The third gigantic slate of the week brings MLB DFS players all 30 teams and plenty of exciting options. The power index is showing a lot of home run potential on the board today, while the starting pitching looks like another list of mid-range options or quality pitchers in very challenging situations. Getting to the correct combinations of arms and bats is going to be a major challenge, with numerous teams profiling well for offense and pricing situating the available combinations in interesting configurations. This is an excellent slate on which to explore how various teams fit together and what different decisions mean to overall lineup construction within a team stack and how it relates to the secondary stack and pitching options available. For a slate this size, MLB DFS gamers want to focus on building highly correlated lineups from high-end MLB DFS stacks, while maximizing that upside by using full stacks.
***Get a SNEAK PEEK with our free premium data, tools and content of the day, the Awesemo Premium MLB DFS Top Pitchers.***
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free baseball picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Carson Kelly — 6.01
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. — 11.01
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 15.05
Boston Red Sox: Bobby Dalbec — 10.67
Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ — 10.15
Chicago White Sox: Yasmani Grandal — 7.61
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Castellanos — 13.07
Cleveland Indians: Eddie Rosario — 12.10
Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon — 1.87
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 6.40
Houston Astros: Carlos Correa — 4.01
Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler — 7.81
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani — 7.26
Los Angeles Dodgers: Albert Pujols — 8.99
Miami Marlins: Jazz Chisholm — 6.90
Milwaukee Brewers: Avisail Garcia — 6.66
Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz — 24.67
New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 15.08
New York Yankees: Gary Sanchez — 13.98
Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson — 21.75
Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 9.51
Pittsburgh Pirates: Colin Moran — 8.13
San Diego Padres: Trent Grisham — 10.34
San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey — 5.55
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager — 11.40
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 5.16
Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Brosseau — 5.15
Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 9.44
Toronto Blue Jays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — 12.81
Washington Nationals: Kyle Schwarber — 6.83
Latest MLB DFS Content
- Today’s Top MLB DFS Pitcher Pivots: Garrett Crochet and More (April 24)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 24)
- MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Top Values! (April 24)
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1s Joe Ryan and Bronx Bats (April 24)
- MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
Friday’s 30-man pitching slate resembles the other slates of the week: A limited number of top-end options with one of the slate’s best options starting at Coors Field and good pitchers in challenging matchups from all ranges of salary across the industry. The Brewers are in Colorado, where Corbin Burnes will be the latest premium starter to be challenged by the hitting environment. Burnes ranks at the top of the Top Pitchers Tool despite the park factors. Behind him are Dodgers ace Trevor Bauer, Jose Berrios of the Twins in a plus matchup for strikeouts, Carlos Rodon in an extremely dangerous spot against the Astros and Robbie Ray against the Orioles. A few midrange options are in play, as most of the top-end just named will be hard pressed to get through their games unscathed. The secondary options include Max Fried, Yusei Kikuchi, Alex Cobb, Luis Garcia, Chris Paddack and Nick Pivetta. Starters on that list of middling options are, to a man, also in at least somewhat challenging matchups, with varying positives and negatives, but they are all in play and one could easily stand out from the pack by the end of the night.
Burnes has pitched ridiculously well this season. He has a 41.5% strikeout rate over his first 63.1 innings in 11 starts. He has a 1.76 xFIP and a 0.85 WHIP with an 18.4% swinging strike rate and a massive 36.6% CSW. Burnes has walked just 4.1% of hitters and is an early Cy Young Award candidate in the National League. He is in the 98th percentile in hard hit rate allowed, the 92nd in average exit velocity allowed, the 91st in barrel rate against, 98th in strikeout rate, 98th in whiff percentage and 96th in chase rate. Burnes is facing a Rockies team that is only a threat when backed by their park factors, and even then they offer little resistance. The Rockies active roster sits exactly in the middle of baseball against right-handed pitching with a 23.9% strikeout rate. They are awful at everything else. Colorado has a .138 team ISO and just a 2.58% home run rate in the split and they create runs a ridiculous 32.0% worse than average as a unit. Burnes should have minimal trouble and there are plenty of strikeouts available, assuming his form continues. He is a big upside play, though the park renders him not entirely safe.
