MLB DFS: Tuesday, June 25 brings us a full 15 game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FantasyDraft and FanDuel. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For Tuesday’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click this link
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight DFS Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo
[table id=1201 /]
So. Many. Pitchers.
FanDuel DFS Pitcher Picks
Max Scherzer faces the Marlins. That’s it. That’s all I should need to say. He’s (arguably) the best pitcher on the slate and he gets to face the worst team in the league. This is as safe as pitching matchups get. I have to take Scherzer before Gerrit Cole because of the talent gap between the Marlins and Pirates. For those that care: REVENGE NARRATIVE ALERT! Make no mistake, Cole is the second best pitcher on the slate, but the Pirates are an awful DFS matchup.
The guy I expect to have the most is the late night hammer, Andrew Heaney. While the Reds aren’t a great strikeout matchup, the risk is completely mitigated by Heaney’s $7300 price. For the upside he offers, he’s just way too cheap. He projects similarly to Shane Bieber, Blake Snell, Madison Bumgarner and David Price, but he’s a massive savings over all of them. The strikeout stuff has tapered off in his past two starts, but that’s not swaying me at all.
DraftKings DFS Pitcher Picks
DraftKings is a tough nut to crack. The Scherzer/Cole thoughts are the same here as they were for FanDuel. After that, I have a core four (Snell, Heaney, Price and Bumgarner) that I can’t really pick between. Official lineups and ownership will dictate the decisions here. Whoever picks up the most ownership will be my top SP2 option in cash. If someone is completely slipping through the cracks, I’ll prioritize that starter in large field GPPs. Each one of those guys are separated by less than one percent of target score probability. They are all projected to strikeout between 6.5 and 6.9 batters. It’s like flipping a coin with four sides.
If you need to free up more salary by getting out of this tier, I think Ross Stripling could be worth a flier at $7700. He has good stuff, but you can’t really expect him to go deep in the game. After Stripling, I think Max Fried deserves a look at $6700. He has more raw talent than the price indicates, and he could easily have a slate breaking performance. As of now, I’m not going dumpster diving, so the Clayton Richard’s and Josh Rogers’ of the world won’t be showing up much, if at all, in my lineups.
Yahoo DFS Pitcher Picks
Yahoo’s pricing is balanced, as per usual. It’s still Scherzer > Cole, but the gap is a bit tighter here than on the other sites. Heaney is back as my favorite SP2 at $39. That’s a solid value for his strikeout upside. This is also an OK spot for Robbie Ray. He’s overpriced on the other two sites, but he’s only $38 on Yahoo, which is pretty appealing for his matchup and park. If I’m paying down, I see two reasonable options: Trevor Richards at $31 and Adbert Alzolay at $25. Richards clearly has a tough matchup with the Nats, but he’s a solid pitcher who could provide a bit of value at that price. Alzolay is certainly scary against a tough Braves offense, particularly if the wind is blowing out in Wrigley, but at the minimum salary, you simply need him to survive. I think that’s worth a shot in a GPP.
Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
