Expert UFC DFS Fight Analysis, Tips & Picks for UFC Vegas 34: Cannonier vs. Gastelum Saturday, 8/21 | DraftKings & FanDuel

Vinc Pichel vs. Austin Hubbard

A fight taking place in the men’s lightweight division, Vinc Pichel battles Austin Hubbard as a -115 favorite. Now 38 years old, Pichel enters this bout with a 13-2 professional record. Only taking two fights since 2019, Pichel defeated both Roosevelt Roberts and Jim Miller in that span. On the other side, the 29-year old Hubbard enters this bout with a 13-5 professional record. Trading losses throughout his career, Hubbard most recently lost to Joe Solecki via submission before defeating Dakota Bush earlier this year. On the feet, neither fighter is particularly aggressive. Pichel lands 3.20 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.28. Similarly, Hubbard lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.61. Hubbard is slightly more aggressive on the feet, but both fighters lack strong pace. On the mat, Pichel is a black belt in BJJ. He lands 3.83 takedowns on average with 60% accuracy. Hubbard has struggled against takedowns at various points in his career. He has been taken down multiple times in half of his Octagon appearances, giving him 58% takedown defense overall. Hubbard has a background in wrestling, but seldom uses it to his advantage. He averages 0.81 takedowns with 66% accuracy. Pichel only defends takedowns at 20%, but he welcomes fights to the mat with his background in BJJ. Pichel has now out-grappled Roberts and Miller in back-to-back fights, giving him a distinct edge over Hubbard on the mat. Hubbard does have some of the best cardio in the division, giving him a sneaky weapon late in fights. Unlike other fights on this card, this bout doesn’t look as likely to finish early. Hubbard has nine decisions in 18 professional fights, while Pichel has five decisions in 15 professional fights. All five of his decisions occurred in his eight fights inside the UFC. Bookmakers peg this fight at -250 to reach a decision overall. For DFS purposes, Pichel and Hubbard are both appropriately priced at $8,200 and $8,000. This fight is also a strong target due to grappling exchanges and poor takedown defense on both sides. Draftkings in particular rewards grapplers, making the victor of this fight likely to score well. Pichel holds the superior grappling credentials and gets it done here. 

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Vinc Pichel ($8,200)

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval 

Kicking off the main card, Alexandre Pantoja faces Brandon Royval in the men’s featherweight division. A -170 favorite, the 31-year old Pantoja enters this fight with a 23-5 professional record. 2-2 in his most recent fights, Pantoja’s losses came to Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo at the top of the division. Most recently, Pantoja defeated Manel Kape in February. On the other side, Royval enters this fight at age 28 with a 12-5 professional record. Royval is 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France. His only loss came to Brandon Moreno last November. Since then, he has been on the shelf with a torn labrum. Now making his return, Royval took nine months to rehab the injury. A former national champion in Muay Thai, Pantoja lands 4.30 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.39. He will be at a four-inch height disadvantage here, but his 67-inch reach falls narrowly below Royval’s 68-inch reach. Pantoja is also one of the most powerful strikes in this entire division. On the other side, Royval is also a muay thai striker. He lands 3.77 significant strikes per minute, with 2.88 strikes absorbed. On the mat, both fighters have experience in jiu jitsu. Pantoja lands 0.94 takedowns on average with 35% accuracy. Royval lands 0.79 himself with 100% accuracy. However, Royval has 53% takedown defense, allowing multiple takedowns to Elliott and Moreno. Pantoja only defends takedowns at 68% himself. He allowed a pair of takedowns against Askarov and Kape in his most recent fights. However, he displayed excellent scrambling ability against Kape, who managed just 25 seconds of control time. Looking at finishing potential, Pantoja has eight with each by knockout and submission. However, he also has 12 fights ending in decisions. Similarly, Royval has three knockouts and eight submissions. However five of his 17 fights ended in a decision. Altogether, this fight is -135 to reach a decision. For DFS, Pantoja looks like one of the top targets on the slate. At $8,900, he is the cheapest fighter favored at least at -170. This fight projects to spend most of the time standing up, but the aggression on both sides makes this a strong fight to target. Royval is cheap enough to consider as a punt play, but Pantoja is the official pick. 

