The nine-game Saturday night slate brings a strong mix of quality arms and high-end stacks to the table. The lion’s share of public ownership is on three very obvious names from atop the board, creating a clear path to lineup differentiation on DraftKings. Simply clicking an alternate SP2 will start construction on a different path than the majority of the field. Selecting a different single starter on the FanDuel slate becomes a bit more challenging, given the opportunity cost of approaching the score of all three of the top options. However, the savings in price and ownership can offset a bit of a scoring delta. Getting to low-owned bats in unique combinations is an easier exercise, particularly when utilizing the Top Stacks Tool and following the positive leverage.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Be sure to catch the MLB DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock, where we will review all the games, emphasizing finding the best stacks and top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy baseball lineups.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker — 4.51
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 7.13
Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ — 11.14
Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez — 14.62
Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 10.58
Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 7.10
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon — 6.46
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 10.66
Milwaukee Brewers: Tyrone Taylor — 2.90
Minnesota Twins: Mitch Garver — 11.28
New York Mets: Javier Baez — 4.87
Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 10.28
Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco — 7.76
San Diego Padres: Eric Hosmer — 3.75
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager — 10.20
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 20.15
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 8.67
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 11.64
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The slate is primed with three excellent arms in Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola, San Diego’s Yu Darvish, and Brandon Woodruff of the Milwaukee Brewers. The three aces are soaking up a gigantic portion of both public ownership and the probability of being the top option on both sites tonight. Making specific pitching pivots is a quick and easy way to get different on the slate. Still, it is important to do so intelligently, keeping in mind that there will likely be many points to make up with whatever pitcher and upgraded bats are selected instead. Additional options of interest include Colorado’s German Marquez in a tough spot against the Padres, Washington’s Joe Ross taking on a severely diminished Cubs team, and a handful of soft-tossers and contact specialists that includes Wade Miley, Kyle Hendricks, Kyle Muller and Rich Hill.
The Phillies ace takes the mound against a lowly Pirates team that creates runs 17% worse than average against right-handed pitching this season. Nola has been solid through the season. He has completed 115.1 innings in 20 starts and has a 29% strikeout rate with just a 5.0% walk rate and a 1.17 WHIP. Nola has induced a 13.1% swinging-strike rate and compiled a 30.9% CSW%. He allows a 7.4% barreled ball rate and a 37.5% hard-hit rate on the season, doing a fair job of keeping down premium contact and keeping the ball in the yard, though his expected slugging percentage is creeping up into the .400 range. The righty costs $9,700 on DraftKings, where nearly half the field will own him. On the FanDuel slate, his $11,000 price tag is not doing much to limit popularity. Nola will be in roughly a quarter of the field’s builds. Getting to Nola is a fine selection on the slate, but careful consideration should be given to the uniqueness of combinations that go into lineup constructions that include him.
Darvish draws a pathetic Colorado lineup that somehow is the same as it was going into the trade deadline yesterday. The Rockies’ total mismanagement of their assets does not hamper the upside for the Padres right-handed ace in this spot, despite the ongoing presence of Trevor Story in their lineup. Darvish stands an excellent chance to be the slate’s best starter. The Rockies’ active roster is the worst in baseball against righties by WRC+, creating runs a full 30% worse than average in the split. They strike out 23.4% of the time and have a .142 ISO with just a 2.66% home run rate in the split. Darvish, meanwhile, has been largely terrific this season. The righty has a 28.9% strikeout rate over his 115.2 innings in 20 starts. He is pitching to a 3.86 xFIP and a 1.01 WHIP, inducing a 12.8% swinging strike rate while walking just 5.8% of opposing hitters. Darvish allows just a 33.6% hard-hit rate and 87.7 mph of average exit velocity, with a 6.8% barreled ball rate, against a team largely bereft of power in the split, Darvish should have major upside for a clean start, and he is easily capable of finding bonus strikeouts. This is the most popular pitcher on the FanDuel slate, where he costs just $9,600. For $10,500 on DraftKings, Darvish is in a similar share of lineups to Nola. He makes for an excellent choice on both sites, while the same pivoting and uniqueness considerations apply.
