With UFC returning to action this weekend, UFC Vegas 32 features Cory Sandhagen taking on T.J. Dillashaw in the main event. This weekly Fight Analysis article will analyze every matchup on the card. Below, you will find data-driven analysis for each matchup and a pick to win. This, along with Awesemo’s MMA DFS projections, Top Fighters Tool, and UFC DFS ownership projections will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
UFC Vegas 32: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw MMA DFS Picks
Cory Sandhagen vs. T.J. Dillashaw
Headlining UFC Vegas 32, Cory Sandhagen faces T.J. Dillashaw in the men’s bantamweight division as a -195 favorite. Sandhagen is 14-2 in his professional career, losing to only Jamall Emmers and current champion Aljamain Sterling. In his most recent fights, he knocked out both Marlon Moraes and Frankie Edgar. On the other side, former champion Dillashaw has not fought since 2019 after failing a drug test. Dillashaw is 12-4 in the UFC, with his most recent fight ending in a knockout loss to former champion Henry Cejudo. On the feet, Sandhagen is an accomplished kickboxer, reflected in his 6.85 significant strikes landed per minute and 59% striking defense. Likewise, Dillashaw is a black belt in Muay Thai. He lands 5.37 significant strikes per minute with 65% striking defense. Both fighters love to implement kicks and diverse striking combinations. This is especially true for Sandhagen. Sandhagen also has a five-inch height and three-inch reach advantage over Dillashaw. On the mat, Dillashaw is a former college wrestler at the Division I level. He averages 1.68 takedowns per bout. This looks like a solid advantage over Sandhagen, who has 30% takedown defense. Sandhagen lands 1.07 takedowns himself, but Dillashaw is the more aggressive grappler. Sandhagen has been taken down in every fight that made it past the 1:30 mark in the UFC. However, he has excellent scrambling ability and a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, which allows him to work back to his feet quickly. Sandhagen has three wins by submission and six by knockout in his 14 professional victories. Similarly, Dillashaw has three submission wins and eight knockouts in 16 total wins. For DFS purposes, this fight features a high output and high likelihood for a finish. Affordably priced at $8,800 and -115 to finish this fight inside the distance, Sandhagen should be one of the first fighters into lineups. Likewise, Dillashaw presents more risk as the +165 underdog. However, his high output also gives him a good chance of hitting the optimal lineup in a win. Sandhagen is the official pick, but this fight should be circled for DFS lineups either way.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Cory Sandhagen ($8,800)
Kyler Phillips vs. Raulian Paiva
Another matchup in the men’s bantamweight division, Kyler Phillips looks to continue his four-fight winning streak over replacement fighter Raulian Paiva. A -275 favorite, Phillips recently defeated Cameron Else and Song Yadong. Similarly, Paiva will look to continue with a two-fight winning streak after previously defeating Mark De La Rosa and Zhalgas Zhumagulov in a controversial decision. Paiva has not fought in just over a year after suffering a knee injury last fall and backing out of his previous May booking due to a bad weight cut. Because of that, Paiva will now be fighting up at 135 pounds. Phillips has a very diverse MMA background, including training in judo, Brazilian jiu-jitsu (Brazilian jiu-jitsu), among other disciplines. Phillips lands 5.32 significant strikes per minute, while defending them at 61%. Paiva is far less developed as a striker at this point. He has a negative striking ratio, landing 4.46 significant strikes for every 4.89 absorbed. This will be a significant step up in competition for Paiva. Phillips possesses solid footwork and erratic movements as a striker. Out-striking Yadong, Phillips has a clear advantage on the feet. On the mat, Paiva has a judo background, but it has not shown up at the UFC level. His only takedown occurred on the Contender Series. With Phillips’ 71% takedown defense, Paiva looks unlikely to be the aggressor in grappling exchanges. Conversely, Phillips averages 2.88 takedowns per bout with 63% accuracy. Paiva has 80% takedown defense, but he was taken down a pair of times by Zhumagulov, Rogerio Bontorin, and Kai Kara-France. The more dangerous striker, Phillips has five of his nine professional wins coming via knockout. Paiva has been knocked out once in his career, but an overwhelming number of his fights end in decisions. He has 20 career victories but only seven of those involved a finish. For DFS, this fight projects for an above average pace, but bookmakers peg it at -190 to reach a decision. As a -275 favorite, Phillips makes sense at the top of lineups. He is slightly more aggressive than a comparably priced fighter like Sijara Eubanks. Paiva is a fairly aggressive striker but looks like the inferior fighter across the board. Phillips gets it done here and sets himself up for a ranked opponent in the near future.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Kyler Phillips ($9,200)
