Sunday, Aug. 21, gets things going with a featured slate with at 1:35 p.m. ET, followed by a fun four-game late-afternoon set. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (8/21)
Main Slate: Reds at RHP Zach Thompson — 4.2 implied runs
This has been a rough season for Zach Thompson of the Pirates, not to be confused with rookie southpaw Zack Thompson of the Cardinals. The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is seemingly broken when looking at the results from Thompson’s last six appearances. In these outings, he has lasted just 24.1 innings while allowing 26 runs against a meager 18 strikeouts. Things could have been worse, as he has allowed 48 baserunners in this stretch, with just four home runs.
Joey Votto is having season-ending surgery on his rotator cuff, so Mike Moustakas is back in our lives. While Moose Tacos has been an empty shell of his former self this season, he should be hitting cleanup and is at the minimum salary on DraftKings and just $2,300 on FanDuel. The true trio to target will be Jake Fraley, Jonathan India and Kyle Farmer at the top of the order. They will be popular, but it also knocks out our middle infielder requirements and leaves the four main power positions open for differentiation from the field.
Mid-Afternoon Slate: Twins vs. RHP Kohei Arihara — 5.1 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool thinks that Kohei Arihara is more of a batting practice option than an actual MLB pitcher. Against 205 batters in The Show, the former Nippon Ham Fighters hurler has allowed a .253 ISO to lefties and a .346 ISO to same-handed batsmen. Byron Buxton has an eye-popping .316 ISO in his last 416 plate appearances against right-handed hurlers, and he is easily paired with switch-hitter Jorge Polanco, who does his best work from the left side of the plate. For full stacks, Carlos Correa and Max Kepler are the obvious choices. Differentiation is easily found with a little home run or extra-base hit hunting in Jake Cave and Nick Gordon at the bottom of the order.
Late Slate: Padres vs. LHP Patrick Corbin — 5.5 implied runs
Hat tip to Josiah Gray, who helped keep the Padres in check last night, though he did allow a league-leading 32nd home run to former teammate Josh Bell. This afternoon, San Diego gets a crack at Patrick Corbin, who allowed the second-most home runs in the league last year. Though Corbin has “only” allowed 22 home runs this season, he leads the league with 59 since the beginning of 2021 and there is a strong possibility he will surge to second place this season prior to Labor Day, unless he heads to the injured list with a “tired arm” or some other merciful cover story.
Bell, Manny Machado and Wil Myers all have had recent success against Corbin, and that is the trio to target, along with phenom Juan Soto. Brandon Drury has been lights out since retooling his swing, and he can be used to complete a full stack. For differentiation, the bottom of the order with Myers, catcher Jorge Alfaro and shortstop Ha-seong Kim make for a fine discounted differentiation stack while still providing access to getting in on the fun against Corbin.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Shohei Ohtani at Tigers — 2.8 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $11,800
There are some clear top-end options to target on Sunday, with a very sketchy bottom of the barrel. If the weather cooperates as it should, Shohei Ohtani is the preferred top-shelf play. It has been detailed in this space multiple times per week this season just how dreadful the Detroit offense has been against right-handed hurlers. The Tigers have the third-highest strikeout rate at 24.8%, their .105 ISO is a league low, and their 70 wRC+ makes even the Nationals seem frisky. Across his last 950 batters faced, Ohtani has a wicked 32.2% strikeout rate and a 14.4% swinging strike rate. Enjoy!
Secondary Target: RHP Brandon Woodruff at Cubs — 5.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $10,000
Brandon Woodruff is coming in at an even $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel today with his matchup against the Cubs in Chicago. Even after dealing away most of their best hitters over the last couple seasons, the Cubbies still have been a tick above league average with their scoring efficiency against right-handed pitchers. However, the tradeoff for above-average pop is the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league. Sunday’s projected lineup has a two-year-trailing strikeout rate of nearly 26% against right-handed hurlers, while Woodruff boasts a 29.7% combined strikeout rate over this same timeframe.
Late Target: RHP Luis Castillo at Athletics — 2.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $10,800
Luis Castillo is easily the standout pitcher on the four-game afternoon slate, and while he will be wildly popular, there are plenty of ways to differentiate lineups with eight teams in the player pool. In three starts for Seattle — two against the Yankees and one against the Angels — Castillo has been sublime, with a 2.18 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 24 strikeouts in 20.2 innings. The former Cincinnati ace has always been above average with strikeouts, and one advantage of moving to the American League is that very few hitters have stood in the box against him. For Oakland, only Tony Kemp (0-for-3) and backup catcher Stephen Vogt (3-for-6, 1 double, 2 walks) have previously faced Castillo. The A’s have a lineup full of pesky hitters, but the only real threats are Sean Murphy and Seth Brown.
Additional Opportunities
Nick Pivetta has a 5.5 strikeout prop for his matchup in Williamsport, Pa., against the Baltimore Orioles in the Little League Classic. The Stokastic MLB Player Props Tool has him for 5.2 strikeouts and a 60% chance of failing to record the half dozen whiffs it will take to reach the over. In limited MLB action, Muncy Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field has played slightly favorable to pitchers and is far from a bandbox. However, only twice in his last 10 starts has Pivetta reached six strikeouts. Yes, this play is likely to be nip and tuck to the wire, but considering there is a slim chance of a weather delay as well as the top half of the Baltimore lineup being made up of disciplined batters, this is a good spot to plant our flag. However, if this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Dylan Cease at Cleveland Guardians (Early)
- RHP Charlie Morton vs. Houston Astros (Main SP2)
- LHP Ryan Yarbrough vs. Kansas City Royals (Main SP2)
- LHP Sean Manaea vs. Washington Nationals (Afternoon)
- RHP Dean Kremer vs. Boston Red Sox (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Eloy Jimenez at RHP Aaron Civale (Early)
- George Springer at LHP Nestor Cortes (Main)
- Jo Adell at LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (Main)
- Brendan Donovan at RHP Merrill Kelly (Afternoon)
- Anthony Santander vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (Late)
Latest MLB DFS Content
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- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Nolan Arenado (April 15 Main Slate)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Similar to Saturday, there is low to medium risk for several of the East Coast and Midwest venues. Keep an eye on the forecasts closer to first pitch for increased accuracy. Tonight, ESPN Sunday Night Baseball is featuring the Little League Classic, which will be played in Williamsport, Pa. Muncy Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field has typical MLB dimensions, and it has also been utilized by the local college team as well as by the MLB Draft League, which is a summer league for collegiate players.
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