PlayLine Preview: Henry Cejudo vs. TJ Dillashaw Presents: UFC Fight Night – $5,000 GTD – Brute Force ($1,250 to 1st!)

Players: Henry Cejudo, TJ Dillashaw, Paige VanZant, Rachael Ostovich, Greg Hardy, Allen Crowder

Stats: Strikes thrown, Strikes landed

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Today, we’ll be projecting the expected strikes thrown and strikes landed for two of the six featured fighters, Henry Cejudo and TJ Dillashaw, in the “UFC Fight Night – $5,000 GTD – Brute Force ($1,250 to 1st!)“ PlayLine contest.

Your PlayLine predictions are scored according to the chart below. It’s really simple. The closer your PlayLine is to the athlete’s actual performance, the more points you get. The more points you get, the better your chances of winning!

You will receive PlayLine points each time the featured athlete registers a stat that you predicted will occur. Once the athlete’s actual stat total in a particular category goes over your prediction, you will no longer receive additional per stat PlayLine points.

By: Eric Lieberman


Good afternoon #PlayLineArmy,

Eric Lieberman here to provide you with a solid strategic starting point for your PlayLine MMA submissions. Specifically, the ones where you have to predict the strikes thrown and landed for each fighter.

You may think this is a shot in the dark due to the unpredictability of the potential outcome of any fight; as you know every dog has their day. Then, there is the other saying that it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog. And in this case, the statistical weaponry you are bringing represents the size of the fight in YOU, dawg! I’m getting way too metaphorical now, so let’s jump in.

The best place to begin is by accessing a stat centric MMA website such as, FightMetric. Here, you can find a fighter’s stats, such as, their strikes thrown and landed per minute, as well as, their accuracy and past performances. It’s what you do with this information that is important.

When tasked with the PlayLine to predict strikes thrown and landed, these two data points would be the primary focus from a historical data perspective. Equally, if not more relevant, is the expected duration of the bout. A good starting point here is the Vegas over/under of the number of rounds for the fight.

To begin, we must identify the projected ranges of the number of strikes thrown and landed, so calculating a potential average will be useful.

For strikes landed:

  1. Source the average number of strikes landed per minute, per fighter.
  2. Source the average number of strikes absorbed per minute, per fighter.
  • Obtain an average between the figures sourced in i) and ii)

This will give you an idea of how many strikes they will land per minute. Do

  1. Then, source the projected over/under on the fight length, and multiply the projected length of the fight in minutes by their average strikes landed.

For strikes thrown:

Since strikes thrown is a less common stat universally kept, we have less historical data to consider. The best place to turn here is striking accuracy. If the fighter’s average strikes landed per minute is 5 and their accuracy is 50%, then we know they throw 10 strikes per minute. Now multiply by the projected length of the fight in minutes.

Cejudo vs Dillashaw:

Let’s take a look at the upcoming bout between Henry Cejudo and TJ Dillashaw, which is  projected to go the distance given their weight class and fighting styles. Nonetheless, the over/under for rounds is set at 4.5, which equates to 22.5 minutes of action.

From                                                                              Cejudo             Dillashaw

Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM) 3.42 5.38
Striking Accuracy 42% 41%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM) 2.60 2.94


Strikes landed for Cejudo:                                         Strikes thrown for Cejudo:

3.42 + 2.94 / 2 = 3.18/min.                                         71.55 / 0.42 (42%) = 170 strikes thrown

3.18 x 22.5 mins = 71.55 strikes landed


Strikes landed for Dillashaw:                                     Strikes thrown for Dillashaw:

5.38 + 2.60 / 2 = 3.99/min                                          89.78 / 0.41 (41%) = 219 strikes thrown

3.99 x 22.5 mins = 89.78 strikes landed


And there you have it; a logical and statistical starting point to build your PlayLine’s around. Keep in mind these are merely projections and in the fight game, one shot can change it all.

Good luck everyone!!!

Josh Engleman
Josh is Contributor for where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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