MLB DFS:  Wednesday, July 3rd has one afternoon game (which is the first of a DET at CHW doubleheader), a 6 o’clock game and then a healthy 14 game set at 7pm ET on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel, along with games in Coors Field, Cincinnati, Atlanta and Texas which should make things very interesting in tournaments. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For Wednesday’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click hereÂ
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight DFS Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo
[table id=1201 /]
For such a big slate, I’m finding the pitching options to be less than ideal. Not only do I find the arms unappealing, but they appear to be priced in a way that makes them less appealing. Fun!
Fanduel MLB DFS Picks
FanDuel has the clear top three arms at the top of the salary table. Luckily, there’s a $1000 gap between each spot, so it allows for some flexibility. Chris Sale is, without question, the top pitcher on a slate. While the Blue Jays have plenty of right handed power, I’m not sure Sale is super worried about them. I have no problem paying all the way up for him, but I don’t expect to go too crazy with the exposure because of the next two guys. Walker Buehler is a big favorite against the Diamondbacks. While it’s not a great strikeout matchup, he’s still facing the team with the lowest implied total.
I like Buehler quite a bit, but the ceiling isn’t as high as it normally is. I currently have him as an equal to Mike Clevinger. Speaking of Clevinger, he’s coming off of an absolutely disastrous start. There are going to be major questions about rostering him today. People had the same questions about Blake Snell a few days ago and look how that turned out. Clevinger has top-line stuff at a second-tier price. I’ll have a lot, but I’ll be crossing my fingers all night. His raw talent is too high for a $9000 price tag against the Royals in Kansas City.
DraftKings MLB DFS Picks
DraftKings is similar at the top, although they’ve injected Domingo German in between Buehler and Clevinger. I won’t be playing German. My thoughts on the top three guys still stand. Kyle Gibson has a ridiculous price on DK tonight ($9000), so if you like him, you should take a closer look on FD ($7100). I hate doing it because he scares me, but Chris Archer needs a close look at $7700. The stuff is never in question. When the pieces come together, the outcome can be huge. He’s my favorite arm in the mid-tier.
There aren’t a ton of appealing options to pay down for. Nick Pivetta has strikeout upside, but he’s facing one of the best offenses in baseball in the middle of the summer. That’s not exactly a fun spot. If I’m going into the bottom of the barrel, I might just grab Austin Pruitt at the flat minimum. At $4000, I’ll roster just about anyone, but when that guy gets a date with the Orioles, he’s immediately more appealing. His projected ownership will dictate everything for me.
Yahoo MLB DFS Picks
Yahoo has the same order for the top three arms: Sale, Buehler, Clevinger. Gibson is more reasonably priced, so I see him as a perfect SP2. The mid $30s section has a ton of legit SP2 options. Griffin Canning, Yu Darvish, Archer and Pivetta all have good and bad things going for them tonight. I could see cycling through one of each if I’m playing a 10-max. You can also drop all the way down the $25 Bryse Wilson, but I wouldn’t be waiting in line for him.
Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
