The 14-game Friday slate of MLB DFS action is offering a pitching board loaded with third and fourth options in rotations. There are quality selections available, some of whom are in plus matchups, but the truly safe bets are few, far between and significantly popular. This has the makings of another slate for which it will make sense to roster a broad spread of pitching combinations while zeroing in on the top-ranked positively leveraged stacks, hunting for hitting upside. Capturing a wide range of outcomes at the plate as well is important on a slate of this size.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Asdrubal Cabrera — 7.16
Atlanta Braves: Joc Pederson — 12.77
Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 8.23
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers — 12.40
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Castellanos — 11.49
Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 8.73
Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 6.30
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 6.37
Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 13.43
Kansas City Royals: Hunter Dozier — 5.73
Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton — 7.42
Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Muncy — 13.00
Miami Marlins: Jazz Chisholm — 4.46
Milwaukee Brewers: Eduardo Escobar — 4.49
Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 10.70
New York Mets: Javier Baez — 7.74
New York Yankees: Anthony Rizzo — 14.20
Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 26.33
Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 6.55
Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco — 4.04
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 13.12
San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt — 1.87
Seattle Mariners: Ty France — 7.02
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 11.64
Tampa Bay Rays: Nelson Cruz — 20.11
Texas Rangers: D.J. Peters — 5.07
Toronto Blue Jays: Corey Dickerson — 3.55
Washington Nationals — Yadiel Hernandez — 1.61
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
For a night with 28 available pitchers, the choice cuts are somewhat limited on the Friday pitching butcher block. When the Top Pitchers tool is rating a Coors Field starter as one of the most likely pitchers to be the top scorer on the night, it is clear what the selections are like. The board is topped by Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, who is facing the upstart Giants, while Colorado’s German Marquez has a quality matchup with the Marlins in town in Denver. One of the better options in an ownership vacuum is Chris Bassitt in a start against the Texas Rangers, but he will be exceedingly popular across the industry and lands at a significant negative leverage number. Several aging arms are on the board for quality if not major upside, including Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke and Mike Minor, while a few young starters are lining up for similar value, with Atlanta’s Kyle Muller drawing a weakened Nationals team that may now be without Juan Soto, and Alek Manoah facing a dangerous Red Sox lineup. Cincinnati’s Wade Miley and Philadelphia’s Kyle Gibson are a pair of low strikeout veterans who could get through a handful of innings relatively unscathed, which could be enough to provide SP2 value on a slate like this.
Burnes stands above the entire field with his fantastic 36% strikeout rate over 106 innings in 18 starts this season. He has a 2.20 xFIP and a 0.97 WHIP with a 4.7% walk rate this season. He induces a stellar 16% swinging strike rate and has a 33.8% CSW that is the best in baseball among pitchers with at least 100 innings this season. Burnes sits in the 94th percentile with an 85.5 mph average exit velocity allowed, a 98th-percentile barrel rate of 2.9%, a 96th-percentile hard-hit rate at 29.4% and a 99th-percentile expected slugging percentage of just .244. Burnes will be facing a Giants team that has been excellent against both hands this season, though they are strikeout heavy against right-handed pitching, lending the starter additional upside. San Francisco hits for power in the split, they have a 4.63% home run rate with a .205 collective ISO, both of which are second-best in baseball, and they create runs 12% ahead of the average. The strikeout rate stands at 25.3%, the second-worst mark in the league, creating a significant amount of upside for a pitcher of Burnes’ quality. For $11,000 on FanDuel and $10,000 on DraftKings, Burnes is worthy of plenty of lineup shares, though his ownership is approaching 50% on the DraftKings slate and 20% on the blue site, which could become concerning on a slate of this size. Burnes is easily the best option for a high score, but he is not entirely safe and may warrant an undercut with that much of the field riding his coattails.
Bassitt has provided steady quality all season, pitching to a 3.92 xFIP and a 1.06 WHIP over 137 innings in 22 starts. He has a 24.9% strikeout rate and a 5.9% walk rate and has been excellent limiting quality contact with just a 32.3% hard-hit rate. He will face a Texas team that lost its best hitter at the deadline and was never very good to begin with. The Rangers active roster is in the middle of the league with a 24% strikeout rate against righties this season, but they are below average with just a .140 collective ISO and a 3.10% home run rate in the split, and they create runs 21% below average. Bassitt has a .371 expected slugging percentage that sits in the 60th percentile and is somewhat indicative of the stark quality difference between the first- and second-best options on this slate, but the Oakland starter will be almost as heavily owned across the industry. A massive portion of the pitching shares on both DraftKings and FanDuel will be dedicated to Bassitt and Burnes, pivoting away from one, or even the pair, is an immediate path toward lineup differentiation.