The third ace on the board comes from Milwaukee’s spectacular pitching staff. Brandon Woodruff has been sharp all season. He has a 2.95 xFIP with a 0.84 WHIP this season, striking out 30.4% of opposing hitters over his 126.0 innings in 20 starts. The righty has walked 6.4% of hitters while inducing a 12.1% swinging-strike rate and compiling a 30.6% CSW% and allowing just a 4.3% barreled ball rate with 30% hard hits. He has been excellent at avoiding premium contact. His .303 expected slugging percentage against stands in the 89th percentile in baseball. Woodruff is facing a far more challenging opponent than the other top options, however. The Braves’ active roster is fifth-best in the league with a 4.43% home run rate, and they have a .192 ISO in the split. The team is two percent behind the curve creating runs against righties, and they strike out 24.5% of the time in the split, slightly below average, so there is upside available for Woodruff. Still, he is the least safe option among the three top starters, though he will be owned similarly to the other choices.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers land at the top of the stacks board on both sites, though they are drawing different levels of popularity across the industry. Los Angeles is costly on DraftKings, which has limited their overall exposure, while they will be more popular for a lower investment on the blue site. The Los Angeles lineup is stacked from top to bottom. They can be rostered in essentially any combination on this slate, depending on positional and salary requirements. The team is facing Merrill Kelly, a righty who has a 20.5% strikeout rate over his 123 innings this season. Kelly has been relatively solid, pitching to a 3.96 xFIP and walking just 5.5% of hitters. Still, he has a 1.21 WHIP and a 40.7% hard-hit rate, a combination of quality contact and opportunity that can be exploited by a team that is excellent for both power and sequential hitting. The Dodgers should be more popular than they are, though they may trend further into negatively leveraged territory as lock approaches.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners were in a somewhat similar spot yesterday, facing a middling young lefty while coming in at low prices, but they were projected to be far more popular on the slate, which lessened the appeal. On this evening’s main slate, the Mariners appear to be under-owned for their probability of being the top stack on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The team is facing Taylor Hearn, a lefty with 49 innings under his belt this season but just two starts. Hearn is unlikely to pitch more than three or four innings, leading directly into a shaky Texas bullpen and providing even more upside. For the early part of the game, the Mariners will be facing a lefty who has a 25.1% strikeout rate with a 4.37 xFIP, an 11.8% walk rate, and an 8.3% barreled ball rate, which combines for run creation opportunities. Hearn has allowed a 41.7% hard-hit rate with a 15.4-degree average launch angle, pushing into significant home run territory. Seattle has a league-worst 26.9% strikeout rate in the split, but their 4.22% home run rate stands out for power potential in this matchup.
Check Out Our New MLB DFS & Betting Tools The Awesemo MLB DFS and betting experts have worked hard to bring you brand new tools that are assured to help you improve your process — whether it's for DraftKings and FanDuel or in the sports betting markets. The MLB Player Props Tool will give you expert picks for what props are most likely to win in the strikeouts and home run prop markets, while the MLB Power Rankings will give you a more advance at team props and run lines. Be sure to get all the expert advice you can get with our MLB DFS Gameplan Archive of videos.JP Crawford is likely to lead off for Seattle, he is an inexpensive option for a leadoff hitter, and he will be owned in the low single digits on both sites tonight. Crawford is slashing .266/.327/.364 over 425 plate appearances this season. He has hit five home runs and stolen three bases, posting a .098 ISO while creating runs three percent worse than average. The lefty has been slightly better against same-handed pitching this season, but most of his quality comes against right-handed pitching for his career. For merely $4,600 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel, Crawford is a relatively productive way to start a Mariners stack.
Mitch Haniger is the best player in the Mariners lineup. The right-handed outfielder comes in with a $5,700 price tag on DraftKings but costs just $3,400 on the blue site. He is slashing .258/.315/.501 with 25 home runs and a .243 ISO, creating runs 24% better than average for the season. Haniger will be under-owned on the DraftKings slate, no one is paying up to his whopping salary, and he is projected below five percent popularity. Across town, the low price has Haniger pulling nearly three times the popularity, putting his viability into a bit of question as a one-off, but leaving him easily playable in stacks. Haniger has the team’s best mark in my home run model. He has a 12.1% barreled ball rate and a 43.4% hard-hit rate on the season. Both marks are team-leading.
