The field is set for Saturday’s Trucks race at Watkins Glen, with Austin Hill and Todd Gilliland on the front row. Let’s delve into the top NASCAR DFS Trucks plays in the United Rentals 176 at The Glen on DraftKings.
United Rentals 176 NASCAR DFS Picks on DraftKings
Todd Gilliland, 2nd ($9,300)
Though the Trucks races tend to see lower levels of laps compared to Xfinity or the Cup Series, 72 is still a healthy number of laps. For reference, the Daytona Road Course had just 51 laps, while Circuit of the Americas saw just 41. Regardless, with this number of laps, dominators still need to be kept in the periphery for lineup construction. Especially, when the obvious and easiest path to DFS roster-building is going to stack place differential.
With no previous track history at Watkins Glen, well since the Bush administration, all DFS players have to lean on is current form and trends from previous Xfinity and Cup races. Form-wise, Gilliland has shown a real knack for road courses with his win at COTA and fourth-place finish at the Daytona Road Course. Gilliland is just one of two drivers in Saturday’s field to finish in the top five of both 2021 road course events. In regards to trends; the past three Cup winners have started third or better while the last five Xfinity winners have all come from the front row. Granted there are a fair number of heavy hitters in this field. Yet if trends remain true, the winner should come from upfront, and Gilliland fits the bill of a driver who could win. At BetMGM Gilliland sits second in outright odds to win at +500.
Johnny Sauter, 14th ($7,000)
This is completely narrative-driven, but it is viable so gauge it as deemed appropriate.
Watkins Glen is the last race in the Trucks regular season. After what can only be called a lackluster season, Johnny Sauter is on the verge of missing the playoffs. With a 51-point gap separating himself from the final spot, he cannot overcome that deficit with a good finish. Anything outside of a win will mean he will miss his chance to compete for a championship this year. Thus Sauter and the No. 13 team know exactly what is at stake and the only result that matters to them – a win.
In this season and last, Sauter has not been good in road courses. His best finish was 18th at the Daytona Road Course. However, back when the schedule was not adjusted for the coronavirus, the Trucks Series made an annual start in Canada – a road course where he continually finished in the top 10. With Watkins Glen not resembling either the roval at Daytona or the F1-inspired track in Austin, perhaps Sauter returns to familiar form and performs well at the Glen. With no practice or qualifying, nearly the entire field will be on the same experience level with Watkins Glen. Hopefully, Sauter can use his veteran chops, combined with some strategy, to steal a win and put himself in the playoffs.
Sheldon Creed, 19th ($9,800)
Creed finished first, second and fifth at road courses since last season. He has led 19, 17 and 14 laps at road courses in that span. Both Creed’s finishes (average of 2.7) and laps led totals (51) rank best of all Trucks drivers in Saturday’s field. He is consistently showing up and finishing high while garnering dominator points – all DFS players want in a driver. This week, Creed comes with place differential and potential lower ownership based on drivers at similar prices with more potential place differential. Odds-wise, at BET MGM, Creed ranks third in outright odds at +550 despite this starting position.
Austin Wayne Self, 20th ($5,700)
Finding any sort of respectable value is tough this week. In fact, the bottom end of the salary range is so bad, it should prompt DFS players to not stack as many high-priced place differential drivers as they can. Doing so will place them in the sub $5,000 range where drivers have no viability. Instead, the lowest perceived option on the board should be Self at $5,700.
In his seven career road course starts, in the Trucks Series, his lowest finish was 21st back in the 2018 Canada event. Since the Covid era, his three road course starts have gone 11th, 15th, and 16th. While it is minimal, he does offer some positive place differential and really the only driver, in this price range, who can even sniff hitting 5X or greater value.
AJ Allmendinger, 25th ($10,100)
Due to Chase Purdy‘s positive Covid-19 test, Gallagher Motorsports had to call for a reliever out of the bullpen to fill in the No. 23. Due to restrictions placed on Cup drivers racing in the Trucks Series regular-season finale, GMS tapped the shoulder of one of the best road course drivers NASCAR has had in the last decade – AJ Allmendinger. With this driver change occurring after the field was set on Wednesday, Allmendinger will have to drop to the rear. However, with 72 laps on tap, those 17 spots he will have to regain should be a minor speed bump for the multiple-time road course victor.
This will be Allmendinger’s first Truck start since the 2008 season when he made a spot-start at Fontana for David Dollar. In three partial seasons for three different owners, in 2006 through 2008, Allmendinger never got the opportunity to drive a truck at a road course as they were not on the schedule then. Now he should get an opportunity to shine as his road racing talent is paramount in this field. Plus, he is taking the reins of a top-tier truck and not renting a ride in Randy Young, or Josh Reaume’s equipment.
Timmy Hill, 36th ($7,100)
For those who have read these Trucks picks long enough, they will know anytime Timmy Hill is in the Trucks field he becomes an autoplay. DraftKings has a way of never pricing Hill correctly to reflect either his talent or starting position. For the season, this No. 56 truck has generally been a fringe top-20 vehicle with Timmy Hill behind the wheel. Now Hill starts back in 36th giving him one of the better place differential upsides of anyone in Saturday’s field. When judging that floor against his salary, compared to say two drivers starting below him both above $10,000, then his path to meeting and exceeding value is one of the smoother paths on the board.
For the season, Hill has two road course starts. In a rain-filled COTA race, Hill 24th and back in February at the Daytona Road Course, Hill finished ninth.
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