Rostering pitchers at Coors Field is typically anathema to winning strategy, but with the right pitcher in the right spot, there is at least a needle to thread. Marquez is that pitcher, having pitched to a 25% strikeout rate and an excellent 3.46 xFIP with a 1.17 WHIP this season. He walks too many at 9%, but he induces a 13% swinging strike rate with a 29.4% CSW and allows a mere 3.7% barrel rate with a 4.7-degree average launch angle that is excellent to suppress home run and extra base hit upside. Marquez has the strikeout ability to get himself out of jams created by issuing too many free passes, if he could trim the walks by a few percentage points he would be one of the league’s better starters. It is rare for this space to discuss home/road splits, but in this instance it is important given the absurd park factors at play in Colorado. For his career, Marquez has demonstrated a clear ability to pitch in his home ballpark. He has a 4.72 ERA at home and 3.55 on the road for his career, but his home xFIP sits at 3.41 to a 3.75 mark on the road. He strikes out 24.5% at home compared to 23.7% while traveling, though his walks jump from 6.5% to 7.2% at home. Marquez has a .335 batting average on balls in play against for his career pitching in Colorado, partly a factor of the big ballpark, partly attributable to luck, on the road that mark is .278. Against a team that is one of the worst in baseball, there should be plenty of upside for Marquez in this home start. The Marlins have a 24.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this a .128 ISO and a 2.64% home run rate that are near the bottom of the league in the split. Rostering a Coors starter is neither comfortable nor common, but on this slate it could be crafty, particularly on the blue site where Marquez is well below 10% projected ownership.
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Muller faces a Nationals lineup that has been depleted throughout the season by circumstance, injury and trade, and the team is now likely to be without star slugger Juan Soto. Muller has been sharp through 29.2 innings in six starts this season, though he should only be counted on for a five inning start and potentially a shot at a win bonus with the Braves’ high-octane offense behind him. Muller has a 27% strikeout rate with a 13.9% swinging strike rate and a 30.1% CSW on the season, though he has allowed a concerning number of walks, yielding free passes to 12.3% of hitters. He has a low 5.5% barrel rate though he has allowed a 41.1% hard-hit rate with a 90.5 mph average exit velocity and 17.9-degree average launch angle in the small sample. Despite the fly ball trajectory and significant number of hard hits, Muller has allowed just one home run over the six starts. Limiting power has been a traceable skill throughout Muller’s minor league career, which should help remove most of the threat of a Nationals outburst at the plate. With Soto, Washington has a .185 collective ISO and a 4.58% home run rate against left-handed pitching this season, creating runs 1% ahead of the average but striking out 24.2% of the time, the 10th worst mark in baseball. Without Soto there would be a notable dip in the power and run creation marks. Muller costs just $7,700 on FanDuel and is pulling in well under 10% ownership. On the DraftKings slate he is priced up to $9,200 but is drawing low single-digit ownership for the bump, which creates a very interesting opportunity for GPP play.
Coors Field
With Marquez covering half of the Coors game and the Marlins bringing Sandy Alcantara to the mound on their side. The Rockies have the higher implied total, but they are also the league’s worst offense by WRC+ against right-handed pitching, coming in 27% below average in run creation. Colorado has a .149 ISO and a 2.90% home run rate in the split as well. Interestingly, this is creating a situation where both teams in the park will be owned largely in the single digits up and down their lineups. For those that like to push chips on the park factors only in situations where the public is not getting there, this may be the best opportunity of the entire season. Both teams are facing quality pitchers, but the public will not be there and the big ballpark and altitude remain. The primary Marlins bats to consider from the projected lineup include Jazz Chisholm, Jesus Aguilar, Lewis Brinson and Brian Anderson. On the Rockies side, Raimel Tapia, Brendan Rodgers, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, C.J. Cron and Ryan McMahon offer a minimal shot at quality. It remains worth repeating that these teams are not overly likely to be the top options on the night, even with low ownership they land at or near negative leverage for their low probability of success.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are the top ranked team on the stacks board across the industry, but they are a different play from site to site. Tampa is trending into negative leverage territory on FanDuel, but they have the slate’s highest positive leverage number on DraftKings, making them a fantastic play on the site. Tampa is facing lefty John Means, who continues to get by on an excessive amount of luck and happenstance. Means has a 23.1% strikeout rate and a minimal 4.4% walk rate on the season, with a 4.46 xFIP and a 0.87 WHIP. He induces a solid 12.8% swinging strike rate but has a below average 28.4% CSW. He allows a 10.7% barrel rate with a 21.8-degree average launch angle but is spared somewhat by a 35.7% hard-hit rate and 86.6 mph average exit velocity. Means’ luck comes in the form of a .198 batting average on balls in play against. Means has just a 29.8% ground ball rate, so this is not a case of a pitcher who induces ground ball after ground ball directly into a properly shifted defense, Means is getting by with smoke and mirrors, and he is targetable in a general sense. Tampa Bay struggled for the early part of the season against lefties, but adding Nelson Cruz to the mix is a quick solution to that problem. The Rays still stands at just a 3.37% home run rate and a .155 collective ISO against lefties, and they have created runs 1% behind the average with a big 25.5% strikeout mark, but taking shots on under-owned quality is always a good approach in GPPs. Rays bats to consider include Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Cruz, Yandy Diaz, Austin Meadows despite a same-handed matchup to start, Manny Margot, Brandon Lowe and power-packed Mike Zunino. Several alternate bats may land in the lineup and will be playable depending on batting order and final ownership projections.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are in a solid spot playing in a home park that favors hitting and taking on J.T. Brubaker, who had a strong start to his season before largely tailing off. Brubaker has a 3.83 xFIP with a 1.17 WHIP and a 23.8% strikeout rate this season, coming in with a solid 12.5% swinging strike rate, but he has allowed too many barrels at 8.4% and comes up relatively targetable for sequential hitting and run creation. The Reds have been a strong offense through most of the season and they should have recently returned Nick Castellanos in the lineup once again. The slightly under-owned stack should include options like Jonathan India, Jesse Winker, Castellanos, Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez, with Kyle Farmer and Tyler Naquin acting as strong mix-ins for multiple builds. India, Winker, Castellanos and Votto have an average WRC+ of 41% ahead of the league average for run creation as a quartet.
