Welcome UFC fans, women’s bantamweights Holly Holm and. Ketlen Vieira headline this weekend’s UFC Vegas 55 card live from the Apex in Las Vegas. Below I’ll give my MMA DFS picks and analysis with the help of Awesemo’s expert projections. Just a reminder that the octagon is smaller than normal, and that tends to favor wrestlers and pressure fighters who tend to engage constantly. Let’s dig in.
UFC Vegas 55: Holm vs. Vieira MMA DFS Picks
Top-End UFC Picks
Jailton Almeida | DraftKings: $9,100, FanDuel: $22
Almeida was scheduled to fight Maxim Grishin at light heavyweight, but unfortunately Grishin dropped out. That has created this extremely interesting matchup. Almeida will now be fighting Parker Porter at heavyweight. Porter is currently riding a three-fight winning streak, although his opponents were not the caliber of Almeida. That said, Almeida is currently riding a 10-fight winning streak, with five via knockout and five via submission. For UFC DFS lineups today, Almeida is a strong play due to finishing abilities. But if you’re building 20-plus lineups, make sure to have a few Porter shares because of his knockout power. Awesemo’s MMA projections give Almeida 84% win odds with a 64% chance for a knockout.
Almeida was one of the top three fighters in the Awesemo MMA DFS optimizer projections today. He’s a top UFC Pick for this slate. Check out all of our free fantasy MMA DFS Picks and projections in our DraftKings UFC DFS Cheat Sheet and FanDuel UFC DFS Cheat Sheet.
Mid-Range UFC Picks
Chidi Njokuani | DraftKings: $8,700, FanDuel: $22
Njokuani is a highly skilled kickboxer who looks to engage his opponents early, and as mentioned above, the smaller octagon should favor Njokuani’s style. His natural athleticism, movement, and height should assist Njokuani in keeping this fight on the feet, where he will break and damage his opponent early. However, Njokuani’s weakness is exiting his exchanges with a high chin, which makes him vulnerable to getting dropped. Fortunately, Dusko Todorovic has struggled in recent fights to implement his striking game. For MMA DFS purposes, Njokuani is a solid play with a high ceiling due to his finishing abilities. Awesemo’s UFC projections give Njokuani 68% win odds with a 48% chance for a knockout.
Omar Morales | DraftKings: $8,400, FanDuel: $16
Morales is a dangerous kickboxer who will use nasty kicks to damage his opponent. He will implement wide hooks in his striking game that, when landed clean, can send his opponents to the mat. Morales is a well-rounded fighter who will bring forward pressure while delivering devastating kicks to weaken his opponents. Fortunately, Morales is back at lightweight where he is undefeated and I expect him to possibly get his first UFC finish via knockout. Awesemo’s MMA projections give Morales 57% win odds with a 38% chance for a knockout.
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UFC Value Picks
Chase Hooper | DraftKings: $7,600 , FanDuel: $11
Hooper will be looking to get back in the win column at UFC Vegas 55 tonight. He will want to get this fight to the mat early because Hooper has shown below average striking on his feet thus far in his career. Hooper is extremely dangerous once the fight hits the mat, no matter the position. Felipe Colares is well-rounded and will bring heavy pressure while looking for the opportunity to shoot. However, taking Hooper down could lead to Hooper finding the back of Colares and locking in a submission early. Hooper is a risky value play for MMA fantasy players today but could payoff his low salary nicely with a submission victory. Awesemo’s MMA projections give Hooper 38% win odds at a low price point.
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