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Alexandre Pantoja ($8,900)

Luis Saldana vs. Austin Lingo

A fight taking place in the men’s featherweight division, Luis Saldana faces Austin Lingo as a -120 favorite. Saldana enters this bout at age 30, with a 15-6 professional record. Now 2-0 in the UFC, Saldana has a win over Vince Murdock on Dana White’s Contender Series and Jordan Griffin in his true debut. On the other side, Lingo enters this bout at age 27 with a 8-1 professional record. Lingo is 1-1 in the UFC, losing his debut to Youssef Zalal before knocking off Jacob Kilburn earlier this year. On the feet, Saldana comes from a boxing background. He lands 4.39 significant strikes, while absorbing just 1.79. Lingo also has a diverse striking background, including muay thai and taekwondo. He lands 3.57 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.17. Both fighters have striking defense at or above 62%. Looking at the ground game, neither fighter is particularly aggressive on the mat. Saldana has never attempted a takedown, but he allowed four against Griffin. This puts his takedown defense at 42%. Conversely, Lingo landed a single takedown in each of his two appearances. However, he allowed seven combined takedowns in those two fights, despite his 76% takedown defense. Lingo appears to hold an edge on the mat, but this fight projects to spend most of the time standing. As for finish potential, this fight is -115 to reach a decision. Four of Lingo’s nine fights reached a decision, including both at the UFC level. Conversely, only four of Saldana’s 21 fights have reached the decision point. As close as they come, the line has moved in Lingo’s favor to this point. At $7,900, this ability to wrestle and strike makes him a solid underdog. Neither fighter has shown a ton at the UFC level, but this fight has the potential to score well. Lingo is the official pick as the underdog here. 

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Austin Lingo ($7,900)

Brian Kelleher vs. Domingo Pilarte

Taking place in the men’s bantamweight division, Brian Kelleher faces Domingo Pilarte as a -170 favorite. Kelleher enters this fight at age-34, with a 22-12 professional record. Now 6-5 in the UFC, Kelleher recently defeated Ray Rodriguez before dropping his most recent bout to Ricky Simon earlier this year. This will be Kelleher’s first fight at bantamweight since taking on Ode Osbourne in January of 2020. On the other side of this fight, the 31-year old Pilarte enters this fight with an 8-2-1 professional record. Now 1-2 in the UFC, Pilarte’s most recent bout against Journey Newsome ended in a no contest. Newsome originally won the fight via knockout, but subsequently tested positive for marijuana. Prior to that, Pilarte has a win over Vince Morales on Dana White’s Contender Series and a loss to Feleipe Colares on his profile. Pilarte hasn’t fought since February of 2020, giving him nearly 18 months off. On the feet, Kelleher will be the more aggressive fighter. He lands 3.92 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.47. Kelleher has actually lost the striking battle in eight of his 11 UFC fights, contributing to his negative striking ratio. Similarly, Pilarte lands 2.04 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.69. He has also lost the striking battle in all three of his UFC fights. Perhaps an x-factor here, Pilarte holds a six-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage over Kelleher. Kelleher has been susceptible to leg kicks at various points in his career. This massive size advantage may only exacerbate this weakness. On the mat, Pilarte has a credentialed background in jiu jitsu. He lands 2.00 takedowns on average with 42% accuracy. Kelleher only defends takedowns at 59%, but he allowed six of those takedowns to Simon. Outside of that fight, Kelleher has allowed five combined takedowns in his ten other UFC fights. A brown belt in jiu jitsu himself, Kelleher lands 1.00 takedowns on average with 25% accuracy. Pilarte has been taken down twice at the UFC level, but his 75% takedown defense still checks out. Looking at finish potential, four of Pilarte’s 11 fights ended in a decision. Conversely, Kelleher has just nine decisions in 34 professional fights. Overall, this fight is +165 to reach a decision. Similar to Pantoja, Kelleher is a strong target based on price at $9,000. This fight is slightly less aggressive than the Pantoja fight on the feet. However, it brings more finish potential and more grappling exchanges. At $9,000, Kelleher is still a strong target. Conversely, Pilarte’s size advantages give him a path to victory as a slate-breaking underdog. Kelleher is the official pick. 

