Oakland lineup, he is well suited to deliver most of the skills the organization looks for. Marte made 275 plate appearances with the Marlins this season, slashing .304/.405/.451 with seven home runs and 22 stolen bases. His on-base and hit tools are both excellent, Marte creates runs a terrific 40% better than average and brings another power and speed MLB DFS threat to the lineup … at least on one site. For $5,400 and the only game in town, Marte is very playable as part of an A’s stack on DraftKings.

Matt Olson crushes baseballs. The slugger has hit 27 home runs and has a .299 ISO across his 406 plate appearances this season. He has improved in other facets of hitting as well, he is slashing .284/.369/.583 on the season and striking out at just a 16% rate, significantly better than most hitters with power at this level. Olson creates runs 59% better than average and is deserving of the ownership he is pulling in on the FanDuel slate, where he is approaching 20% popularity on the small slate for only $4,000. On DraftKings he will be in single digits for the $5,800 price tag. It is difficult to get to Olson and any combination of Blue Jays bats and fill out a lineup that comes in below the salary cap on that site.

Jed Lowrie hits from both sides of the plate and costs a mere $4,000 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel, where he picks up third base eligibility in addition to the second base he fits into on both sites. Lowrie has been solid, but unspectacular, for the Athletics this season. He is slashing .261/.328/.415 with a .154 ISO and 11 home runs over 372 plate appearances. The switch hitter creates runs 10% better than average, but would be better served by dropping two spots in this lineup. For the pricing and relative quality at his positions, Lowrie is playable across the industry.

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Ramon Laureano does similar things to Marte. Laureano has made 348 plate appearances for Oakland this season, slashing .248/.319/.446 with 14 home runs and 11 stolen bases. The hit tool and on-base skills are not on Marte’s level, but Laureano possesses more power, posting a .197 ISO to this point in the season. He creates runs 15% better than average and would see a major jump in quality if he were to cut his 24.7% strikeout rate and get on base more frequently. Laureano is a solid option from the middle of this lineup, he will be under-owned on both sites.

Lefty platoon specialist Mitch Moreland has hit seven home runs in 201 plate appearances this season, posting just a .166 ISO and creating runs 4% behind the average. Moreland’s lone job is to hit for power against right-handed pitching, but he has come up short for the most prat. He is slashing .238/.299/.403 on the season and he has dropped from an excellent 14.4% barreled-ball rate to just an 8.3% mark. There is upside in getting to Moreland, but not where his positioning costs a chance at rostering Olson.

Sean Murphy brings power upside from the right side of the plate and at a premium position on DraftKings. The catcher has hit 13 home runs in 316 plate appearances this season, though he is slashing .217/.304/.422. Murphy hits the ball hard with reliability, he has a .206 ISO this season and he barrels the ball 13.2% of the time with a 43.1% hard-hit rate. The backstop is deserving of a spot at least where the position is required, and he makes for an offbeat option on the blue site as well.

Struggling Matt Chapman falls to the eight spot in the projected lineup, but could move up to essentially any spot in the batting order. The third baseman is slashing a mere .218/.312/.371 with 12 home runs in 407 plate appearances. He has just a .152 ISO this season and is 6% below average in run creation, as measured by WRC+. The former star is only two years removed from an excellent season for home runs and power upside, there is every reason to hope and expect he will still turn his year around, but he has become more of a question mark.

Elvis Andrus is only nominally a Major League player at this point and he is an unlikely source of MLB DFS production. Andrus is slashing .229/.271/.307 with two home runs and nine stolen bases. If he were able to get on base more reliably he could use his legs and become interesting as a wraparound option, but none of that is the case. Andrus is at best a very low-end mix-in option.

HR Call: Matt Olson — Oakland Athletics

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.