UFC DFS Picks, Projections, Ownership & Predictions for UFC 261 on DraftKings & FanDuel

UFC 261 may be headlined by Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal 2, but there are two other title fights and plenty of others to keep an eye on. This weekly Fight Analysis article will break down and analyze every matchup on the card. Below, you’ll find my data-driven analysis for each match and a pick to win; this info, as well as using Awesemo’s expert MMA DFS projections, Top Fighters Tool and UFC DFS ownership projections will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.

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UFC DFS Picks: Usman vs. Masvidal 2

Usman vs. Masvidal

This is a rematch between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal. I think this will be a more competitive fight than the first encounter, but I still favor the champion to walk away victorious. Usman has been refining his striking under Trevor Wittman, and it was on full display in his most recent performance against Gilbert Burns. This recent love for his striking could lead to a closer fight, allowing Masvidal to excel in moments. Masvidal will need to improve his takedown defense, and punish Usman on the feet. In totality I favor the champion to incorporate takedowns, control time, and significant strikes, edging Masvidal out over five.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Usman ($9,400)

Zhang vs. Namajunas

The co-main event of the evening features a pivotal matchup between Weili Zhang and Rose Namajunas. I always mention prioritizing main-event, co-main event, and title fight underdogs, as they can easily pull the upset. I have a gut feeling that this fight could be the difference maker for a lot of lineups. Initially, I liked all three champions, but I am determined to get different. If I view all of the title fights, Namajunas is my favorite underdog. Namajunas has a high skillset, a championship resume, and a grappling X factor to solidify rounds. I will be overexposed to Namajunas because of her grappling potential, but this is not an easy matchup whatsoever. Zhang can test Namajunas in all areas, but this is the ultimate test against a sniper striker with an ace up her sleeve. Split your exposure, and don’t be afraid of rostering Namajunas for the upset.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Namajunas ($7,200)

Shevchenko vs. Andrade

Next is an interesting title fight between Valentina Shevchenko and Jessica Andrade. I am extremely high on Shevchenko, and think she is a generational talent for WMMA. Shevchenko is a well-rounded fighter with dynamic striker, and an underrated grappling game to dominate her opponents. She is facing a bullish opponent in Andrade who will be aggressive from the opening bell. The salary on Andrade is extremely cheap given her typical striking volume, and high amplitude takedown ability, making her an excellent value despite the difficult matchup. I foresee this being a Shevchenko dominant performance though, making her an intriguing play at $9500.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Shevchenko ($9,500)

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Weidman vs. Hall 2

Next up is another rematch between Chris Weidman and Uriah Hall. I am extremely interested in this bout from a DFS perspective because there are clear paths to victory for both gentleman. Weidman has strong grappling and potential to break the slate at $7900, but I don’t like this matchup. It’s tough to trust Weidman’s chin at this point in his career, as I foresee Hall landing a knockout blow. Hall’s lack of volume makes him unappealing to most people, but I’m ok with taking a shot on such a talented striker.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Hall ($8,300)

Smith vs. Crute

This next fight between Anthony Smith and Jimmy Crute seems like a nice GPP matchup. This is a big step up in competition for Crute, as he is facing a former title challenger and a man with 50 professional fights. Throughout Smith’s UFC tenure he has made some incredible highlights, and also moments of lethargic performances. I am interested to see how Crute handles the test, but I will have exposure to both fighters. I think there is plenty of potential for Crute to accumulate takedowns, control time, and significant strikes en route to a finish or decisive victory. On the contrary, I believe Smith is an appealing underdog who needs to be considered due to his well-rounded game, experience and ability to overcome adversity. I am leaning towards a Crute decisive victory, but a Smith upset wouldn’t surprise me.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Crute ($8,900)

Brown vs. Oliveira

In an exciting welterweight clash, Randy Brown takes on Cowboy Oliveira. Over the years there have been many versions of Oliveira, and despite an exciting style, it seems like fighters are developing gameplays to expose the reckless Oliveira. Brown is a very technical striker who likes to mix it up and wrestle at times, and I have been impressed with Brown throughout his career. I understand that Brown has suffered some knockout defeats, but I am valuing his skillset over his liability. I think Brown will beat Oliveira in all facets of the game, and I think he is a very sneaky play at $8700. Brown will have the cardio advantage in this matchup, and expose Oliveira once again.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Brown ($8,700)

