UFC 280 Picks: TJ Dillashaw, Aljamain Sterling, Charles Oliveira Top Plays

On Saturday, the UFC will make its annual visit to the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. UFC 280 is packed full of action, with some of the best matchups all year. There is a championship doubleheader featuring the vacant lightweight title in the main event of Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev. Then the co-headliner is an electrifying bantamweight title match between Aljamain Sterling and T.J. Dillashaw. Below are some MMA DFS picks with the help of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections. Let’s see what’s on tap for UFC 280.

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MMA DFS Picks: UFC 280 Oliveira vs. Makhachev

Muhammad Mokaev ($9,600) vs. Malcolm Gordon ($6,600)

Muhammad Mokaev

Age: 22
Height: 5-foot-7
Weight: 125 lbs.
Reach: 70 ins.
Record: 8-0-0
Striking Accuracy: 58%
Betting Odds: -1600

Mokaev is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Charles Johnson at UFC London. Prior to that, he recorded a 58-second submission win in his UFC debut against Cory Durden. Mokaev is a former IMMAF junior champion who racked up an impressive 22-0 amateur record. He has a mauling style with dangerous grappling chops that can finish his opponent. Mokaev is seasoned enough to control Malcolm Gordon on the mat and should be able to avoid any opportunistic submission attempts. He has two wins via knockout, three via submission and three via decision.

Malcolm Gordon

Age: 32
Height: 5-foot-7
Weight: 125 lbs.
Reach: 71 ins.
Record: 14-5-0
Striking Accuracy: 60%
Betting Odds: +750

Gordon started his UFC career winless, with a submission loss to Amir Albazi in his UFC debut and a knockout loss to Su Mudaerji, both losses coming in Round 1. He has rebounded nicely, with a unanimous decision win over Francisco Figueiredo and a TKO victory over Denys Bondar. Gordon will look to get this fight to the mat, but Mokaev can hold his own and should be able to stuff most of Gordon’s takedown attempts.

The pick on DraftKings and FanDuel is Mokaev. Mokaev’s sharp striking, smothering wrestling chops and durability will be too much for Gordon to withstand. Mokaev has 90.9% win odds and a 62.2% chance for a knockout, according to Stokastic’s .

UFC DFS Pick: Muhammad Mokaev via Second-Round KO/TKO

Petr Yan ($9,300) vs. Sean O’Malley ($6,900)

Petr Yan

Age: 29
Height: 5-foot-7
Weight: 135 lbs.
Reach: 67 ins.
Record: 16-3-0
Striking Accuracy: 59%
Betting Odds: -310

Yan will be stepping back into the cage following his spilt-decision defeat to Aljamain Sterling in April. Before that, Yan dominated Sterling in their first matchup in 2021 but lost his belt after being disqualified for throwing an illegal knee late in the fifth round. Yan is well rounded, with technical boxing, great footwork, high output, pinpoint combinations and huge power in his hands. He tends to start slow as he looks to find his rhythm, which could cause problems in a three-round bout with a striker like Sean O’Malley. Yan is the current No. 1 contender of the division and has impressive wins over Jose Aldo and Cory Sandhagen. His slow starting will cost him in Round 1, so Yan will need to win Rounds 2 and 3 or look for the finish to win this matchup against the talented O’Malley.

Sean O’Malley

Age: 27
Height: 5-foot-11
Weight: 135 lbs.
Reach: 72 ins.
Record: 15-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 62%
Betting Odds: +230

O’Malley is the No. 11 bantamweight contender. His previous fight ended in a no-contest due to an eye poke that rendered Pedro Munhoz unable to continue. After a leg injury led to his controversial loss to Marlon Vera, O’Malley has won three straight fights, all via knockout. O’Malley has some of the best striking in the game, and his pinpoint accuracy is dangerous for anyone who enters the Octagon to face him. He will work angles, keep distance, use head movement and has outstanding footwork. This being a three-round fight favors O’Malley because of Yan’s tendency to start slow, and O’Malley should be able to take Round 1. Then he will just need to avoid Yan’s power to secure Round 2 or 3.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is O’Malley. O’Malley’s volume, pinpoint accuracy, effectiveness and footwork will secure a decision victory.

UFC DFS Pick: Sean O’Malley via Unanimous Decision

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Aljamain Sterling ($8,500) vs. T.J. Dillashaw ($7,700)

Aljamain Sterling

Age: 33
Height: 5-foot-7
Weight: 135 lbs.
Reach: 71 ins.
Record: 21-3-0
Striking Accuracy: 59%
Betting Odds: -178

Sterling is a highly skilled fighter who excels because of his athleticism and decision making in the Octagon. Sterling is one of the best wrestlers in the game, and he showed off his skills in taking down Petr Yan and controlling him to win rounds. He is getting better after every fight, which he showed in the second meeting with Yan. Sterling will need to get Dillashaw’s respect on the feet early, which will open takedowns for Sterling to ride his opponent like a backpack. Sterling will look to get this fight to the ground early and try to wear on Dillashaw while looking to lock in a submission.

T.J. Dillashaw

Age: 36
Height: 5-foot-6
Weight: 135 lbs.
Reach: 67 ins.
Record: 18-4-0
Striking Accuracy: 48%
Betting Odds: +138

Dillashaw is a notoriously strong striker who has some of the most vicious finishes in the UFC. He is coming off a huge win against Cory Sandhagen in 2021 and will need to keep this fight on the feet to have a chance. Dillashaw is an aggressive fighter, which is one of his biggest strengths and weaknesses. He will strike with the intent of hurting his opponent, which will leave him vulnerable at times in the Octagon. Although Dillashaw has elite grappling chops, he will need to keep this fight standing to have a shot against Sterling.

The pick on DraftKings and FanDuel is Sterling. Sterling’s wrestling, striking, timing and ability to read his opponent will seal the victory. Stokastic’s give Aljamain Sterling 61.7% win odds.

UFC DFS Pick: Aljamain Sterling via Third-Round Submission

Charles Oliveira ($7,800) vs. Islam Makhachev ($8,400)

Charles Oliveira

Age: 33
Height: 5-foot-10
Weight: 156 lbs.
Reach: 74 ins.
Record: 33-8-0
Striking Accuracy: 62%
Betting Odds: +142

Oliveira was stripped of his lightweight championship in May for missing weight in his second defense. But after an impressive submission of Justin Gaethje in the first round, he earned an immediate shot at the vacant title against Islam Makhachev. Oliveira is currently riding an 11-fight winning streak, with impressive finishes over Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier. Out of the 41 professional fights Oliveira has had, he has only seen the scorecards four times. Oliveira is one of the best grapplers in the game and holds the UFC record for most submission wins (16). Oliveira’s striking, pressure, strong Muay Thai and dangerous game from his back will cause problems for Makhachev early.

Islam Makhachev

Age: 30
Height: 5-foot-10
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 70.5 ins.
Record: 22-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 71%
Betting Odds: -184

Makhachev is currently the No. 4 lightweight contender and is riding a 10-fight winning streak. Makhachev made his UFC debut in 2015 and was stopped in his second fight when Adriano Martins knocked him out in the first round. Since then, Makhachev has been unstoppable while working with former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Makhachev will bring his smothering sambo style to the Octagon in hopes of walking out as the new UFC lightweight champion.

The pick on DraftKings and FanDuel is Oliveira. Oliveira’s devastating striking, elite jiu-jitsu and overall game will overwhelm Makhachev en route to Oliveira finding another impressive finish.

UFC DFS Pick: Charles Oliveira via Second-Round Submission.

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