Tuesday, Aug. 16, boasts a 13-game main slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. There are several aces on the schedule, though most are in less-than-ideal matchups. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (8/16)
Main Slate: Cubs at LHP Patrick Corbin — 4.9 implied runs
The weather is cooler this week in the DC Metro area, but that is not going to be of much consolation for Patrick Corbin. Last year, the veteran southpaw allowed the second-most home runs in the league, and despite a slow start in that category this year, the long balls are really adding up. In his last 16 starts, Corbin has allowed multiple home runs seven times, and there are only three games in this stretch where he kept the ball in the park. Opposite-handed hitters have done the most damage, and we should see the Cubs run out a full complement of righties tonight.
Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom and recent waiver claim Franmil Reyes are the power trio to target. Seiya Suzuki is also a prime option, and any one of these hitters is worth a look in the home run market if you like their odds.
Evening Slate: Athletics at RHP Kohei Arihara — 4.2 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool is flagging the Athletics, of all teams, in their matchup with Kohei Arihara. The 30-year-old made his MLB debut last season, logging 10 starts and finishing with a 6.64 ERA and only 24 strikeouts in 40.2 innings. He also allowed 2.4 home runs per nine innings while pitching to contact. Arihara suffered a .279 ISO in 76 plate appearances against lefties, and he was even worse against same-handed hitters, with a .348 ISO.
It is rare that Oakland is a team to turn to, but they look like the makings of an excellent secondary stack that will not break the bank. Seth Brown and Sean Murphy are an excellent lefty/righty combo in the middle of the order, and Tony Kemp can be tacked on to make a solid mini-stack.
Late Slate: Mariners at LHP Jose Suarez — 4.4 implied runs
Did you know that Seattle ranks third with a 131 wRC+ this season against left-handed pitchers? The lineup has been buoyed by the return of Julio Rodriguez and Mitch Haniger, and it seems for the first time this season everyone is available, including Ty France. Eugenio Suarez is the other batter swinging the stick from the right side of the plate that is worthy of our consideration in this matchup against Jose Suarez.
This has been a rough season for the 24-year-old lefty, and while he is coming off three consecutive scoreless appearances, he still has a 5.12 xFIP and a 9.9% walk rate on the season while allowing above-average power to opposite-handed batsmen. Look to the Mariners on both the main and late slates on Tuesday.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: LHP Robbie Ray at Angels — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,500 | FanDuel $10,300
Tonight, it seems like buying a ticket to the Robbie Ray rollercoaster is going to be popular. It makes sense; Anaheim is an offense that we can continually pick on, as Shohei Ohtani is really the only troublesome hitter against southpaws. Oh, we could give a little credit to Taylor Ward, Jo Adell and Luis Rengifo, but they are only a tick above league average and without Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout providing lineup protection. None of the bottom three hitters in the projected lineup today exceed an .070 ISO against lefties, which makes even the Detroit Tigers look like the 1927 Yankees by comparison.
While Ray is the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, he is far from the most talented pitcher in the player pool. However, the salary and matchup will have gamers flocking to him. This also has the makings of a heavy leverage event, and if Ray sees his popularity above 40%, then an insurance stack with Ohtani, Ward, Adell and Rengifo is not the worst idea.
Secondary Target: LHP Jose Quintana vs. Rockies — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,800 | FanDuel $8,400
The Rockies have been league average against southpaws, thanks to their ability to put out a mostly right-handed lineup. However, aside from C.J. Cron, Brendan Rodgers and Randal Grichuk, the rest of the lineup is relatively anemic. There is no real need to go to Quintana on FanDuel, with him being unlikely to register a quality start (7 in 22 chances), though on DraftKings his favorable salary allows for roster flexibility and he generates enough strikeouts to have a semi-realistic shot at 20 fantasy points.
Wild Card Target: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. Rays — 3.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $10,400
If anyone wanted to swap the Primary and Wild Card assignments of Nestor Cortes and Ray, I certainly would not stand in the way. Cortes got off to a scorching start this season, though his control can get him in trouble with multi-walk outings. This season he has been stellar at suppressing home runs, ceding only 14 in 118 innings while providing just over a strikeout per inning. Tampa Bay is a touch below league average against lefties, and with the Yankees offense behind him, Cortes has a strong shot at a victory tonight.
Additional Opportunities
Dylan Cease has a tough matchup tonight against Houston and is coming in with a 7.5 strikeout prop. The Stokastic MLB Player Props Tool has him for 6.6 strikeouts and a 65% of falling below the eight strikeouts needed for the over. While the -138 to -146 is a stiff ask to get the under, if that rate moves in a favorable direction at all, we should pounce. Cease’s 12.2 K/9 rate is behind only Ohtani, though the Astros have the second-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season at 19.3%.
If this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Edward Cabrera vs. San Diego Padres (Early)
- RHP Sonny Gray vs. Kansas City Royals (Main)
- RHP Zach Plesac vs. Detroit Tigers (Main SP2)
- RHP Justin Verlander at Chicago White Sox (Evening)
- RHP Merrill Kelly at San Francisco Giants (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Darick Hall at RHP T.J. Zeuch (Early)
- Oneil Cruz vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (Main)
- Nelson Cruz vs. LHP Justin Steele (Main)
- Adolis Garcia vs. LHP JP Sears (Evening)
- Dalton Varsho at RHP Jakob Junis (Late)
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
The only venue with weather risk is Pittsburgh, and even then, anything more than a delay is unlikely based on current forecasts. Similarly to what happened in Atlanta last night, pitchers could be at risk of returning to action depending on the length of the delay. Sometimes we get lucky, sometimes we do not.
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