Grant vs. Sekulic

This next fight might be the most volatile on the card, as Dwight Grant takes on Stefan Sekulic. Both men have unknowns surrounding them as Sekulic is looking to return following a PED suspension, and Grant is looking to rebound from a knockout defeat. This matchup is a weird one, but I do like some of the film on Sekulic. Not only can Sekulic strike well like Grant, but he can mix up his attack and wrestle. I think Sekulic will need to have a grappling gameplan if he wants to be successful. It’s hard to know how much Sekulic’s success was due to PEDs, but I like him as an underdog at $7000.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Sekulic ($7,000)

Allen vs. Roberson

Up next is a clear GPP fight between Brendan Allen and Karl Roberson. I am intrigued with this matchup as both men have clear paths to victory, and could break the slate. Allen has a significant grappling advantage on the mat, but is looking to rebound from a knockout defeat to Sean Strickland. I don’t like how he is matched up against a powerhouse striker in Roberson. Despite Roberson’s deficiencies in the wrestling department, he is a physical freak with devastating KO power. Roberson will need to punish Allen on the feet if he wants to win, and Allen will need to implement takedowns early if he wants to win. I recommend splitting exposure, but I will lean towards Roberson’s striking potential, and value at $7800.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Roberson ($7,800)

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Connelly vs. Sabatini

In a surprising bout, Tristan Connelly takes on Pat Sabatini. Most of you recognize Connelly for upsetting the over-hyped Michel Pereira, but I’m excited to see him against a well-rounded martial artist in Sabatini. Both men are strong grapplers, but Sabatini could be flying under the radar in this matchup. I have been impressed with Sabatini’s fight footage, and I think he could put on a nice performance here in his UFC debut. I like the striking and strong jiu-jitsu game of Sabatini to outclass Connelly throughout.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Sabatini ($8,800)

Batgerel vs. Natividad

I feel like this fight could have one-sided ownership, as Danaa Batgerel is taking on Kevin Natividad. Batgerel is coming off an impressive performance and knockout finish over Guido Cannetti and Natividad was recently knocked out against Miles Johns. Recency bias is easy to predict, and often reflects leverage positions on the slate. This could be one of them with the overlooked Natividad, who comes from a strong camp and is a well-rounded martial artist. Obviously there are liabilities with rostering a fighter who was just knocked out, but it’s important to recognize leverage positions. I think Natividad is talented in all areas of the fight, and could make things interesting if he resorts to his wrestling. I’m ok with taking chances, especially on lighter weight-classes.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Natividad ($7,700)

Rong vs. Vargas

Next is Zhu Rong taking on Rodrigo Vargas. Admittedly I haven’t been impressed with Vargas on tape, but I have been very impressed with his opponent Rong. I think Rong has potential in the UFC, but his price is tough for this slate. In addition to the expensive $9100 salary, there are risks with rostering a relatively unknown fighters making his UFC debut. I think Rong will outclass Vargas in multiple areas, I just don’t know if he pays off that price tag.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Rong ($9,100)

Molina vs. Aori

A flyweight clash between Jeff Molina and Qileng Aori could be exciting from bell to bell. Both fighters enjoy striking, and will mix in takedowns throughout to solidify rounds. This is an evenly matched contest, where both men can have moments, but may nullify each other for the large majority. Molina comes from Glory MMA, and is a volume striker who isn’t afraid to hunt submissions. Aori has the power and experience advantage in this matchup, which is why I am tempering DFS expectations for either. I will side with Aori but will have exposure to both fighters and their cheap salaries.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Aori ($8,200)

Carnelossi vs. Liang

Kicking off UFC 261 is a 115-pound clash between Ariane Carnelossi and Na Liang. I have been impressed with Carnelossi in her footage because she is an aggressive striker, with solid jiu-jitsu to rely on. That jiu-jitsu will be important in this matchup against the submission hunter Liang. Carnelossi will need to execute her aggressive combinations whilst avoiding the dangerous submission specialist. Armbar from guard is always a possibility in WMMA, but I think Carnelossi will be too much for Liang throughout. I believe in Carnelossi’s power, aggression and jiu-jitsu. We could be looking at an extremely sneaky target here at $8600, and I’m ok with being overexposed.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Carnelossi ($8,600)

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Author

PeteTheHeatMMA

Pete "The Heat" Rogers Jr is a professional mixed martial artist and MMA enthusiast. Pete has recorded the Fastest Knockout in Bellator's featherweight history at 11 seconds and the Fastest Submission in Bellator's Featherweight History at 37 seconds. Pete is a long-time DFS player and plans to grow the MMA DFS industry.