MLB DFS: Sunday, June 30th begins at 10am ET with a game between the Yankees and Red Sox in London, an intriguing nine game “main” slate with no Coors Field Extravaganza on DraftKings and FanDuel, but we do get it on Yahoo. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For Sunday’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight DFS Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
A pitcher on today’s slate has the highest strikeout projection of the year. Any guesses?
FanDuel MLB DFS Picks
Max Scherzer is my number one pitcher, and it’s not close. Even at $12500, Scherzer projects as a good value. In my model, Scherzer projects for 11.1 strikeouts, which is the largest I’ve seen this season. It really doesn’t get much better than this. I’ll be playing a lot of Max, regardless of the big salary. The crazy thing is Gerrit Cole looks fantastic, too. Cole is $1300 cheaper than Scherzer on FanDuel and sports a strikeout projection of 9.8 That’s probably the best combo of two pitchers on one slate that I can remember this year. I prefer Scherzer to Cole, but I’m happy to get a bit of both.
After that, things get scary. Blake Snell has not been great in his last two starts, but at $8500 against the Rangers, I’m not sure how you ignore him. There’s simply way too much upside at that price. He has the ability to have a game comparable to Scherzer/Cole, but you can save $2700+ by doing it. That’s hard to pass up. I think the price drop is too aggressive, so I’ll be loading up. I expect these three guys to soak up the majority of my exposure. But if you need some additional savings, Lewis Thorpe is priced at the FanDuel minimum. He has big time strikeout stuff and gets a date with the White Sox. He won’t go deep into the game, but his combo of price and stuff lets you pay up aggressively for bats.
DraftKings MLB DFS Picks
DraftKings tells the same story at the top. Scherzer > Cole. Snell is somehow priced lower on DraftKings than on FanDuel, so feel free to use him as a super SP2 or as the king of paydown SP1s. On a different slate, I would have a ton of interest in Shane Bieber, but he’s priced too close to Scherzer and Cole for me to make the choice. The rest of pitching is rough. I don’t really expect Jesse Chavez to catch lightning in a bottle again. Thorpe is a bit too expensive for what his ceiling is. Jon Lester is kind of interesting, but a summer game in Cincinnati against a team that doesn’t strikeout all that often is rarely a recipe for success. For now, I don’t expect to pay down much further than Trevor Richards at $7300. This is a ballpark play, for sure. There are a lot of scary power bats in the Philadelphia lineup, but I’m hoping the park can help negate that advantage.
Yahoo MLB DFS Picks
Yahoo completes the tripod with regards to my favorites. Scherzer is still ahead of Cole. Snell is still crazy underpriced. Thorpe at $33 is a fantastic pairing with either of the expensive guys or with Snell. It pains me to type this, but if I’m paying all the way down, I think it’s with Jordan Zimmerman. Trust me, I know. He’s not good. He fails more often than he succeeds. Unfortunately, his projection is a slight value on his price, which is all I need to know for decisions like this. The goal is to win the contest, and not to feel the best before it starts.
Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Main Slate FanDuel Fantasy Baseball Picks Today 6/30
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Main Slate DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Picks Today 6/30
Top Batters Tool: FanDuel
Top Batters Tool: DraftKings
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MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Night Slate
MLB DFS Top Stack % for Yahoo
MLB DFS Top Stack % for FanDuel