Ty France is quietly having a respectable year at the plate. The infielder has multi-position eligibility on both sites. He is a second baseman on both and adds first base eligibility on DraftKings, third base on FanDuel. France is slashing .277/.354/.421 on the season, with nine home runs and a WRC+ 20% ahead of the average. France has demonstrable upside for power and run creation. In 549 plate appearances between AAA and MLB in 2019, he hit 34 home runs. France also brings quality plate discipline. He strikes out just 16.7% of the time, reliably putting the ball in play with regularity. He should be included in the bulk of Mariners stacks for a low price and minimal public popularity.
Lefty veteran Kyle Seager is slashing .218/.293/.433 this season, but he has hit 21 home runs and has a .215 ISO, creating runs one percent better than average. Seager is striking out at a 25.1% rate but walking 9.2% of the time, which keeps him slightly ahead of the curve despite the lousy production with the hit tool. There is always an upside for power in the bat. Seager has a 41.5% hard-hit rate with an 11.6% barreled ball rate this season. He is more than capable of taking advantage of a mistake, though he may be better served if he draws a righty out of the bullpen later in the game.
Luis Torrens hits from the right side of the plate and makes a fair amount of quality contact, barreling the ball 12.6% of the time with a 40.7% hard-hit rate. Torrens slots in as a first baseman on DraftKings and a catcher on FanDuel, which is the same thing on a team with no designated first baseman on the blue site. He is inexpensive and unpopular across the industry, making him an appealing five-hitter in a Mariners stack. Torrens has made 212 plate appearances this season, and he has hit 12 home runs, posting a high quality .237 ISO and creating runs eight percent ahead of the average despite a .221/.297/.458 triple-slash. Torrens should be rostered in Seattle stacks. He is even a sneaky potential one-off option.
Abraham Toro was brought in from Houston ahead of the trade deadline. Toro is a switch hitter with power and speed upside. In 133 plate appearances, he has hit eight home runs and stolen four bases. He is slashing .235/.308/.454 with a .218 ISO and creating runs 12% better than average and had been providing a quality backup to injured Astros star Alex Bregman for part of the season before the trade. Toro is a sneaky option from later in the lineup. Though he has put up his current numbers despite just a 5.3% barreled ball rate and a 31.9% hard-hit rate, with a change in contact profile as the hitter develops, Toro could become a significant get for the Mariners in time. For MLB DFS purposes tonight, he is easily playable.
Slugging catcher Tom Murphy barrels the ball 11.4% of the time with a 39.5% hard-hit rate but strikes out a whopping 33.5%. He draws an 11.3% walk rate to help offset the swing and miss but does not make enough reliable contact for his extreme power to take over. Murphy has made 212 plate appearances, and he is slashing .202/.295/.372 with a .169 ISO while creating runs 11% worse than average. He is in play as a catcher option on DraftKings, and given the minimum salary on FanDuel, he is at least a usable piece from this lineup.
Jarred Kelenic has struggled mightily since joining the Mariners, even getting sent back to AAA for a stint early on. In 145 plate appearances in the Show, the top-ranked outfield prospect is slashing just .122/.207/.206 with three home runs and three stolen bases. Kelenic has a .084 ISO and is creating runs a hilarious 79% worse than average so far, but there is known talent in his bat. Kelenic is just 22 years old and has a flashy track record in his swift ascent through the minors, hitting for power and stealing bases. It is simply too early in the game to write off a player with tools like these. Kelenic can be rostered as an inexpensive unpopular option.
Utilityman Dylan Moore provides a touch of power and speed upside from the back-end of the lineup, though his hit tool and on-base skills leave much to be desired. Moore is slashing .183/.272/.357 with 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases. He strikes out 31.3% of the time and walks 9.6%, a number that does not align with his on-base percentage. Looking deeper, Moore is suffering from a .231 batting average on balls in play, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky in his 272 plate appearances. Over 159 opportunities last season, Moore slashed .255/.358/.496 with a .241 ISO, hitting eight home runs and stealing 12 bases. For $3,800 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel, Moore is a quality option from anywhere in the lineup, though his wraparound quality would be improved were he to bump the on-base percentage.
HR Call: Tyler O’Neill — St. Louis Cardinals
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