Welcome to the MLB DFS Roses of the Day, a column to highlight some MLB picks for FanDuel, DraftKings. and Yahoo.
My name is Chris Randone and if you ever watched The Bachelor or The Bachelorette, then you know getting a rose means everything. It symbolized the guy or girl giving them out has an interest in you. When you get a rose, it means you survive to keep fighting for love.
Well in daily fantasy sports it’s no different. We go through a list of MLB picks deciding who will survive and make the cut into our lineups. These players fight to help us win. A true definition of love. I’ve learned being on the show that you never give out roses just for fun – there has to be a meaning behind it. We’ll take that same approach here. For tonight’s rose ceremony I’ll give my Top Stack, Top Pitcher, Surprise Pitcher, & Surprise Stack MLB Picks of this main slate.
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Atlanta Braves, will you accept this rose?
The Atlanta Braves will face Kansas City Royals left-hander Danny Duffy at home tonight. The Atlanta Braves rank as one of the best left-handed hitting teams in all of baseball at home against righties. The Braves currently rank fifth in ISO (.245) and sixth in wOBA (.355) against southpaws at home. Austin Riley has a .545 ISO at home against left handers with three home runs across 22 plate appearances. Darby Swanson (.359), Ozzie Albies (.333) and Freddie Freeman (.328) rank out as the other top three ISO hitters against lefties for the Braves.
Duffy’s home run to fly ball rate is 13 percent on the season, which ranks second worst of his career. The Braves own a 20 percent home run to fly ball rate that ranks fourth best in the league. Duffy owns an extremely poor 5.19 xFIP and will face a heavy right-handed Braves lineup that has hit 23 home runs at home against left-handers ranking fifth best in all of baseball. Atlanta owns a 5.8 implied run total and grades out as one of the top stacks on Awesemo’s top stack tool.
Merrill Kelly, will you accept this rose?
The Orioles will see Merrill Kelly in a matchup that could favor the Diamondbacks right-hander. Baltimore own’s the second lowest ISO (.138) and third lowest wRC+ (74) on the road against right-handed pitching. The Orioles have hit the fewest home runs in the majors (29) on the road against right-handed pitching. Despite the ballpark, Kelly has pitched better at home than on the road limiting left handed power to one home run all season at home. Kelly will most likely see 6 lefties in the line up which improves Kelly’s potential on limiting power even more against an Orioles offense that has continued to struggle on the road.
The Toss Up
Chicago White Sox or Caleb Smith, who should get the rose?
The Miami Marlins will give the ball to Caleb Smith tonight who owns a 17 percent home run to fly ball rate. The White Sox have fair well against lefties at home this season. Chicago owns the seventh best wRC+ (.117), second best BAPIP (.357), and ninth best wOBA (.343) at home against southpaws. Two cheap price point options who own an above average ISO against lefties are Jose Rondon (.186) and Wellington Castillo (.190).
Caleb Smith has struck out 10.95 batters per nine innings. The White Sox strikeout over 23 percent of the time at home against lefties, ranking ninth worst in the league. Batters John Jay, Yolmer Sanchez, and Adam Engel own less than .100 ISO against left-handers and don’t provide much power upside. Smith brings his 30.6 percent strikeout rate into Chicago and should be a contrarian play that possesses high strikeout upside against a highly owned White Sox team on Draftkings.
MLB Data Central
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MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Express Slates
MLB DFS Top Stack % for FanDuel
MLB DFS Top Stack % for Yahoo
MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Main Slate
DraftKings MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool
MLB DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections