The MLB Slate Starter: MLB DFS Strategy for DraftKings + FanDuel | Monday, 6/14

Welcome to the first edition of the MLB DFS Slate Starter, not just of the year, but ever. After some incredible times covering the NBA streets over the past few months, it’s time to shift gears and focus our attention to some of the larger slates MLB DFS is now the sole provider of. Awesemo still has all the basketball coverage you crave across the site and YouTube channel, but it’s time to get down to the nitty-gritty talking some baseball on the daily. This article is intended to kick off your research process and identify some key MLB DFS picks and concepts that can help take down tournaments and cash games on DraftKings and FanDuel. With 13 games on tap for tonight’s main slate, let’s get right to the DFS MLB strategy.

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MLB DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | June 14

A Sticky Situation

There is one story that’s dominating the headlines over the past two weeks and will continue to do so for months to come: The foreign substance enforcement that is on its way. A memo was sent to all 32 teams detailing a crackdown coming on major league pitchers who get caught using anything to help them better grip or spin the baseball. Whether it’s pine tar, rosin, sunscreen or the infamous “Spider Tack,” sticky substances can help a pitcher become exponentially more difficult to hit and elevate a pitcher’s arsenal by creating more disparity between pitches.

So what does this mean for MLB DFS purposes? Quite simply, gamers need to make some educated guesses on who might have been using anything to doctor a baseball and who wasn’t. And while the fantasy baseball community might argue a larger sample size is necessary before jumping to any conclusions, it is crucial to be ahead of the curve (no pun intended) and decide who may have been doctoring baseballs to accumulate more strikeouts and who hasn’t.

Take Shane Bieber, for instance. Sunday’s performance can be looked at as an outlier or a sign of things to come, as the Indians’ ace gave up a season-high in both hits (10) and earned runs allowed (five). He still racked up eight strikeouts, but the irony of his season-worst outing occurring in the aftermath of this memo has to be at least acknowledged. Over the next few weeks, there could be plenty of other starters that see this sort of significant regression, so it will be pivotal to pay attention to which pitchers see sharp declines in swings-and-misses and increases to contact rates.

Does that mean fade the top end in Tyler Glasnow, who has by far the best strikeout stuff on the slate (36.1% rate) in case he too was doctoring baseballs? That feels a bit extreme, but these are the types of questions to be asking now instead of later. Perhaps a slight boost to offense over pitching is the right way to view things; more specifically — stacking versus elite pitchers just in case. But on a 13-game slate, there is no need to go after Glasnow in this spot, as even a slightly regressed Glasnow is better than every other arm on the board.


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Coors Field Fun

Monday kicks off a week-long home stand for the Rockies, which means seven straight days of Coors Field. And considering it’s the potent Padres offense visiting for the next three days, expect some massive double-digit totals. Be sure to utilize Awesemo’s Top Stack tool, as finding viable pivots off this chalky spot makes a lot of sense on a 13-game slate.

But seeing as it’s over 90 degrees and the wind is expected to blow straight out to center, in no way should this be a full-fade situation. The salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel lean towards the Rockies offense being the easier stack to fit with a top arm, especially with Fernando Tatis Jr. all the way up at a staggering $6,100 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel now. But the guaranteed nine innings of at-bats for a Padres team with pop, a huge park upgrade and the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball (22.4%), contact is going to go a long way against lefty Austin Gomber.

If looking for reasons to fade the Padres, there are two that come to mind quickly: 1) It’s baseball, and 2) Everyone will most likely be playing the exact same righties. At least, that’s the hope, as Eric Hosmer makes for one of the sneakier plays on the board if people aren’t paying attention. Platoon splits can be noisy, but look at his slash line versus lefties compared to righties this season (courtesy of Baseball Savant):

MLB DFS daily fantasy baseball picks draftkings fanduel expert strategy advice today MOnday June 14 2021 top stacks top pitchers home runs points home strikeouts lineup projections ownership rankings

This will be the only extensive conversation on Coors for the week, but it will obviously be a key decision point on each main slate the next few days, so it required the time. Tune into the MLB DFS Strategy Show with Chris Spags and Greg Ehrenberg this morning, as they will break down in full detail their thoughts on this spot and its impact on the overall slate as a whole.

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Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups

  • Matthew Boyd seemed like he’d be a prime SP2 candidate on DraftKings today until looking at the Kansas City weather forecast of 93 degrees with a slight wind blowing out. This is the sort of play to pay particularly close attention to in Awesemo’s Top Pitchers tool, as super-low ownership might make him an intriguing contrarian play.
  • Speaking of prime SP2 candidates on DraftKings, there is a scary one in Marco Gonzales against a strikeout/power-prone Twins team. At only $6,000, he could very well be the cost of doing business with a top offense tonight.
  • Just play Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Check out today’s MLB Strategy Show with Spags and Greg Ehrenberg!

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Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.

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