UFC DFS Picks: UFC Fight Night Egar vs. Munhoz

Hello UFC fans. This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Frankie Edgar vs. Pedro Munhoz. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $400,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fighters I feel have the most upside and value. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks analysis

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UFC DFS Core Plays

Mariya Agapova | DraftKings: $9,300, FanDuel: $19

Agapova’s last three fights have all came by stoppage. She has knocked out three opponents and submitted four others. She is an aggressive and dangerous fighter, and she lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute. Although, Agapova does absorb 4.35 strikes per minute, but she has never been finished by strikes. I expect Agapova’s aggression and power will carry her to a knockout victory in Round 1. She happens to be Awesemo’s highest projected fighter on the slate, with 92% win odds.

Pedro Munhoz | DraftKings: $9,000, FanDuel: $21

Munhoz’s speed and power should carry him to a comfortable victory, his wrestling is better than Edgar’s and his guillotine is probably the best in the game. If this fight goes five rounds, Edgar could do enough to keep it close, but I expect this fight to end inside the distance. Munhoz will use his speed and power-striking to pick the fading Edgar apart, I expect Munhoz to land a big shot early and finish Edgar in the first round. Awesemo’s UFC Fighter projections have Munhoz projected as the second-highest fighter on the slate, with a 52% chance for a knockout.

UFC DFS Mid-Priced Picks

Dwight Grant | DraftKings: $8,900, FanDuel: $19

Grant knocked out Tyler Hill on the “Contender Series” to earn a UFC contract. He is a powerful striker; he will need to let his hands go and land more volume in this fight. Grant is the better striker and probably more likely to get the knockout. In this fight, if Grant can be more active and push the pace, he should be able to use his power striking to secure a victory. Grant is projected as the fourth highest fighter on the slate, according to Awesemo’s UFC Fighter projections.

Mizuki Inoue | DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: $16

Inoue is a technical striker; her striking has been phenomenal to start her UFC career. She is averaging 6.20 significant strike per minute, although the one problem she absorbs 8.20 strikers per minute. Inoue should look to get this fight to the mat, whereas she will have an edge and is certainly the more dangerous fighter on the ground. Awesemo’s projections give Inoue 56% win odds.

UFC DFS Value Picks

Matthew Semeisberger | DraftKings: $7,700, FanDuel: $15

Semeisberger is making his UFC debut, he is on a three-fight win streak and all coming by way of knockout. This is a risky value play, but he has the power to put Minus to sleep. In this fight, If Semeisberger can avoid the speedy strikes of Minus and close the distance, he should be able to land a power counterpunch and put Minus on the mat. Awesemo’s UFC DFS fighter projections give Semeisberger 48% win odds, with a 37% chance for a knockout.

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