Darren Elkins vs. Darrick Minner
In the men’s featherweight division, Darren Elkins faces Darrick Minner as a +130 underdog. Elkins has a 25-9 professional record. Fighting some of the toughest competition in the division, Elkins recently halted a four-fight losing streak with a win over Eduardo Garagorri. On the other side, Minner is 26-11 in his career. Minner 2-2 in the UFC and a winner of two-straight over T.J. Laramie and Charles Rosa. Neither fighter is particularly aggressive on the feet, but Elkins lands 3.50 significant strikes per minute to Minner’s 3.24. However, he also absorbs 3.08 significant strikes with 52% striking defense, compared to Minner’s 1.40 significant strikes absorbed and 43% striking defense. Elkins does have a three-inch height and two-inch reach advantage over Minner, which could come into play during striking exchanges. While this somewhat lacks appeal on the feet, both fighters come from a wrestling background and wrestled at the college level. Elkins lands 2.70 takedowns on average with 33% accuracy. Likewise, Minner lands 3.00 takedowns on average with 62% accuracy. Both have questionable takedown defense at 58% for Elkins and 60% for Minner. Minner has only allowed two takedowns in the UFC, and both came against Grant Dawson before getting submitted. Elkins generally possesses the wrestling advantage over his opponents and has not allowed a takedown in three straight fights. However, he allowed three takedowns to Ricardo Lamas and two to Alexander Volkanovski, showing superior wrestlers can take advantage of his weaknesses. Minner recently out-grappled Rosa. However, Rosa tried to work submissions off his back rather than scramble or try to reverse position. Elkins is a much better scrambler. Volkanovski controlled Elkins for just over three minutes, while Lamas did not even reach the three-minute mark. Interestingly, both fighters will relentlessly hunt submissions. Elkins averages 1.2 per bout to 3.6 for Minner. Elkins has 13 of his 25 professional wins ending in a finish and eight of those occurred via knockout. Minner is a submission specialist with 22 of his 26 professional wins coming via submission. However, Minner has been submitted eight times and knocked out another two. Elkins has fought the tougher competition, while Minner has lost to non-UFC level opponents multiple times. Still, these are two fighters at drastically different points in their careers. In DFS, the grappling exchanges will make or break this fight. Elkins will likely keep the pace high making this a decent fight to target for DFS. With that said, Minner is expensive compared to his implied odds. At -155, he has the same implied odds as Miranda Maverick and only slightly better odds than Ian Heinisch. Conversely, Elkins looks underpriced at $7,600, making him an interesting underdog to consider. Elkins presents a tough matchup for Minner, and the underdog gets it done here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Darren Elkins ($7,600)
Miranda Maverick vs. Maycee Barber
Moving to the women’s flyweight division, Miranda Maverick fights Maycee Barber as a -155 favorite. Maverick has a 9-2 professional record and enters this bout on a five-fight winning streak. She is currently 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Liana Jojua and Gillian Robertson. Similarly, Barber is just 23 years old with an 8-2 professional record. She is 4-2 in the UFC, but she dropped her last two fights against Roxanne Modafferi and Alexa Grasso. On the feet, Maverick has a background in Muay Thai and lands 6.00 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.85. Her striking involves excellent combinations and a diverse array of strikes, including kicks and elbows. Similarly, Barber is a 2nd degree black belt in karate. She lands 5.21 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 3.00. Maverick has 61% striking defense to Barber’s 50%. Barber likes to throw big shots, which gives her knockout power, but leaves her open to absorbing