Bauer draws an Arizona lineup that is tied with the Rockies at the 23.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. They are worse than Colorado in terms of power in the split, generating just a .134 team ISO and a 2.39% home run rate, though they create runs just 16.0% worse than average in the split, which is a major improvement from what the Rockies have done so far. Arizona is not a challenging opponent for a pitcher like Bauer. He has been solid so far in Los Angeles, posting a 31.6% strikeout rate and a 0.95 WHIP over his first 88.2 innings in 14 starts. Bauer has a 3.65 xFIP and is inducing 12.4% swinging strikes this season, though he has been allowing too much premium contact. He sits in the 24th percentile in barrel rate as well as the 28th in average exit velocity allowed and 26th in hard hit rate allowed, though he is in the 68th percentile of expected slugging percentage, meaning a non-predictive happenstance in some of the contact numbers. Bauer is unlikely to face much of a challenge, for $10,500 on FanDuel and $10,600 on DraftKings he is one of the top options on the board and is one of the more likely pitchers to provide a deep start with a good chance at both a win and quality start.
Southpaw Yusei Kikuchi has an interesting matchup in the Tampa Bay Rays. Kikuchi is pitching well again this season; he has a 3.41 xFIP and a 1.05 WHIP with a 25.7% strikeout rate over his 73.2 innings in 12 starts. He has induced a healthy 13.6% swinging strike rate and has a 31.5% CSW, excellent up and down. After struggling through 2019 Kikuchi cam back with 2-3 extra miles per hour on his four-seam fastball and a brand new cutter that he did not throw at all in 2019. He improved from a 16.1% strikeout rate to a 24.2% mark, with his swinging strike rate shooting up from just 8.8% to 12.1%. With marked improvement from last year to this year, there are no reasons to doubt the veracity of Kikuchi’s performance. This is a legitimate major league pitcher with solid upside. Kikuchi’s ground ball rate also took a leap in 2020 and he has maintained that quality with a 51.6% rate so far in 2021, with the upside of sapping opposing power by forcing hitters to drive the ball directly into the ground with an average launch angle of just 6.3 degrees. Kikuchi is facing a Rays team that is third-worst in baseball against left-handed pitching with a 28.2% strikeout rate. Tampa Bay has just a 2.81% home run rate in the split, fourth from the bottom of the league and their .131 ISO against southpaws sits dead last. The Rays have created runs 13.0% worse than average in the split, Kikuchi has interesting upside and very little public ownership on the blue site, where he costs $9,200. For $8,600 on DraftKings he is drawing deserved attention as an excellent SP2 option.
Another southpaw on the board warrants discussion. Carlos Rodon has pitched very well in what can now legitimately be called a breakout season. He has a 37.2% strikeout rate and a 2.81 xFIP with a 0.84 WHIP in 66.2 commanding innings over 11 starts. Rodon is walking just 6.5% of hitters and inducing a 16.1% swinging strike rate with a 30.6% CSW. He has allowed a bit of premium contact when he does get hit, sitting 48th percentile in barrel rate and 28th percentile in average exit velocity against, though the latter can partly be attributed to the 96mph average at which his fastball is delivered as well. Rodon is in the 55th percentile in hard hit rate allowed but shoots all the way to the 87th percentile in expected slugging percentage, an excellent mark when paired with the dominant strikeouts. Rodon is drawing only minor attention across sites, however, as he is in an incredibly difficult matchup against the Astros. Houston has made their living scoring runs against lefties this season. The Astros create runs 26.0% better than average against left-handed pitching, tied with the White Sox for the best mark in baseball. The team has an above-average .175 ISO in the split and a 3.71% home run rate that actually slips to 18th in baseball. While the home run upside has not come through as significantly, the Astros simply are loaded with excellent hitters who do not strike out. The Astros active roster leads all of baseball with a 17.1% strikeout rate in the split, Angels, Diamondbacks and Pirates share a 21.1% rate that stands second-best, Houston is significantly better than every other team in baseball at avoiding strikeouts against southpaws (their 19.3% against righties also leads baseball by more than 2 percentage points). Rodon is in no way safe tonight and his upside is potentially capped by the ability of his opponents to limit strikeouts.
The Twins are in Texas to face the Rangers and they have their ace on the hill in Jose Berrios. He has a 26.0% strikeout rate and a 3.40 xFIP with a 1.09 WHIP over his first 77.1 innings in 13 starts. Berrios has induced a 10.4% swinging strike rate and has a 29.1% CSW that is around the average. He has concerning contact metrics, landing in the 44th percentile in hard hit rate and the 28th in expected slugging percentage, as well as the 23rd percentile in barrel rate. Against a team like the Rangers he may run into a home run or two, but there is solid strikeout upside against this lineup. The Rangers active roster is fourth-worst in baseball with a 26.2% strikeout rate and they create runs 11.0% worse than average in the split. Texas has a 3.24% home run rate that ranks 19th, counter to their reputation as a home run hitting squad, and they have just a .145 team ISO that also ranks in the bottom third of baseball. There is upside for Berrios at $9,000 on FanDuel and $8,500 on DraftKings, though he is drawing some attention on both sites.
