Gas-N-Go: NASCAR DFS DraftKings Picks for ToyotaCare 250 Trucks Race | 4/17

The field is set for Saturday’s Trucks race at Richmond with Ben Rhodes and Austin Hill on the front row. Let’s get into the top DraftKings NASCAR DFS picks for the ToyotaCare 250.

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NASCAR DFS DraftKings Picks for ToyotaCare 250 Trucks

Who Will Be the Early Leader?

The main question to tackle, Kyle Busch and his preposterous salary, will be covered later. With Busch starting 12th, someone is going to lead initially. It is just a question of who and how much before Busch finds his way to the lead.

There are just a few names to consider among cars starting ahead of Busch, and any car starting behind him has little chance of being dominator. By process of elimination, gamers safely eliminate Raphael Lessard, Todd Gilliland, Austin Wayne Self, and Tanner Gray. For the sake of the argument, starting behind or around Busch are Carson Hocevar, Hailie Deegan, Chase Purdy and Ryan Truex. Over the past 10 races at venues measuring one mile or shorter, this gaggle of eight drivers has all combined to lead 30 total laps, with Lessard and Gilliland responsible for 24 of 30. With the drivers still in the prospective dominator pool, here is how they would rank in order of likelihood to garner dominator points:

  • Grant Enfinger, 3rd ($9,500) – Winner of last year’s Richmond and Martinsville races.
  • Ben Rhodes, 1st ($8,300) – Underpriced, led 65 laps in this race last year before finishing third.
  • Zane Smith, 6th ($9,800) – The resume is small but has led at least 20 laps in four of his six short track races.
  • Austin Hill, 2nd ($10,100) – Led the second-most laps in last year’s Richmond race, just a matter of beating Rhodes off the line.
  • Sheldon Creed, 9th ($10,500) – The Trucks Series most recent winner at Phoenix.

Kyle Busch, 12th ($16,500)

Busch is the outright favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook at -130 to win. The next closest driver is teammate John Hunter Nemechek at +750 and then Matt Crafton at +1000. That’s a chasm, and for good reason when discussing Kyle Busch versus the Trucks field.

Interestingly enough, since NASCAR started limiting how many times Cup drivers could race in the Trucks and Xfinity Series, Busch has consistently made his starts at intermediate tracks. This will be Busch’s first start at something smaller than a 1.5-mile track since his Martinsville win in 2019. Before that, he had another win in 2017, so his limited seat time has been even more limited at shorter venues. As per Richmond, this is Busch’s first start here since 2005, a 30th-place finish for Billy Ballew in the No. 15 truck.

The only question is, can Busch lead enough laps and grab enough fastest laps to pay off this salary? With 250 laps, the answer is a resounding yes. Add in 11 presumed place differential points, and his floor increases that much. If building one or three lineups, play Busch in every one. If doing 20-max, play Busch in over 60% of them. Make Busch the priority play.

Brett Moffitt, 17th ($9,000)

On paper, Moffitt may be one of the best short-track drivers in the Series. He has led 422 of 1,223 laps but only has one win in his past 10 races at venues measuring a mile or shorter. However, nine of those 10 races were for GMS in No. 24 and No. 23. Now, he’s in a considerable downgrade racing the No. 45 for Al Niece.

This being said, Moffitt does have a path to being optimal. First, he needs a top-eight finish, which he can pull off. Second, he’s going to need Busch to ascend to the lead sooner rather than later. The fewer dominator points the likes of Rhodes, Smith, Enfinger and Crafton accrue, the more likely it is Moffitt will outscore them with his place differential points.

“Tell Yourself a Story” drivers like Moffitt are never exciting, guys who need a lot to happen for them to be viable. However, his scenarios are likely to happen, so Moffitt is on the board in tournaments.


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Pick a Punt — Any Punt — from Randy Young

Whenever a driver priced above $15,000 becomes a priority play, the punt plays do as well in order to make lineups work. There are three viable punt plays at or below $5,000 this week who all drive for Randy Young. To be frank, there really isn’t anything that separates Kris Wright from Tate Fogleman from Spencer Boyd. Fogleman and Boyd both finished top 2o in this race last season. Boyd followed that up with 15th at Martinsville and 25th at Gateway. Meanwhile, Fogleman went 36th at Martinsville and then 18th at Gateway.

The main thing with this trio is they’ll at least compete. The same can’t be said for Keith McGee, Jennifer Jo Cobb or Norm Benning.

Timmy Hill, 34th ($7,000)

Running a limited schedule, this will only be the second time Hill has been in the Trucks Series this year. Don’t let the Hill from the Cup Series skew opinion of Hill in the Trucks Series. Hill does not always race in Trucks, but when he does, he tends to compete. Since the start of the 2020 season, Hill only has one DNF — an overheating issue at Las Vegas.

Hill made two spot starts last season at shorter venues in the Trucks Series. He finished ninth at Richmond and followed that up with 14th at Martinsville. Hill should be in for another top-15 finish and what could be close to 50 DraftKings points, giving him 7x value.

Ryan Reed, 39th ($5,300)

If this name rings familiar, think back to the inaugural season of Xfinity DFS. With two career wins and seven top-five finishes in 171 career Xfinity starts, he has somehow found his way back to the Trucks Series driving for Ray Ciccarelli — the No. 49 of Ray Ciccarelli which is making its second start of the season on its fifth attempt due to DNQs and withdrawals at Daytona, the Daytona Road Course and Atlanta.

In the lone race this team started this season, Andrew Gordon drove from dead last to 31st, finishing nine laps down. In 2020, this truck made 17 starts and only had four DNFs. This is the fear of playing a cheap driver racing for  Ciccarelli. If the car cooperates, Reed should finish the race. But now it’s a matter of how bad this truck is and how many laps down Reed will finish.

In a similar race at Gateway, Tim Veins drove this truck to a 27th-place finish. In this race last season, Ciccarelli himself finished 31st. If 27th through 31st is the range of outcomes for Reed, he’s fine as a cash play to make the lineup work. However, in tournaments, it is better to save a little bit of salary with one of the Randy Young drivers who should outscore Reed thanks to their finishing position points.


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Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com

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