MLB DFS: Thursday, June 27 has a short four game “main” slate, but we do have three games at 1pm and another three at 2pm which should provide a nice workday distraction as we plan our strategies for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For Wednesday’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click this link
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight DFS Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo
[table id=1201 /]
FanDuel DFS Picks
For FanDuel, there are two top options: Stephen Strasburg and Walker Buehler. For me, Buehler is clearly the best. I understand that the game is taking place in Coors, which will probably scare people away, but it really doesn’t matter for me. There’s just way too much upside baked into his price. I actually have Buehler projected for more strikeouts than Strasburg. It’s a higher risk spot, for sure, but that’s what I’m looking for in GPPs. Strasburg is clearly the safer play against the Marlins in Miami. The team is worse, the park is better and the Marlins have the lowest implied total on the slate. I get all of that. The interesting piece is that the projected lineup for the Marlins doesn’t strikeout all that much. While I would feel more comfortable with Strasburg in cash, he slots in behind Buehler for GPPs.
DraftKings DFS Picks
Draftkings makes it even easier. Buehler is $3000 cheaper than Strasburg. $8900 Buehler is a no-brainer. You can even pair the two guys together. $20,800 is a large total for two pitchers, but on this slate they are the two guys you would expect to have the highest scores. That might be what you need. If you’re trying to pay down, you can pair either guy with Griffin Canning. While the A’s have a lot of power, they do lean a bit to the right side with a bit of swing and miss in the heart of the order. It’s kind of a tough sell because of the price, but options are limited. Alex Young is in play at $6300 since the game is in San Francisco, but he’s a bit limited in his ability to go deep into this game. If you can get five innings from Young, you’ll be very happy.
Yahoo DFS Picks
Yahoo flipped the pricing on its head, with Buehler being the most expensive pitcher at $51. Strasburg comes in at just $49 (along with Canning). This makes it easier to prioritize Strasburg. It’s also easier to ignore Canning, since there’s no universe where he should be the same price as Strasburg. If you’re paying down Alex Young is there at $28, which is…fine. Tyler Beede is sitting at the flat minimum, which also has some appeal. You can justify almost every pitcher that takes the rubber in San Francisco because of the extreme park factors.
Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
good shit josh!