Oakland Athletics vs New York Yankees
The Athletics are popping for power in my home run model in their matchup against Yankees starter Jameson Taillon, while the Yankees are near the top of the power index once again for their matchup against James Kaprielian in Yankee Stadium. The park plays well for hitting, which is no secret, and both pitchers are yielding strong home run marks to the abundant power bats up and down both lineups. The two biggest stars on the Yankees are drawing most of the popularity that either team is seeing, but both squads look like under-owned stacking spots on this slate. The Athletics lineup is highlighted by Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson, Mitch Moreland, Seth Brown, Matt Chapman and Sean Murphy, all of whom are drawing marks over 10.0 in my home run model and project well for the matchup. On the Yankees side, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are the two popular players, though both are projected for less than 15.0% ownership across the industry. Adding to their explosive power upside are Gleyber Torres (likely questionable after tweaking something last night), Gary Sanchez, Rougned Odor and Miguel Andujar on the power model, while D.J. LeMahieu remains significantly underpriced for what he has done throughout his entire career.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are on the board for offense as well given their matchup against the column’s favorite punching bag, Mike Foltynewicz. After managing to make three straight starts without yielding a home run in May, Foltynewicz has given up five in his last three starts (one, one, then three) and is at a 5.3% home run rate. He sits in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, the 19th in hard hit rate allowed, the 25th in barrel rate and just the 11th percentile in expected slugging percentage allowed. He is striking out just 15.7% of hitters this season and inducing only a 7.1% swinging strike rate and a 24.2% CSW. The Twins stack has major upside, and they are going under-owned on both sites due to heavy prices.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”06/18/2021″ team=”twins”]
The projected lineup kicks off with infielder Jorge Polanco who slots in for $3,600 at second base and shortstop on FanDuel and just the latter spot on DraftKings, where he is more expensive at $4,900. Polanco is slashing .254/.318/.444 on the season with a .190 ISO and is creating runs 9% better than average. He is up to nine home runs in his 258 plate appearances and appears to be rounding back into the form that he has flashed in previous seasons. With most of the field still sleeping on the player and the spot in the lineup atop what is expected to be a significant spot for home run upside, there is plenty of reason to roster Polanco in Twins stacks. He would be in play as an interesting ownership pivot as an infield one-off if seeking a bat-at-position as a last click on either site.
Josh Donaldson has hit 10 home runs in his 225 plate appearances this season, providing reliable power throughout his opportunities with a .215 ISO. The veteran third baseman has created runs 18.0% better than average this season and he has a steady .241/.338/.455 slash. Donaldson is in the 89th percentile in both hard hit rate and maximum exit velocity this season and the 95th percentile of average exit velocity. He adds an impressive 95th percentile barrel rate while walking in the 85th percentile and is above average avoiding strikeouts, his 18.2% strikeout rate this year represents a four-year low and ranks in the 71st percentile in baseball. Donaldson is an excellent option on both sites. He is expensive on DraftKings at $5,100, but no one is rostering the Twins stack as of afternoon ownership projections.
Nelson Cruz is similarly expensive, under-owned and powerful. He has hit 14 home runs in his 236 plate appearances and is carrying a thunderous .256 ISO while creating runs 48.0% better than average. Cruz is slashing .296/.369/.552 on the season, continuing his late career Hall of Fame push. Cruz now stands at 431 home runs, assuming health he should be in range of the magic 500 mark going into next season. He has created runs 33.0% better than average through his 16-year career and is riding a .278/.348/.530 slash with a .251 career ISO – note that he is exceeding all of these marks in his current year numbers – and has shown no signs of slowing down. Cruz is well worth the $5,500 on DraftKings and he is underpriced on the blue site..