New York Mets
The Mets are one of the lone highly ranked team stacks that comes up with positive leverage on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. They are facing their division rival in the hitter-friendly park in Philadelphia. The Phillies will have Gibson on the mound, creating a bit of a both sides situation in which MLB DFS players will likely roster a few shares of Gibson in addition to separate shares of Mets bats. Gibson has a 4.17 xFIP with a 20.3% strikeout rate this season and has an inflated walk percentage at 8.8%. Gibson has been good with contact, allowing just a 3.5% barrel rate that helps him avoid disaster from sequential hitting and free passes. He is not a high-end starter, but he is capable enough to put up a decent outing here, at the same time there are enough indicators to say the Mets can get to him for a bit of power and upside.
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Pete Alonso comes in at a $4,000 price tag on the FanDuel slate and costs $5,100 on DraftKings. He has made 401 plate appearances this season and has hit 24 home runs with a .241 ISO, creating runs 25% better than average along the way. He is slashing .253/.337/.494 for the season with a 45.8% hard-hit rate and a 14.8% barrel rate. Alonso strikes out just 19.5% of the time, a solid mark for a hitter with this much power, and he walks at a 10.2% rate, adding to his overall quality.
Jeff McNeill slashed .311/.383/.454 in 209 plate appearances last season and .318/.384/.531 in 567 opportunities the year before. This year, McNeill is down to a .273/.353/.401 across his first 255 plate appearances. He has a .128 ISO but still creates runs well, coming in 13% ahead of the average. McNeill remains pricey on DraftKings at $5,300, but he is cheap at $3,100 on FanDuel and is a smart bet for an eventual return to form.
Javier Baez is the most expensive hitter on the team on DraftKings at $5,700 but costs just $3,700 on FanDuel. Baez has hit 24 home runs in 387 plate appearances this season and has a .236 ISO, though he creates runs just 2% ahead of the average and is slashing .242/.285/.478. He strikes out a massive 36.4% of the time and walks at just a 4.1% clip, but he connects for hard hits 45.3% of the time that he makes contact and has a 13.5% barrel rate that speak to his power and extra base hit quality. Baez has a wide range of outcomes, ideal for GPP stacks when he is under-owned.
With multi-position eligibility from first base to the outfield on FanDuel, Dominic Smith provides upside and flexibility for a cheap $2,900 price tag and less than 5% ownership. Smith is exclusively an outfielder on the DraftKings slate but is equally viable at just $3,500. He has hit 11 home runs this season but has a disappointing .134 ISO and is creating runs 2% behind the average. Smith is slashing .257/.322/.391 and has not barreled the ball enough at just 6.7% which makes clear where his power went. Smith has hit 10 home runs and has a titanic .299 ISO in 199 plate appearances last season. If that hitter shows up for a night a tournament winning score could come with him.
J.D. Davis is another low-cost low-owned Mets bat. Davis has made just 109 plate appearances this season but is slashing a quality .304/.413/.500 with four home runs and a .196 ISO in the small sample. He has created runs 52% better than average in the limited opportunities but is not priced for that kind of productivity. Davis is a quality bet from late in the Mets lineup.
Michael Conforto has made 277 plate appearances this season and is slashing a lame .199/.329/.329 with a .130 ISO and creating runs 9% behind the average, with just six home runs. Ignoring the near total lack of current-year quality, he was at a .322/.412/.515 slash with nine home runs in 233 plate appearances in 2020 and .257/.363/.494 with 33 home runs and a .237 ISO in 648 plate appearances the year before. While Conforto can hit, extracting it is the ongoing problem.
James McCann has made 309 plate appearances this season and is slashing .246/.311/.363 with eight home runs. He is playable where catchers are required and can largely be skipped over on the FanDuel slate, though allocating a few shares in a great number of Mets stacks would not necessarily be a mistake.
HR Call: Matt Olson — Oakland Athletics
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