The UFC will be live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with a new main event featuring Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson, with the co-main featuring Khamzat Chimaev vs. Kevin Holland. Below are some MMA DFS pick and analysis with the help of Stokastic’s UFC expert projections . Let’s see what’s on tap for UFC 279 and find some of the best UFC DFS pick for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson MMA DFS Picks
Top-End Pick: Jailton Almeida | DraftKings: $9,500 , FanDuel: $22
Almeida got straight to work under the UFC banner by ground-and-pounding Danilo Marques in his UFC debut. Then, Almeida submitted Parker Porter in May and he is currently riding an 11-fight winning streak. I expect this will be another dominant performance for Almeida, finding the finish early round one. Stokastic UFC DFS projection have Jailton Almeida as the top projected fighter on the slate with 86% win odds and 94.91 projected points on DraftKings. The Top Fighters Tool is also high on him, giving him 33.3% chance of being in the top six on this card
Top-End Pick: Hakeem Dawodu | DraftKings: $8,900 , FanDuel: $19
Dawodu is a sharp striker with the technique to land big shots against Julian Erosa, who tends to get hit due to poor defense. Dawodu’s UFC debut did not go as planned, as he was submitted by Danny Henry in 2018. But Dawodu rebounded nicely with five straight victories before running into Movsar Evloev. In his most recent fight, he had an impressive showing in a decision victory over Michael Trizano in February. I expect Dawodu will find the chin of Erosa often, with Erosa’s lack of defense. He has 30% win odds according to Stokastic’s MMA DFS projection.
Mid-Priced Pick: Ion Cutelaba| DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: $18
Cutelaba will be fighting for his promotional life. He has not won a fight since 2018, beating Devin Clark via unanimous decision. He has been inside the octagon with some of the division’s best. With that experience and Johnny Walker looking like he does not belong after his last two bouts, I will be siding with Cutelaba. I expect Cutelaba to look to grapple from, where he will be able to put Walker in bad positions and finish the fight with his nasty ground-and-pound. He has 67% win odds according to Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections, with a 53% chance for a knockout. The Top Fighters Tool is high on Cutelaba as well, giving him a 37.8% chance of being in the top six on this card.
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Value Pick: Nate Diaz  | DraftKings: $6,600 , FanDuel: $16
At this price tag Diaz is a lock in all formats, especially when he is in the main event with five rounds to work with. Ferguson is fading while taking on considerable damage in his most recent fights. I expect Diaz will be looking to make a statement, in what could be his last walk to the octagon. Stokastic’s UFC expert projections give him 40% win odds, with a 38% chance for a knockout.
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