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Brian Kelleher ($9,000)

Bea Malecki vs. Josiane Nunes 

Moving to the women’s bantamweight division, Bea Malecki faces Josiane Nunes as a -155 favorite. Malecki enters this fight at age 29 with a perfect 4-0 record. Now 2-0 in the UFC, she holds victories over Duda Santana and Veronica Macedo. Her competitor, Nunes enters this fight at age 27 with a 7-1 professional record. She is set to make her UFC debut after an extensive career on the regional scene. Notably, she holds a victory over Juliana Araujo and her only loss came to Talia Santos. On the feet, Malecki is a former muay thai champion. She lands 6.78 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 6.14. She also possesses excellent 62% striking defense. Malecki only has one knockout, despite her strong striking background. In this bout, she will have a seven-inch height and reach advantage over Nunes. Similarly, Nunes has a background in muay thai, but she doesn’t have any UFC data at this point. In her eight fight career, she has six knockout victories. Nunes is excellent in the clinch and often uses pure forward pressure to get fights where she wants them. On the mat, Malecki has never landed a takedown inside the UFC. However, she has two submission wins, including her victory over Santana in her UFC debut. Nunes hasn’t shown great takedown defense and looks to cede the grappling advantage to Malecki here. Nunes has been controlled on the mat at various points in her career and this still looks like a weakness. Overall, this fight projects to spend most of the time in a standing position. Only one of Malecki’s four fights have gone to a decision, while two of Nunes’ eight reached the decision point. Overall, this fight is -135 for a finish. At $8,600, Malecki is one of the more interesting fighters on this card. She has better odds than more expensive fighters in Trevin Jones and Jared Cannonier. Likely to draw less ownership, Malecki makes an excellent target in GPP’s. Conversely, the aggression on Nunes looks solid, but she is overpriced as a $7,600 underdog at +135 to win. Malecki is the official pick. 

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Bea Malecki ($8,600)

William Knight vs. Fabio Cherant

Another fight taking place in the men’s light heavyweight division, William Knight faces Fabio Cherant as a -165 favorite. Knight enters this fight at age 33, with a 9-2 professional record. Knight is 3-1 in the UFC, but dropped his most recent fight against Da-Un Jung via decision. On the other side, Cherant is 26 years old and 7-2 as a professional. After initially losing to Aleksa Camur on Dana White’s Contender Series, Cherant rattled off three straight wins to book his ticket into the UFC. In his debut, he lost to Alonzo Menifield on short notice via submission earlier this year. On the feet, Knight appears to have a distinct edge. While he isn’t the most aggressive, Knight lands 3.56 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.56. Knight is very accurate with his strikes at 74%, but his 34% striking defense leaves much to be desired. He will also cede three inches in height and reach to Cherant. Fortunately, his opponent focuses on grappling. Cherant doesn’t have much cage time logged, but he lands 1.00 significant strikes for every 6.73 absorbed. He lost the striking battle 44-7 against Camur on the Contender Series. Still, Cherant has shown solid striking on the regional scene. He Is known primarily as a counter striker, but he will throw a diverse array of strikes including kicks. His striking defense remains the biggest question mark to his standup game. On the mat, Cherant looks like the superior fighter. While he has yet to attempt a takedown at the UFC level, Cherant has five of his seven professional wins coming via submission. Knight has a wrestling background and averages 2.56 takedowns per bout himself. However, Knight has just 40% takedown defense, allowing at least one takedown in every UFC fight to date. Jung took Knight down eight times in their most recent fight, but Cherant’s grappling isn’t on that level just yet. Still, Cherant’s potential path to victory could come from a strong performance on the mat. Overall, this fight is +165 to reach a decision. Only two of Cherant’s nine fights have reached a decision, while two of Knight’s 11 have reached the decision mark. For DFS, this fight is a strong target on finish potential alone. The line has moved significantly against Knight since it opened, making him the most overpriced fighter on the card at -165. Similarly, Cherant is an excellent underdog at $6,800 with a legitimate chance for a stoppage. Knight is still the official pick, but splitting exposure to this fight in DFS makes a lot of sense. 