Trevor Larnach is projected in the cleanup spot but could bounce between a few roles in the final batting order. He would be a cheap option in the middle of the lineup. He costs just $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel, though that is not creating an ownership bubble around him. Larnach has made 123 plate appearances in 2021 and is slashing .260/.374/.413 with a .154 ISO and three home runs. The steady on-base production has helped him to create runs 24.0% better than average this season, and the rookie has a solid scouting profile for additional upside. Larnach has long been regarded as having plus power potential, with 65-grade raw power in traditional scouting. He is yet to translate it in full at the professional level, though the sample is limited and he hit 13 home runs in 542 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 in just his second professional season. There is clear upside in the player and getting to some left-handed power against this pitcher is advisable.
Miguel Sano brings his powerful right-handed bat to the middle of the Twins lineup at a fair price, coming in at $4,400 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel. He is drawing essentially no ownership despite the juicy home run upside; he has a monster mark in my home run total, only a few points shy of what is listed in the home run ratings for Cruz. Sano has obliterated 13 baseballs for home runs this season, and has a .239 ISO on the year, though he is slashing just .179/.266/.418 on the season and has slipped to 13.0% below average creating runs. Sano is a three-true-outcomes hitter. He is currently striking out 39.1% of the time, which is actually down from the 43.9% rate at which he struck out last year. For his career, Sano is a 37.1% strikeout machine, but he has a .254 ISO and an 11.6% walk rate, helping him to create runs 16.0% above average despite just a .236/.327/.490 slash. Cutting strikeouts or increasing walks would do wonders for the player, but that is too much to hope for at this point. Sano still destroys most pitches that manage to run into his bat despite the first percentile whiff rate. He has a 90th percentile barrel rate and a 77th percentile average exit velocity. The power comes at a discount given some of the other numbers, Sano belongs in Twins stacks.
Alex Kirilloff is another left-handed rookie in the Twins projected lineup tonight. He has done fairly well filling in for most of the season in the absence of Max Kepler and Byron Buxton. Kirilloff is another highly regarded prospect with plus power marks in traditional scouting. He has a slightly longer track record in the minors, having started out as an 18-year-old with the Twins rookie ball club after they made him the 15th overall pick straight out of high school in the 2016 draft. Kirilloff missed 2017 but was solid through 2018 and 2019, putting up a nine home run seven stolen base year while slashing .283/.343/.413 and creating runs 21.0% better than average in Double-A in 2019. So far in the Majors this year, Kirilloff is slashing .264/.299/.422 with a .178 ISO and five home runs in 137 plate appearances. He has created runs 2% better than average and may end up commanding opportunities even when the team returns to full health. For MLB DFS purposes, he would be in an excellent position if he is hitting sixth, drawing no attention for a low cost on both sites.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”06/18/2021″ team=”twins”]
Catcher Ryan Jeffers is the highest owned Twins hitter on the DraftKings slate, though he is still below 10.0% projected popularity. On FanDuel he is going virtually untouched. Jeffers has hit four home runs in just 77 plate appearances this season, slashing .219/.260/.452. He has a .233 ISO and has created runs 8% worse than average, while striking out at a whopping 35.1%. He is more likely to deliver a multi-strikeout zero to fantasy lineups, but the power upside is clear and Jeffers should be rotated through Twins constructions with regularity.
Andrelton Simmons is a mid-range bat from near the bottom of the lineup who has some value in his ability with the hit tool and getting on base with slightly above average regularity. Simmons has not fully delivered in those areas this season, dropping from .297/.346/.356 last year to just .241/.320/.316 this season. While the .320 on-base percentage is actually above his .317 career mark, Simmons had been above .320 in five of the last six seasons, including two seasons above .330. Simmons does not offer much in terms of power upside or run creation. He has a .075 ISO and an 82 WRC+ on the season and is primarily lineup filler or a cost offset.
Outfielder Gilberto Celestino rounds out the projected lineup. He is not much of a power prospect, defined more by speed, defense and a slightly above average hit tool. Celestino slots into the outfield for just $2,200 on DraftKings and $2,000 on FanDuel, making it easy enough to roster him as filler. In 33 plate appearances he is slashing .125/.152/250 with one home run. To this point, his peak has been his 2019 season in low-A ball in the Twins system. Celestino saw 503 plate appearances and hit 10 home runs, stealing 14 bases along the way. In addition to the lack of much of a hitting profile, Celestino also lacks seasoning. He saw 33 additional plate appearances in 2019 at high-A and 96 in Double-A this year, everything else on his ledger is in rookie ball from 2016-2018 or this season in the Majors, an almost unfair situation for a hitter of this caliber.
HR Call: Nelson Cruz — Minnesota Twins
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[MLBPAGE]
