The field is set for Saturday’s race at Bristol with Aric Almirola and Chase Briscoe on the front row. Let’s delve into this week’s top Fantasy NASCAR DFS picks and value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS lineups for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Anchors to Build Around
Denny Hamlin, 4th ($11,500 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)
Kyle Larson, 5th ($10,800 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)
Kevin Harvick, 7th ($8,500 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)
With 500 laps on tap, there are more than enough dominator points to go around for multiple drivers to be considered the cornerstones of a cash lineup. The three at the top of the board to consider happen to be three of the fastest drivers from Friday’s practice. They also happen to have some of the best course histories at Bristol. DFS players shouldn’t be looking to jam all three in a lineup, but these guys make solid options. Any cash-style lineup should use at least two of them.
Denny Hamlin won here in the Fall race of 2019 (high horsepower, high downforce correlation) and he is averaging 56.6 laps led since 2019. He ranked first in the single-lap, as well as the consecutive five and 10-lap averages in this week’s practice. However, there is some concern about a steering issue that might force him to the rear. Keep an eye on that situation.
Kyle Larson won this race last year after leading 175 laps and he ranked fastest in the 15, 20, and 25 consecutive lap averages. As the weekend goes on, and especially after what was witnessed in the Trucks race, it may be really tough to pass anyone up front and with that sort of long-run speed, Larson could easily replicate last year’s results and just sit on the lead for a large portion of the night.
Speaking of last year’s race, Harvick could have potentially won that event if not for Chase Elliott playing spoiler and allowing his teammate to pass him late. Harvick won the Fall 2020 version of this race after leading a staggering 226 laps. Harvick has finished second and first and led nearly 300 combined laps in back-to-back Bristol Fall events. Plus, Harvick wasn’t his typical self sand-bagging practice as he dropped mid-level short-run speeds but then picked up the pace with the second-fastest times in the longer runs. With the points hole he’s been placed in, the focus is clear for the 4 team. It appears that Harvick and Childers have the setup in the right direction and should only continue to get better as the night goes on.
Fantasy NASCAR DFS Value Picks: Hollywood Casino 400
Joey Logano, 15th ($9,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
This is one of the few times a cash play is also an arbitrage play. While not the fastest in any speed category, short or long, Logano did demonstrate consistent top-10 and even top-five speed throughout the practice session. That is something that neither the much higher-owned and more expensive Kyle Busch or Chase Elliot can boast.
That is why Logano is an arbitrage play. He offers a similar upside (laps led, fastest laps, finishing position) to Busch, Elliott and Truex, who all start six or more positions behind him but at a cheaper salary compared to all three. Furthermore, he comes into Bristol with an absolute head of steam with four top-10 finishes in his past six races. He has lead the field in laps led (52.8) by a large margin during that stretch, which includes a fourth-place finish two weeks ago at Darlington on top of his win there earlier in the Spring.
Austin Dillon, 28th ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
Dillon is on the cusp of advancing to the second round of the playoffs, but finds himself in an uphill battle mired back in the field from the waving of the green flag. However, Austin Dillon fans shouldn’t fret as he has run fairly strong at Bristol with finishes of 14-34-6-12-15 in his past five starts here. His practice speeds were terrible in both short and long runs, and that same lack of speed reared its head in qualifying. However, with 500 laps on tap, Dillon will have plenty of time to maneuver through the field and make the proper adjustments needed as this track finds more and more grip as the sun sets.
DraftKings DFS players might find themselves making the hard decision whether to play Dillon or Daniel Suarez in cash. Both appear to be identical plays this week; their salaries, practice speeds and past Bristol metrics couldn’t be more similar. If forced to pick just one on DraftKings, Dillon should be the choice based on the salary savings (which could be big this week as multiple, high-priced dominators are in play). Dillon comes into Bristol with no finish outside of the top-20 since Michigan, whereas Daniel Suarez only has four such results.
Ty Dillon, 34th ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel)
Ty Dillon is probably going to go a lap down. In fact, he’ll probably go multiple laps down. He’s only finished on the lead lap at Bristol in one of his past four races here. That’s okay because for cash purposes he isn’t needed to be a lead lap driver. For tournaments that argument changes his worthiness for your lineups. Regardless, in his price range on DraftKings and FanDuel, he’s the most viable option to move from his starting position and grab place differential. In those aforementioned four starts (all for the RCR-affiliated Germain Racing 13) Dillon had three finishes of 20th or better.
Dillon had results of 12th and 22nd in a somewhat similar track, Darlington (corollary based on steep banking), What may go overlooked is Dillon’s momentum going into Bristol with six finishes of 22nd or better in all six events. Without a seat for 2023, and certain that he deserves one, Dillon is looking to close out the regular season strong. Well, as strong as he can with his talent and the ability of his 42 car.
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