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: William Knight ($9,400)

Roosevelt Roberts vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

A fight taking place in the men’s lightweight division, Roosevelt Roberts faces Ignacio Bahamondes as a -145 favorite. Roberts enters this fight at age 27 with a 10-2-1 professional record. After defeating Brok Weaver last May, Roberts dropped his two most recent bouts against Jim Miller and Kevin Croom. However, the Croom bout was later overturned after Croom tested positive for marijuana. On the other side, Bahamondes enters this fight at age 23 with an 11-4 professional record. Bahamondes is 1-1 in the UFC. After punching his ticket with a win over Edson Gomez on Dana White’s Contender Series, Bahamondes dropped his true debut against John Makdessi via split decision. Bahamondes competed at welterweight in his debut, but has since moved down to lightweight. On the feet, Bahamondes is a black belt in karate, with a background in muay thai. He doesn’t have a large sample in the UFC, but he lands 7.91 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 6.40. In his most recent fight, he narrowly lost the striking battle against Makdessi 124-112. Conversely, Roosevelt is a far more reserved striker. He lands 3.03 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.27. Both fighters are big for this division, but Bahamondes has a two-inch reach advantage on Roberts. On the mat, Roberts is a brown belt in BJJ. He lands 1.75 takedowns per bout with 53% accuracy. Bahamondes has 100% takedown defense, but all of his defended attempts came from his Contender Series bout against Gomez. Bahamondes attempted four takedowns himself against Makdessi, but he failed to land any of them. Roberts has 58% takedown defense, but he hasn’t been taken down in three straight fights. Looking at finish potential, Bahamondes has eight of his 11 professional wins occurring via knockout. He has also been submitted twice, which looks like Roberts’ best path to victory. Roberts has five submissions and three knockouts in his ten wins. Overall, this fight is -150 to reach a decision. A very close projected fight, Roberts looks appropriately priced at $8,400. This fight remains a tricky evaluation from Bahamondes small sample size. Roberts holds multiple advantages here, but his lack of aggression may make him a fighter to leave out in low risk contests. Still viable for large field GPP’s, Roberts is the official pick. 

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Roosevelt Roberts ($8,400)

Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Sasha Palatnikov

A fight taking place in the men’s welterweight division, Ramiz Brahimaj faces Sasha Palatnikov as a -140 favorite. Brahimaj enters this fight at age 28 with an 8-3 professional record. He is 0-1 in the UFC, losing his debut to Max Griffin and nearly losing his ear in the process. On the other side, Palatnikov is 32 years old with a 6-3 professional record. Palatnikov is now 1-1 in the UFC with a win over Louis Cosce and a submission loss to Impa Kasanganay in his most recent fight. On the feet, Brahimaj showed solid volume. He lost the striking battle 74-45 against Griffin before the third round stoppage. Palatnikov has a striking background in karate, boxing, and kickboxing. While his sample size in the UFC is small, Palatnikov lands 7.58 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 6.15. With his diverse striking background, he should hold an edge on the feet. On the mat, Palatnikov averages 0.82 takedowns per bout, landing his only attempt against Cocse. Meanwhile Palatnikov has allowed three total takedowns in his time with the UFC, putting his defense at 80%. Brahimaj didn’t attempt a single takedown against Griffin, but he stopped the only attempt used against him. Brahimaj is a BJJ brown belt and has all eight of his professional wins coming via submission. He has a solid wrestling game to complement his BJJ as well. Brahimaj holds the advantage on the mat. As for finish potential, bookmakers peg this fight at +130 to reach a decision. Brahimaj has two decisions in his 11 professional fights. Similarly, Palatnikov has three decisions in nine professional fights. Unlike Brahimaj, all of Palatnikov’s stoppages came via knockout. At $8,500, Brahimaj actually enters this fight slightly underpriced. Palatnikov looks likely to bring the pressure offensively and Brahimaj’s takedowns also likely lead to a solid score. Brahimaj is the official pick here. 

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Ramiz Brahimaj ($8,500)