NASCAR DFS Value Picks: Top DraftKings & FanDuel Plays for Federated Auto Parts 400 (Sunday, August 14)

The field is set for Sunday’s race at Richmond with Kyle Larson and Ross Chastain on the front row. Let’s delve into this week’s top Fantasy NASCAR picks and value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS lineups for the Federated Auto Parts 400.

Fantasy NASCAR DFS Value Picks: Federated Auto Parts 400

Kyle Larson, 1st ($10,300 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)

To save rehashing a point that was made earlier this week; for those who haven’t read the Federated Auto Parts 400 NASCAR DFS Preview, be sure to check that out. Essentially, with the hiccups that come in the first year of a new car, NASCAR has unfortunately recreated racing at short tracks that existed a few seasons ago during the high-horsepower, high-downforce era of the Generation Six era. Within that racing, it’s tough to purely out race the driver out front as they have clean air at their disposal and create a trail of dirty air that acts like a buffer to anyone behind them. At Richmond, and its corollary venues (Phoenix, Martinsville, New Hampshire), the driver starting first has led lap totals of 143, 128. 185, and 172 and if not for pit stops, these numbers would be larger.

This is all to say, don’t overthink starting lineups with the pole sitter this week. NASCAR has no plans to manipulate the car, although be cognizant that they might at Martinsville, which should mean early domination via the pole sitter once again. In this situation, people may be hesitant to just slam in Larson like it is 2021, especially with practice times that weren’t top 10 until the later 15 and 20 consecutive lap segments. That said, with the preferred groove and no competition caution, Larson can set sail on Ross Chastain.

It is worth noting, that Kyle Larson has fair finishes to his name at Richmond with three top-six efforts at Richmond in his past five starts here. However, he’s averaging under two laps led per race and in this season’s corollary races to Richmond, that number falls under one lap led per event. Go back to last year and Larson started on the pole in the fall 2021 Richmond race, and he led a grand total of eight laps. This is all to say, Larson is in a prime position to wrack up a ton of dominator points but flat and short tracks are the one Goliath this David hasn’t conquered yet.

Martin Truex Jr, 6th ($10,600 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

Besides focusing on the pole sitter, another feature of the Generation Seven car at short/ flat tracks has been where the driver who either leads the most or second-most laps starts. If the pole sitter doesn’t lead the most laps, then it has come from a driver who starts in the top 10. At Phoenix, this came from Chase Briscoe who started sixth. At the Spring edition of this race, the driver who led the most laps after the pole sitter came from the driver starting second, meanwhile, the drivers who started sixth and ninth led 60+ laps themselves. Fast forward a week to Martinsville, and William Byron, fresh off his Trucks win on Thursday night, leads the most laps from the fifth starting spot. Finally, a month ago at New Hampshire, the drivers who led the second and third most laps behind Martin Truex Jr. (172) started fifth and third.

With this in mind, DFS players should narrow their perspective “dominator” pool down to the top 10, which brings us to Truex rolling off the grid in sixth. Truex has been absolutely masterful of late at Richmond, regardless of what package NASCAR throws at this venue. Dating back to his days at Furniture Row, he has led 1,237 combined laps (112.45 on average) over the past 11 Cup races at Richmond with just two races where he failed to lead a lap. In the other nine events, he has led at minimum 80 laps, which he has done in back-to-back Richmond races. Over that same time period, he has eight top-five finishes including three wins with two wins coming during the high-horsepower, high-downforce era.

Furthermore, with Truex out of the playoffs now, trailing Ryan Blaney by 19 points, Richmond represents his best opportunity to win and earn his way into the playoffs and not have to sweat things out at Watkins Glen and Daytona.

Tyler Reddick, 26th ($8,800 DraftKings, $ 8,800 FanDuel)

Richmond has recently been a track dominated by Toyota, although that hasn’t always panned out in the winner’s category. However, practice metrics are generally topped by Toyotas, but this weekend it appears the Chevrolets may have shown up with just as much speed, if not more. Part of that Chevrolet cohort includes Reddick, who ran second-fastest in both the single lap and consecutive five-lap average. Oddly, like fellow Chevy drivers Chase Elliott and Daniel Suarez who had top-10 speed, they all managed to post poor qualifying efforts but Reddick starts the furthest back of these three. Furthermore, he has three top-15 results in four Cup races at Richmond plus ninth-place results at Phoenix and New Hampshire of this year.

Justin Haley, 30th ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)

It just doesn’t pay to go cheap at Richmond. The traditional punt plays of JJ Yeley (35th), BJ McLeod (36th), Cody Ware (28th), and Landon Cassill (25th) all struggle to keep up with the rest of the pack and ended up getting lapped multiple times over throughout the race. Yes, there are several high-priced dominator and place differential plays on the board, and utilizing one of these four drivers will make those lineups come together. However, more often than not, these cheap access drivers turn into anchors that sabotage the potential of a stud and dud build.

The cheapest driver any NASCAR DFS player, regardless of playing on DraftKings or FanDuel, should consider utilizing is Haley starting 30th. His history at Richmond suggests a driver who won’t pick up too many more spots, compared to where he began the race, but with the 10th-fastest single lap in practice and the 11th fastest consecutive five-lap average, he appears to have the means to advance his way through the field and be a threat for a top-20 finish, a feat he has accomplished in this year’s three corollary races to Richmond.


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Aric Almirola, 32nd ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

For those perusing through practice numbers, it’s going to A) be a shock to see Almirola posting top-five numbers in all practice categories, and B) to see his starting position in spite of those numbers. However, he got loose during his qualifying effort and now starts mired back in the field. Now, one of Saturday’s fastest drivers appears ready to make a run through the field and be a long-shot contender with his rocket. Almirola, much like Martin Truex Jr., is in a win-and-in situation in what is supposedly his last professional full-time season in NASCAR.

The truth is, even without his practice speeds and narrative, Almirola would still be a firm cash-game play because of his place differential upside at a track he had three straight top-15 finishes at before his 22nd-place result last Spring. But with speed and a playoff narrative, he has a strong play regardless of the site or format.

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Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com

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