NASCAR DFS Picks: Ally 400 Nashville DraftKings + FanDuel

The field is set for Sunday’s race at Nashville Speedway with Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano on the front row. Let’s delve into this week’s top Fantasy NASCAR picks and value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS lineups for the Ally 400.

Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Ally 400 Values

Ross Chastain, 7th ($10,500 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)

Unlike last year’s version of this race, Sunday’s Ally 400 could see several different drivers trade the lead up front, much like what was witnessed a few weeks back at Gateway. Should this scenario play out, it’s almost inevitable that Chastain will be one of those drivers that wrangles the lead away. At this track’s closest corollary (Dover) Chastain led 86 laps before finishing third. At the intermediate tracks of Las Vegas and Charlotte, Chastain didn’t start near the front either but led lap totals of 83 and 153 respectively.

Speed-wise, his practice speeds show a car with plenty of short and long-run speed ranking seventh or better in all consecutive lap categories. Nashville was a track that Chastain looked comfortable at last season finishing second to Kyle Larson, and based on those practice numbers, he appears ready to pick up where he left off in 2021.

As far as pegging a dominator for cash games, DFS players can go in several directions with anyone starting in the top 10. However, Chastain offers savings compared to Larson as well as a touch of place differential, plus he’s averaging the most laps led at the six races at Las Vegas, Dover, Darlington, Kansas, Charlotte, and Gateway.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 25th ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

Stenhouse finds himself returning to a level of normalcy at an oval with respectable practice speeds but a bad hot lap in qualifying. In this race last year, Stenhouse took advantage of track position and finished sixth after starting 14th. Thankfully for Stenhouse, this year’s version of the Ally 400 projects to have a bit more passing than last year’s so he should be able to do what he’s been doing ever since Dover, starting poorly and racing his way through the field. Before his unfortunate 32nd-place finish at Gateway, Stenhouse had gone four for four in top 10 finishes at oval tracks measuring a mile or longer with no finish worse than eighth (Darlington, Kansas). Stenhouse should project out well in the Stokastic NASCAR DFS Projections when they’re released tomorrow, given the price and opportunity for place point differential.

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Bubba Wallace, 30th ($6,500 DraftKings, $ 5,800 FanDuel)

Call it the Michael Jordan effect but Wallace brought a rocket ship to Nashville with the fastest single-lap time as well as the fastest 10 and 15 consecutive lap averages. However, that same speed was not on display during qualifying as Wallace got loose and posted a slow 30.688 lap – a full second slower than his practice time. Thus, DFS players know that Wallace has plenty of speed (as shown in practice, even in the longer runs) but didn’t have a qualifying speed to reflect that. Therefore, it shouldn’t be an issue for Wallace to make his way through the field, and based on his practice speeds, it shouldn’t be a shock if he makes his way into the top 10 by the end of the 300 laps. At the somewhat similar Dover race earlier this spring, Wallace finished 10th.

Todd Gilliland, 33rd ($5,100 DraftKings)

The weekly punt/ best value debate for DraftKings generally boils down to three specific drivers; Gilliland, Ty Dillon, and Harrison Burton. The only Cup time any of these drivers have on this track came in Friday’s practice session, while Gilliland (second) did see this venue last season in the Trucks Series while Burton (third) raced it in the Xfinity Series. Speed-wise, none of these three showed anything impressive ranking 28th or worse in the single-lap speed rankings.

Thus, the debate comes down to starting position and salaries and Gilliland gets the nod with the lowest salary combined with starting the furthest back. It’s not a ringing endorsement for Gilliland, but he’s going to make lineups on DraftKings come together more easily with the highest floor of the conceivable punt plays.

Kyle Busch, 36th ($11,000 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

While several drivers in both the Xfinity and Cup qualifying sessions got loose, Busch was the only one to get squirrelly enough to back into the wall and not complete a qualifying lap. Now the driver with the second-best opening odds to win Sunday’s race starts dead last and becomes a lock-play in cash games and a driver that will be hard to fade in tournaments. Despite his high salary on both sites, if Busch simply replicates his results from Nashville’s similar tracks and finishes in the top five, it will be tough for him to not be optimal beside one or two dominators.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com