MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 7/26/21

MLB DFS action on Monday evening brings a seven-game fantasy baseball slate that comes up short on premium pitching options and features a number of quality spots for bats. With the public largely focused on the top pitching options on the board and the same value stacks to put things together, there are very tight avenues of construction. In this situation, identifying a unique angle to constructions or an undervalued pitcher or stack is the key to finding a differentiated, tournament-winning build. Let’s dive into the best MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel today with the help of Awesemo’s expert MLB DFS projections.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.


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Home Run Ratings

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Boston Red Sox: Enrique Hernandez — 4.39

Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez — 4.60

Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez — 12.85

Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 12.22

Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 5.20

Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 6.65

Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 14.30

Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 5.50

Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton — 5.46

Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 7.15

Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 11.96

Seattle Mariners: Mitch Haniger — 7.02

Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 12.62

Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 10.13


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

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MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

The Monday pitching slate is light on quality and heavy on questions. Two of the obvious names at the top of the board will be in a significant number of public lineups on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Shohei Ohtani is in a terrific spot pitching at home against the weak Rockies, while Luis Garcia will be in Seattle trying to shut down the mediocre Mariners offense. Beyond the top two, German Marquez brings quality and reliability to the other side of the Rockies – Angels game, while Wade Miley and Kyle Hendricks both offer up a dull consistency and relatively low ceilings. Joe Ross could prove an interesting piece, given a near total lack of ownership in his contest against the Phillies, though his innings may be a question mark in his first start back from the injured list.

Ohtani has thrown 73 innings in 14 starts this season and has largely been terrific on the mound. He has a 31.1% strikeout rate and a 3.57 xFIP on the season with a 14% induced swinging strike rate. He walks far too many hitters, coming in at an 11.8% rate for the season, but his strikeouts and ability to limit opposing hits has his WHIP at a respectable 1.16. Ohtani has allowed a 7.1% barrel rate with a 42.3% hard-hit rate and an 11-degree average launch angle, so he is not impervious to power if the right hitter connects. The Rockies have been so limited against right-handed pitching this season that it is easy to have the expectation of a high score from Ohtani. Colorado is baseball’s worst team at creating runs in the split, coming into tonight with a collective WRC+ 31% below average. The second-worst team lands just 15% worse than average, for reference. The Rockies also have just a 2.63% home run rate and a .140 collective ISO in the split, both among baseball’s worst. Colorado strikes out at a 23.2% rate against righties this season, which lands 12th in baseball as their lone above average mark. Ohtani is in line for an upside start, but at $9,200 on DraftKings he will be in a gargantuan share of public lineups. He is extremely popular for the $11,000 price tag on FanDuel as well, it is easy to roster a significant share of Ohtani and remain below the field, though there are not many clear-cut pivots.

On the other side of the same contest, Marquez should provide his usual shot at a good performance, though the win upside is severely limited given his team. He does provide a good shot at the quality start bonus, Marquez has completed 118.1 innings in 20 starts, providing reliable depth most times out. He has a 24.7% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk rate that could stand to come down a few points but maintains a 1.16 WHIP and has pitched to a 3.53 xFIP with a 13.1% swinging strike rate. Marquez racks up quality numbers despite pitching half his games in hitter haven Coors Field, adding to the overall quality in his line. He will be on the road facing an Angels team that has been ahead of the average in most offensive categories as a team against right-handed pitching this season. The Angels have a .179 ISO and a 3.75% home run rate and create runs 6% ahead of the average by collective WRC+. They are in the middle of the pack with a 23.6% strikeout rate in the split, so there could be upside to a few bonus strikeouts for Marquez. At $8,400 on DraftKings, Marquez is drawing significant popularity. As the blue site decided to price Marquez at $10,200 tonight, he will be far less popular, and therefore more interesting, on that site tonight.

