The field is set for Sunday’s race at Darlington with Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin on the front row. Let’s commence into this week’s top NASCAR DFS picks, on DraftKings and FanDuel, for the Drydene 400.
Dryden 400 NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel
Martin Truex Junior, 1st ($14,000 FanDuel, $11,900 DraftKings)
Denny Hamlin, 2nd ($13,000 FanDuel, $11,100 DraftKings)
If you’re getting deja vu, don’t adjust your screen. Thanks to NASCAR’s proprietary formula, the same starting duo that we saw at Richmond is now starting together here at Dover. In that Richmond race, the Joe Gibbs teammates combined to lead 314 of 400 laps. On Sunday, expectations should be similar from this duo.
Enthusiasm for Truex and Hamlin is one part driver, one part vehicles, and finally starting position. Truex and Hamlin have been hands down the best drivers in this high-horsepower/low-downforce package with the most laps led and fastest laps on average per race. Hamlin holds a pretty remarkable average running position of 2.9 through these four races. Meanwhile, Truex has won three of the four races in this package. The stars have aligned ladies and gentlemen.
Joe Gibbs appears to have taken the 2020 Penske path to the championship by focusing on the 750-horsepower package. If not for Christopher Bell‘s flat tire with five laps remaining, we could have seen all four JGR cars in the top-six at Darlington.
Finally, we focus on the starting position because this track and this package have placed emphasis on starting up front in terms of who leads laps. You can read more about that in this week’s preview for the Drydene 400. This is all to say, lineups on both DraftKings and FanDuel should be based around these two. If not both, you should have at least one of Hamlin or Truex in every lineup for the Drydene 400.
Kyle Larson, 4th ($13,500 FanDuel, $11,500 DraftKings)
The sentiment on Larson is going to be interesting to gauge this week. After a somewhat disappointing second-place finish at Darlington, ownership considered, NASCAR now returns to the scene of Larson’s last win before his exit from Chip Ganassi. The script for Larson has been to play him at whatever venues he excelled at in the No. 42 for CGR. In that most recent race at Dover for Larson, he started second, finished first, and led 154 laps in the process.
Although this is definitely encouraging, a line has to be drawn between Larson’s performance in the high-horsepower versus low-horsepower package. In this 750-horsepower package, Larson is averaging a running position outside of the top 10 with less than a single lap led per event. Meanwhile, in the 550-horsepower package, Larson has had the best car year to date and could have won three of the four races.
Kevin Harvick, 5th ($11,500 FanDuel, $9,800 DraftKings)
Until we get Harvick in a smash shot, due to place differential upside, he is simply unplayable. His price will always be elevated because of who he is. However, at this salary, dominator points are demanded and he simply isn’t delivering on those. Even in the perfect scenario last weekend at Darlington, Harvick only managed to lead ten laps and gather nine fastest laps in the process of being out front. Reminder, those were his first laps led in the 750-horsepower package all season.
If Harvick couldn’t capitalize on that situation, it’s hard to envision him doing so here at Dover, despite his awesome recent history. We saw last weekend, despite winning two of the three Darlington races in 2020, Harvick and Childers couldn’t game plan a way for Harvick to take advantage of his second starting position. If it didn’t happen then, nothing points to hope for this week.
Kyle Busch, 6th ($12,000 FanDuel, $10,000 DraftKings)
If projections and expectations are so high for Truex and Hamlin, dominator consideration goes to Kyle Busch this weekend as well. In last weekend’s race at Darlington, his prospects were low as it appeared he was creating noticeable splits in the two different packages with results favoring the low-horsepower/high-downforce setup. However, even after spinning out in the first segment, Busch ran well last weekend finishing third. With our transition to Darlington’s closest corollary, we have to consider Busch as a potentially low-owned dominator option.
If you’re tired of looking at Darlington to help direct your path at Dover, consider last year’s first Drydene 311 race where Busch started 22nd and races his way to third. His results have continued to improve in the 750-horsepower package and if all he really needs is an abundance of laps, Sunday’s Drydene 400 should be enough to see him compete with his fellow JGR teammates.
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Ross Chastain, 20th ($5,000 FanDuel, $6,500 DraftKings)
Sunday’s 15th-place finish at Darlington marked Chastain’s eighth straight top-20 finish. In fact, Chastain’s only finish worse than 23rd is his 39th at the Daytona Road Course. Every other finish is what you would expect out of a competent driver in mid-tier equipment. Projections will peg Chastain for another top-15 finish, acceptable for his salary on both websites. It appears DraftKings is going to make picking drivers in the $6,000 range tough for most weeks. In that case, just side with consistency, even in the surprising form it’s taken in Chastain.
Aric Almirola, 32nd ($7,500 FanDuel, $8,200 DraftKings)
Recency bias is going to make people pause hard before considering Almirola, especially if all they’re doing is looking at box scores. However, are we really going to fault Almirola for getting run over by Ricky Stenhouse Jr.? Almirola, even for all of his foibles in 2021, is still a top-16 driver in a top-16 car. Almirola could be your third driver in cash games and a strong consideration in tournaments thanks to his place differential upside.
Before last weekend’s unfortunate accident, Almirola’s worst finish in this package was 20th at Martinsville paired with 11th at Phoenix and sixth at Richmond. In his last six starts at Dover, his worst finish is 17th (twice) followed by a seventh-place finish in the Sunday Drydene 311.
What About the Punts?
After reviewing the optimal lineups for the previous four races using the 750-horsepower package, “punts” are being overvalued. So far in 2021, two punts have been in optimal lineups. At Martinsville, James Davison managed to make the optimal lineup on both DraftKings and FanDuel after finishing 22nd from his 37th starting position. Even then, in a 500 lap race, just one punt play managed to be optimal. Fast forward to Richmond a week later, and Corey LaJoie makes the optimal lineup on DraftKings with his 38 fantasy points following a 21st-place finish.
Two out of four races having an optimal punt doesn’t sound overvalued … Yet, Davison peaked via attrition in a race with numerous cautions, seven drivers who wrecked out and was still six laps down. LaJoie’s situation was simply him starting too far back and finishing two laps down with four other drivers. Thus, their viability boils down to those two factors. First, can they gain double-digit place differential? Second, in doing so, can they finish near or around 20th? This week doesn’t present us with any of those opportunities.
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