significant damage. On the mat, Maverick comes from a wrestling background and now has a brown belt in jiu-jitsu. She lands 2.25 takedowns on average with 75% accuracy. However, this may be a tough ask against Barber, who lands 1.44 takedowns herself and defends them at 80%. Barber has only allowed one takedown at the UFC level. Meanwhile, Maverick has just 50% takedown defense, allowing two against Robertson in her most recent bout. One x-factor in this fight could be cardio. Maverick has displayed the ability to keep up high output through three rounds. Barber has faded on occasion as fights wear on. For finishing potential, Maverick has five of her nine wins coming via submission, while Barber has five of her eight wins coming via knockout. Neither fighter has been finished in their careers. Interestingly, Barber has the better in the distance prop at +300 despite being a +135 underdog here. For DFS, this fight is a strong target, with both fighters utilizing high output both on the feet and on the mat. Maverick is a particularly strong favorite on this card. The line continues to move in her favor, while her price is constant at $8,400. Conversely, Barber looks a bit overpriced at $7,800. Because she is more likely to finish this fight, Barber is still a fairly strong consideration as an underdog. The official pick is Maverick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Miranda Maverick ($8,400)
Pinpoint The Top Fighters for UFC DFS Awesemo’s UFC DFS Top Fighter Tool for DraftKings and FanDuel synthesizes our MMA DFS Projections and Ownership Projections to help you build competitive UFC DFS tournament lineups. The Top Fighters Tool is designed to help you simplify this information to compare a player’s ownership with their chances of being a top-scoring fighter on that slate.Mickey Gall vs. Jordan Williams
Kicking off the main card, Mickey Gall faces Jordan Williams in the men’s welterweight division. A +150 underdog, Gall is 6-3 in his professional career. Gall has traded wins and losses over the last five years, most recently defeating Salim Touahri before losing to Mike Perry last June. Gall has not fought in a year after suffering an injury before his scheduled fight against Miguel Baeza last September. On the other side, Williams enters this fight at 9-4-1, with an 0-1 record in the UFC after losing to Nassourdine Imavov in his debut. Williams previously fought on Dana White’s Contender Series three times. After knocking out Tim Caron, he was suspended for a failed drug test in his first Contender Series appearance. He subsequently lost to Ramazan Kuramagomedov before finally punching his ticket against Gregory Rodrigues. Williams will be moving down to welterweight for this bout after previously competing at middleweight. This is a notable clash of styles. Gall struggles against superior competition on the feet. He lands 2.55 significant strikes, while absorbing 3.65. His 42% striking defense stands out as one of the worst marks on the card. Conversely, Williams is known primarily for his striking. He lands 6.07 significant strikes per minute, but he also absorbs 5.77 with his horrific 35% striking defense. Williams and Gall have been knocked out twice and once respectively. Williams is the embodiment of the “kill or be killed” mentality. On the mat, Gall is a credentialed grappler with a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He lands 1.15 takedowns on average with 26% accuracy. However, Gall still showed cracks in his game against Perry. Despite his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Perry still outwrestled Gall. Williams has 88% takedown defense, but he allowed a takedown to both Imavov and Kuramagomedov. However, those came from 15 combined attempts. Williams lands 0.98 takedowns on average himself with 50% accuracy. Gall has just 40% takedown defense and cannot be trusted on the mat after his performance against Perry. Gall has five of his six professional wins occurring via submission. Meanwhile, Williams has seven of his nine professional wins coming via knockout. For DFS, this fight is +120 to reach a decision. Williams is appropriately priced at $8,700 as a -170 favorite and +150 to win this fight in the distance. Conversely, Gall has not shown as much upside from a volume perspective, Williams forward pressure could dictate the overall pace here, but Gall would have to significantly step up his volume for an elite score. For that reason, Williams is the official pick and the preferred DFS target.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Jordan Williams ($8,700)