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The Astros give a natural bump to their pitchers with the excellent lineup helping with win upside in most spots. Houston will have Garcia on the mound, and he has been excellent over 91.1 innings, posting a 3.90 xFIP and a 28.5% strikeout rate with a 7.9% walk rate. He allows 39% hard contact and an 18.1-degree average launch angle with a 6.5% barrel rate, but he has largely stayed out of trouble with the sharp strikeout numbers and an ability to limit sequential hitting. Garcia has an excellent 1.06 WHIP on the season with a 13.6% swinging strike rate and a 31.3% CSW bolstering the notion that the strikeout ability demonstrated so far is real and sustainable. Garcia is popular at over $10,000 on both sites, but he is in an excellent spot facing a Mariners team that is baseball’s fifth worst with a 25.5% strikeout rate against righties. Seattle has a .157 ISO and a 3.61% home run rate that are both around the average, while their collective WRC+ is nine points behind the curve. Garcia stands an excellent chance of being one of the top starters on the night, he should be rostered.

Miley and Hendricks are two boring starters with 19.8% and 17.5% strikeout rates, respectively. They are both on the board and drawing limited ownership, pitching against one another’s quality offenses. Picking between the two, Miley seems the better option, but there are better spots available for upside than either of these starters. Joe Ross, for example, will be making his first start back from the injured list, taking on the Phillies, who have shown a surprising lack of quality against righties through the season. Ross is priced at $7,900 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel, and he is drawing under 3% ownership on both sites. He has more demonstrable upside than either Miley or Hendricks, he has a 24.7% strikeout rate on the season and induces 11.3% swinging strikes with a 29.8% CSW. Ross tends to be a roller coaster, he allows a 9.5% barrel rate and a 37% hard-hit rate that plays to average power against, but he flashes upside in spots and faces a Phillies lineup that is collectively 11% worse than average creating runs in the split. Philadelphia has a .158 ISO and a 3.47% home run rate that are in the middle of the league, while their 24% strikeout rate is slightly below average. This is a potentially sneaky spot for Ross, though he is in no way safe given his nature, the individual quality in the Phillies lineup and the potential question about pitch count.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals will be backing up Ross with bats, taking on rookie Spencer Howard. Howard has thrown 24.2 innings in six starts in the Show, it is fair to say that the Phillies’ top prospect has struggled to find his form at this level. He has a 5.33 xFIP and a 1.46 WHIP with a 25.9% strikeout rate that would be good were it not for a 15.2% walk rate. Howard compounds his problems by allowing a 7.9% barrel rate with a 20.1-degree average launch angle that plays well for home run upside for the right hitters. There are clear indicators that he will develop into a near frontline starter over time, that time is just unlikely to be in the hours immediately before tonight’s start. Howard can be targeted on this slate, and the Nationals are going under-owned on FanDuel. They are more popular on the DraftKings slate, despite massive $6,100 and $6,300 prices on Trea Turner and Juan Soto. Other interesting Nationals bats include Josh Bell and Josh Harrison, while Victor Robles has speed upside for sneaky stolen bases and has gotten his on-base percentage to a respectable .320 despite hitting just .203. If Washington’s ownership slides as lock approaches, they will have upside. But if the public pushes them into negative leverage territory, this is an easy stack to leave on the table.

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Minnesota Twins

The Twins are drawing justifiably huge ownership numbers across the industry in their contest against the Tigers and struggling righty Matt Manning. He has just a 10.5% strikeout rate in his 28 innings over six starts this season. He walks 8.1% of hitters and has a 5.51 xFIP with a 1.46 WHIP, a 7% barrel rate and a 90.3 mph average exit velocity. Minnesota has run-creation upside against Manning, and their projections are flashing for it. However, the Minnesota bats will be so crushingly popular on both sites that it seems to warrant at least considering an undercut to the field’s numbers. Particularly given the lack of high-end pitching options on the whole, far too much of the field will be rostering Twins with Ohtani as a primary combination. Getting away from half the field by simply not overplaying your hand is always a sound approach, though the upside for the Twins bats is obvious.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are getting a major lineup boost with the return of Eloy Jimenez today. He has been on the injured list all season, and their offense has missed his power. The Sox are in Kansas City, facing Mike Minor, who has come down in quality since starting the season well. Minor has a 22.7% strikeout rate over 112.1 innings and 20 starts. He has pitched to a 4.39 xFIP with a 1.30 WHIP and he allows quality contact with a 9.1% barrel rate and a 16.9-degree average launch angle with a 37% hard-hit rate and 89.2 mph average exit velocity. The under-owned White Sox stack has upside tonight.

