NASCAR DFS Picks: Auto Trader EchoPark Automotive 500 DraftKings & FanDuel Top Value Plays (Sept 25)

The field is set for Sunday’s race at Texas with Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano on the front row. Let’s delve into this week’s top Fantasy NASCAR DFS picks and value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS lineups for the Auto Trader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Anchors to Build Around

Joey Logano, 2nd ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,00 FanDuel)

William Byron, 3rd ($9,100 DraftKings, 11,000 FanDuel)

Tyler Reddick, 4th ($9,400 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)

Starting on the pole is a great benefit to leading at Texas (just ask Kyle Busch about this year’s All-Star race) but it’s definitely not the advantage that supersedes speed, like say Martinsville in a few weeks. Thus, even though Brad Keselowski posted a blazing lap in qualifying, and had top-10 speed in the single lap and consecutive five-lap rankings, he’s not the cheap savior that he may appear to be in cash games.

DFS players must remember that Keselowski only has one finish better than 24th in his four races at intermediate tracks in 2022 with an average running position of 23.1 in those four events. Furthermore, Keselowski’s green flag speed rankings have gone 26th, 17th, 11th, and 19th in those same events. While Keselowski may hold on to the lead initially, he could easily lose the lead on the first pit stop, and then it becomes a waiting game to see how far he falls back and negates his dominator points with negative place differential.

Thus, enters the fray of Logano, Byron, and Reddick. Joey Logano appears situated best to take over the lead as he was faster than Keselowski in the short and long-run practice metrics. However, Logano has yet to finish better than 14th at any of the races at 1.5-mile ovals.

William Byron ran incredibly strong in this race last season, finishing second and leading the second-most laps, and was a factor at most intermediates during the 2021 playoffs. In the most recent race at an intermediate, Byron finished sixth.

Finally, there’s the wildcard in Tyler Reddick who has nothing but a win to chase, as he’s out of the playoffs, and if the traction compound comes in with Sunday’s heat, he could hug the wall for 500 miles and do what everyone expected of him at Kansas. As far as practice speeds go, it appears Reddick may have the fastest car with top-five speed in the short runs and the fastest car in the longer 15- and 20-consecutive lap runs.

These three drivers make the most sense as potential lap leaders, based on practice speeds and starting position, but the fact of the matter is that in these intermediate races the top lap leaders can come from anywhere in the field. Expect the starting range of first through ninth (Kyle Larson) to be where the majority of fellow cash players are selecting their two dominators as well.

Fantasy NASCAR DFS Value Picks

Christopher Bell, 22nd ($10,300 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)

For those not wanting to fire multiple rounds at potential lap leaders, this starting grid does offer quite a few “pay up” options with place differential potential. Though the most expensive of these options, Bell does offer lap-leading upside as well as winning potential. When odds opened at BetMGM for this race, Bell opened at +650, barely trailing his teammate Denny Hamlin. His odds reflect a driver that has finished 10th, 5th, 5th, and 3rd in this year’s four races at intermediate tracks. Furthermore, in back-to-back fall races at Texas, Bell has finished third in both occasions. While his car didn’t demonstrate any practice speed worth mentioning, 334 laps present ample opportunity for the 20 team to dial in this car.

Chase Briscoe, 30th ($7,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)

As Kevin Harvick has gone at Texas in the Fall, so usually does the rest of Stewart-Haas. When Harvick was on his string of three-straight victories in this race, drivers like Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola and Daniel Suarez would have results tailing Harvick as it appeared their cars would be tailored to mirror the setup that Harvick and crew chief Rodney Childers had settled on. Thus, with Harvick and the SHR crew back in Texas, the Stewart-Haas drivers deserve cash consideration and Chase Briscoe is chief among them thanks to his 30th starting position. In his rookie campaign, Briscoe started 26th and ended his day in 15th. A similar day should be in order for Briscoe, especially as his eye is on the playoffs, so maximizing playoff points going into Talladega and the Charlotte Roval should be of chief concern to him.

Ty Dillon, 32nd ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel)

DraftKings has provided a myriad of low-priced options this week (surprising for an intermediate venue) and the driver that pops off with the best year-to-date form also happens to start the worst of these options. For the year, Dillon is performing better than the average DFS player, or NASCAR fan, would have thought with finishes of 20th, 20th, 13th, and 20th in the four intermediate races. For context, he’s finished better than his Petty-GMS teammate Erik Jones in all four of these races.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com