Punahele Soriano vs. Brendan Allen
Headlining the preliminary card, Punahele Soriano takes on Brendan Allen as a -115 favorite in the men’s middleweight division. Soriano enters this fight with a perfect 8-0 record. Also 3-0 at the UFC level, Soriano knocked off Dusko Todorovic earlier this year after previously defeating Oskar Piechota and Jamie Pickett. On the other side, Allen enters this fight with a 16-4 professional record. After suffering his first loss to Sean Strickland at the UFC level, Allen rebounded with a submission win over Karl Roberson this April. Interestingly, all four of Allen’s losses came against UFC competition even though three took place on the regional scene. Soriano trains out of Xtreme Couture with fighters like Dan Ige and Brad Tavares. He lands 4.46 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 2.86. Conversely, Allen lands 3.35, while absorbing 4.19. Despite his three-inch height and reach advantage here, Allen’s 39% striking defense stands out as a glaring weakness against Soriano. However, Allen’s striking has looked better in recent fights after changing his camp to Sanford MMA. On the mat, Allen is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He lands 1.73 takedowns on average, while attempting 2.1 submissions per bout. Soriano has never been taken down at the UFC level, but he has also never faced a takedown attempt. Conversely, Soriano averages 2.60 takedown attempts himself with 66% accuracy. Allen only defends takedowns at 50%, but his pedigree in jiu-jitsu should leave Soriano wary of takedown attempts. So far, Soriano has five wins by knockout and two by submission in his eight professional fights. Similarly, Allen has five knockouts and nine submissions in 16 wins. Allen has been knocked out before, creating a clear path to a Soriano victory. With Soriano’s forward pressure and Allen’s aggressiveness with submission attempts, this fight has plenty of finish potential. Bookmakers currently peg it at +200 to reach a decision. This fight does not have the same projected pace as other fights. However, the high likelihood of a finish and attractive pricing keep it front and center for DFS. In particular, Soriano looks like a strong value as the more aggressive fighter overall. However, Allen has the superior body of work and will get the nod as the slight underdog here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Brendan Allen ($8,000)
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Ian Heinisch vs Nassourdine Imavov
Back to the men’s middleweight division, Ian Heinisch faces Nassourdine Imavov as a -150 favorite. Heinisch enters this fight with a 14-4 professional record. However, He is just 1-3 in his most recent fights. While he defeated Gerald Meerschaert last summer, he has struggled with some of the division’s notable names. His most recent losses occurred against Derek Brunson, Omari Akhmedov, and Kelvin Gastelum. On the other side, Imavov is 9-3 in his professional career. He is 1-1 at the UFC level with a win over Jordan Williams and a loss to Phil Hawes earlier this year. On the feet, Heinisch has a background in Muay Thai and lands 3.28 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.79. On the other side, Imavov trains out MMA Lab in Paris. He lands 4.17 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 2.03. Imavov has a four-inch height and three-inch reach advantage over Heinisch, but pressure fighters like Heinisch have given Imavov problems in the past. On the mat, both fighters have a background in wrestling. Heinisch competed at the college level and lands 1.13 takedowns on average. Imavov also has wrestling experience, landing 0.50 takedowns on average. Both fighters possess 60% takedown defense overall, potentially bringing this fight to the ground. Imavov allowed four takedowns in his recent fight against Hawes, getting controlled for over 11 minutes. Overall, Imavov has three wins by knockout and four by submission in his nine professional victories. Heinisch also has five knockouts and two submissions, but his fights have been more likely to end in decisions. Heinisch has fought significantly more difficult competition to this point. He also moved his camp to Sanford MMA in preparation for his bout. Because neither fighter is particularly aggressive on the feet, the DFS potential relies on the grappling exchanges. Heinisch looks a bit overpriced when fighters like Maverick and Minner are more aggressive and available in the same price range. Imavov may actually be the superior value play here at $7,700. However, the underwhelming volume makes this a fight to potentially avoid in DFS, outside of large field tournaments. Heinisch is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Ian Heinisch ($8,500)