Tim Anderson is an excellent source of power and speed, coming into this one with nine home runs and 16 stolen bases over his 369 plate appearances. Anderson is slashing an excellent .304/.339/.444 with a .140 ISO and creates runs 17% better than average. With quality offense filling in behind him, he has upside atop the White Sox lineup.

Adam Engel lands in the No. 2 spot in the projected lineup. He has made 70 plate appearances on the season, slashing .246/.329/.525 with five home runs and three stolen bases in the small sample. Engel has a .279 ISO and has created runs 33% better than average in that stint, though those numbers are divergent from his career track record, Engel has always profiled as a speed, hit tool and defense player, and he has never hit more than six home runs in a season. He is simply a low-owned low-cost piece in the early part of the lineup if he is hitting second.

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Jose Abreu has 397 plate appearances on the season, slashing .253/.335/.471 with a .218 ISO, creating runs 22% ahead of the average. Abreu has hit 18 home runs this season, one shy of the 19 he had in just 262 plate appearances last year, but relatively close to his career pace. He has a career .225 ISO and a WRC+ 33% better than average since coming into the league in 2014. Abreu is cheap for $3,700 and under 10% ownership on the blue site, and he costs $5,200 on DraftKings.

Andrew Vaughn lands in the cleanup spot in the projected lineup early in the day, though this spot could conceivably go to any of the following two hitters as well. Vaughn has been steady through his rookie year, slashing .258/.318/.458 with a .200 ISO while creating runs 13% better than average. Considering he had never played above high-A before this season, that is a remarkable performance. Vaughn has hit 11 home runs, flashing steady power upside, and he should benefit from a bit of pressure release as the veteran stars fill back into this lineup. For $2,600 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel, where he has first base and outfield eligibility, Vaughn is underpriced and under-owned.

Yoan Moncada brings in a $4,500 price on DraftKings but just $3,000 on FanDuel. He has seen a downturn in power this season, but he has been excellent in other areas. Overall, Moncada is slashing .274/.393/.416 with eight home runs and a .142 ISO, but he is second on the team creating runs 31% better than average. His hit tool and on-base skills are significant, Moncada is involved in much of what the White Sox do on offense, particularly when sequential hitting is in play, and he has more upside than he has shown this year for individual power. At around 5% popularity on both sites, Moncada is an excellent option in stacks on both sites.

Assuming he does return to the lineup as planned, Jimenez is an absolute steal for $2,500 on the DraftKings slate. He costs $3,000 on FanDuel and he will be owned in the mid-20% range on both sites. This brings about an interesting question: If a player returning from injury and potentially hitting this late in the lineup is that popular, is he a good play in GPPs? Jimenez seems like an integral part of building lineups, his popularity is justifiable given his skills, but there is major differentiation in simply playing the other premium hitters, particularly if building a three- or four-man stack. Jimenez hit 31 home runs in 504 plate appearances as a rookie in 2019 and another 14 in 226 tries in the short 2020 season.

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Speedster Billy Hamilton is slashing .235/.255/.408 with eight stolen bases and two home runs. He is barely clinging to MLB relevance, let alone MLB DFS point-scoring reliability. Hamilton has created runs 22% worse than average and would be easy to leave out of this lineup both for manager Tony La Russa and for DFS gamers. Hamilton has upside for steals and run scoring, but the unreliable on-base skills and placement in the lineup make him largely a cost offset at $2,100 on both sites.

Catcher Zack Collins is a $3,200 option on the DraftKings slate, where he will not be pulling much popularity. Collins is slashing .217/.337/.371 over 170 plate appearances while creating runs 1% ahead of the league average. He has multiple seasons of 15 or more home runs in his minor league career.

The projected lineup rounds out with Danny Mendick. He costs $2,100 on both sites but provides very little at the dish. He is slashing .198/.300/.273 this season and has very little pop in his bat, hitting just two home runs and compiling a .074 ISO. It is unlikely to hurt a lineup if Mendick is left on the table.

HR Call: Carlos Correa — Houston Astros

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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