Adrian Yanez vs. Randy Costa
In the men’s bantamweight division, Adrian Yanez faces Randy Costa as a -220 favorite. Yanez enters this fight with a 13-3 professional record. 3-0 in the UFC, Yanez has now defeated Brady Huang, Victor Rodriguez, and Gustavo Lopez. Similarly, Costa is 6-1 professionally and 2-1 in the UFC. After losing his debut to Brandon Davis, Costa rebounded with wins over Boston Salmon and Journey Newson. The Newson fight occurred last September giving him almost a year off after his bout against Trevin Jones was cancelled earlier this year. This fight looks like a pure standup war. Yanez is an elite boxer and lands 4.69 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.31. On the other side, Costa has a background in kickboxing. He lands 7.88 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.26 himself. Costa has a two-inch height and three-inch reach advantage over Yanez. Both fighters utilize good volume and footwork, but Yanez has a speed advantage. On the ground, Costa has a high school wrestling background, but he has never landed a takedown at the UFC level. He does have 100% takedown defense, but he only defended one attempt. Yanez has also never landed a takedown, but he has defended five attempts to this point. Looking at finishing potential, Yanez had eight of his 13 professional wins coming via knockout. Likewise, all six of Costa’s professional wins involved knockouts. Neither fighter has taken on elite competition, so this makes for an interesting, high-paced fight overall. Bookmakers currently peg the fight at +200 to reach a decision. Additionally, if the fight does reach the third round, Yanez is far more experienced late in fights. With volume and a -135 in the distance prop working in his favor, Yanez looks like one of the top expensive options on the slate at $9,000. Similarly, Costa’s pace and finishing power stand out among the heavy underdogs on this card. Yanez gets it done and continues his ascent of the men’s bantamweight division here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Adrian Yanez ($9,000)
Julio Arce vs. Andre Ewell
Sticking with the men’s bantamweight division, Julio Arce faces Andre Ewell as a -200 favorite. Arce enters this fight with a 16-4 professional record. At 4-2 in the UFC, he defeated Julian Erosa before dropping his most recent bout to Hakeem Dawodu via split decision. That fight occurred back in November 2019, giving Arce almost two years off. Arce will now be dropping to 135 for this fight. On the other side, Ewell has a 17-7 professional record and a 4-3 record in the UFC. After two-straight wins over Jonathan Martinez and Irwin Rivera, Ewell dropped his most recent bout against Chris Gutierrez earlier this year. Arce is an accomplished striker, training primarily in boxing and kickboxing. He lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.87. Arce is a hyper-aggressive striker and does not land more only because of his poor 36% striking accuracy. However, his 67% striking defense paces the entire card. Ewell is also primarily a striker, with a background in boxing. Ewell lands 4.42 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.25. He has the pure boxing advantage, but kicks and elbows tend to give him trouble. On the mat, Ewell is the less aggressive grappler. He lands 0.29 takedowns on average with 66% accuracy. Ewell only has two career takedowns, but he defends them at 70%. He has allowed one takedown in each of his last two fights, but he has struggled with wrestlers at times. Similarly, Arce averages 0.58 takedowns on average with 30% accuracy. However, he has exactly one takedown in each of his last three fights. Arce has only allowed one takedown in his UFC career, boasting 93% takedown defense. Extremely well-rounded, Arce has four wins by knockout and five by submission in his 16 professional wins. He has only been finished one time, which occurred against Brian Kelleher via submission on the regional scene. Ewell has seven knockouts and four submissions among his 17 professional wins. Unlike Arce, Ewell has been finished three times, with three occurring via submission. However, bookmakers peg this fight at -200 to reach a decision. In DFS, Arce is one of the more overpriced fighters on the card. At $9,100, his lower output and poor finish potential make him a potential fighter to avoid. On the other side, Ewell likely enters the optimal lineup with a win just because of his price. However, his volume is also poor, making this a fight to potentially avoid altogether. Arce is the official pick here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Julio Arce ($9,100)
Sijara Eubanks vs. Elise Reed
In the women’s flyweight division, Sijara Eubanks faces UFC newcomer Elise Reed as a -350 favorite. Perhaps fighting for her job, Eubanks is 6-6 in her career. While that record does not look impressive, Eubanks has fought some elite competition within the UFC. She debuted with a victory over current title challenger Lauren Murphy, but she has recently fallen back on a two-fight losing streak. She dropped her two most recent bouts against Ketlen Vieira and Pannie Kianzad. Conversely, Reed makes her UFC debut with a 4-0 record at age 28. However, her strength of schedule does not come close to Eubanks’. She is also jumping a weight class, while Eubanks is dropping down. This gives Eubanks significant size advantages over Reed. On the feet, Eubanks lands 4.52 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.69. She often uses her size to grind against opponents, holding them against the cage. Reed does not yet have a sample size at the UFC level, but she is known primarily as a striker. She is a black belt in taekwondo and utilizes a lot of kicks. She has two knockout victories among her four professional wins, but the step up in competition looms large here. Eubanks has two knockout wins herself, but ten of her 12 total fights ended in decisions. Eubanks is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, despite her lack of submission wins. Eubanks lands 1.88 takedowns on average with 46% accuracy. She has landed multiple takedowns in six of her eight professional fights. She has also allowed takedowns against some of the better wrestlers in the division. Vieira and Ladd both landed multiple takedowns on Eubanks. As the larger fighter here, Eubanks 65% takedown defense should hold up if Reed tries to get this to the ground. Reed displayed decent grappling on the regional scene, but these advantages remain with Eubanks. For DFS, Eubanks is appropriately priced at $9,300 as a -350 favorite. However, other expensive fighters are more aggressive with a higher likelihood for a finish. While she brings some opportunity cost, she is still a solid target and the official pick here. Reed is best saved for large field GPPs.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Sijara Eubanks ($9,300)
Diana Belbita vs. Hannah Goldy
Kicking off UFC Vegas 32, Diana Belbita faces Hannah Goldy in the women’s strawweight division. Currently 13-6 in her career, Belbita is 0-2 in the UFC with losses to Molly McCann and Liana Jojua. Conversely, Goldy is 5-1 in her career and 1-1 in the UFC. She won her debut over Kali Robbins before dropping her most recent bout against Miranda Granger. Belbita is an extremely aggressive striker. She lands 5.81 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 6.49. Similarly, Goldy lands 6.53 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.90. Perhaps an x-factor here, Belbita has a three-inch height advantage and a seven-inch reach advantage over Goldy. This should give her an edge in the clinch if she can close the distance against Goldy. On the mat, Belbita lands 1.69 takedowns on average with 66% accuracy. Goldy has never landed a takedown herself, but she has 66% takedown defense. Robbins took her down twice in her debut on Dana White’s Contender Series. However, she defended four other attempts in that fight. Belbita has 64% takedown defense, but she allowed five takedowns to McCann in her debut. She was also submitted quickly by Jojua after taking her down in her most recent fight. Jojua is not an elite grappler, highlighting a major weakness in Belbita’s game. Fortunately, Goldy does not look likely to take this fight to the mat. Looking at finishing potential, Belbita has six knockouts and four submissions in her 13 professional wins, while Goldy has just one knockout win in five victories. Belbita has been submitted four times, but this outcome looks unlikely against Goldy. A low-level women’s fight, this bout has solid pace, but looks tough to predict. Bookmakers also peg it at -280 to reach a decision. Price and striking aggression keep this fight relevant for DFS. Both fighters are -110 here, making Belbita the superior play at $7,900. With the size advantage, Belbita is also the official pick. Overall, this fight is middling for DFS play.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Diana Belbita ($7,900)
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